Buddy1987 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Hate to ask but could you send it my way. My slush has turned to slush. Lmao!! I have nothing to spare. I had freezing rain all day and then whatever the hell is out there now. I can send a snowball is what I believe I can muster up. Did you really not get anything up that way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lmao!! I have nothing to spare. I had freezing rain all day and then whatever the hell is out there now. I can send a snowball is what I believe I can muster up. Did you really not get anything up that way? No I got 2 inches and then mostly ZR all day. But it never hurts to ask for more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 hours ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah, I think so too. We are LOOOOOOONG overdue for a -AO winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We are LOOOOOOONG overdue for a -AO winter The WDI meter for that must surely be at critical mass...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Did eps lose the blocking and ao? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Did eps lose the blocking and ao? The AO trends basically neutral and the NAO slightly positive by the end of the month. Btw that area of +heights on the means focused in the WA is not exactly the block we want. 50-50 high! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 I think after the Christmas trough there will be a brief opportunity. I just think the heights look too high in 50/50 location for the Christmas storm even if it does kind of dive down south and Negative tilt. Gfs para nailed today’s storm pretty well imo. A lot better than the OP. I might start giving it more serious look these days... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Rest up weenies, because we're not done. Lots of chances on overnight GFS and Euro runs. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Rest up weenies, because we're not done. Lots of chances on overnight GFS and Euro runs. Never trusting models again. So whats it show? 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Rest up weenies, because we're not done. Lots of chances on overnight GFS and Euro runs. good to know you saw some potential. I saw Ji's post about losing the AO/blocking on the EPS. that deflated my weenie. 1 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, H2O said: Never trusting models again. So whats it show? 6z GFS is pretty close to an event next Monday 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Very cold OP run post christmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 when is the next one? 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: 6z GFS is pretty close to an event next Monday I'm sure there will be a 5m layer somewhere above me with +20C temps that will show on models 12 hours before the event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 This was a good warmup for an upcoming (date TBD) 50" BECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z GFS is pretty close to an event next Monday Still out there but the GEFS has a whopping 3lps in the location of the GFS :p Although these lps seem to be overshadowed by a cluster of consensus around the great lakes. Seems like a recipe for nothing? Stale airmass, great lakes low. I guess there's time to iron out the details though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 06z GEFS relaxes the NA blocking regime around D10 only to really bring it back toward the end of the run.... That Aleutian low is a very stable feature. A shift east with that low just a bit could send this pattern into a very cold, classic pattern for snow. As it is, plenty of positives to be taken from the advertised pattern.... 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 06z GEFS relaxes the NA blocking regime around D10 only to really bring it back toward the end of the run.... That Aleutian low is a very stable feature. A shift east with that low just a bit could send this pattern into a very cold, classic pattern for snow. As it is, plenty of positives to be taken from the advertised pattern.... Yeah that's a pretty nice look at the end of the run. EPAC looks about as good as we could hope for, and the Atlantic ridge builds further north/west into southern Greenland. Looks like the 0z EPS might be heading in that direction too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 06z GEFS relaxes the NA blocking regime around D10 only to really bring it back toward the end of the run.... That Aleutian low is a very stable feature. A shift east with that low just a bit could send this pattern into a very cold, classic pattern for snow. As it is, plenty of positives to be taken from the advertised pattern.... As you mentioned, positives regarding snowfall and cold. Big differences versus last year at this time. We track. @SimonLeeWx I've annotated the 35-day GEFS (note this is yesterday's run) with my thoughts on the evolution of the U-wind... 5:49 AM · Dec 17, 2020·Twitter Web App Significant wave-1 "attack" on the stratospheric vortex toward late December in recent GFS runs. Z500 anomalies constructively interfere with climo wave-1 pattern. Leads to sig. deceleration & warming in this run & could open door to further wave-2 activity if trop. conducive 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ural blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I wonder if that's a timing issue for these maps. Everything I've seen shows a cold front coming through with possibly some precipitation, and then it getting very cold behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Yeah yeah, even though I grew up in South Philly, I always get pissed when Philly gets crushed with 6 or 14 inches and I get 2 inch or 4 inch events here below the Canal in Middletown. But, anyway you view the event from yesterday I believe it is more of a positive , even for our region, versus a negative. The stat below is interesting from a Philly perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 A continuation of generally nice h5 looks on the extended GEFS. Ends up with this one a month or so from now. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I wonder if that's a timing issue for these maps. Everything I've seen shows a cold front coming through with possibly some precipitation, and then it getting very cold behind the front. Good point sir. Wondered that myself. Timing because the pattern could look great for days but a missed connection and whammy shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good point sir. Wondered that myself. Timing because the pattern could look great for days but a missed connection and whammy shows up The GFS and Euro are pretty in sync with the dump of cold air at Christmas. I'd like to see maybe a reinforcement of that and then a storm running into it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS and Euro are pretty in sync with the dump of cold air at Christmas. I'd like to see maybe a reinforcement of that and then a storm running into it. Probably a brief warm up before the re-load? If it's a day or two that'd be fine, so long as we don't torch back into the 60s or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS and Euro are pretty in sync with the dump of cold air at Christmas. I'd like to see maybe a reinforcement of that and then a storm running into it. You would huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Is it too much to ask for a good old long duration overrunning event with a huge blob of moisture to the south and everyone scores? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You would huh? Well, I'm already at 70% of last year's total, so I guess I shouldn't get too greedy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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