Cobalt Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 6z GFS is pretty close to an event next Monday Still out there but the GEFS has a whopping 3lps in the location of the GFS :p Although these lps seem to be overshadowed by a cluster of consensus around the great lakes. Seems like a recipe for nothing? Stale airmass, great lakes low. I guess there's time to iron out the details though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 06z GEFS relaxes the NA blocking regime around D10 only to really bring it back toward the end of the run.... That Aleutian low is a very stable feature. A shift east with that low just a bit could send this pattern into a very cold, classic pattern for snow. As it is, plenty of positives to be taken from the advertised pattern.... 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 06z GEFS relaxes the NA blocking regime around D10 only to really bring it back toward the end of the run.... That Aleutian low is a very stable feature. A shift east with that low just a bit could send this pattern into a very cold, classic pattern for snow. As it is, plenty of positives to be taken from the advertised pattern.... Yeah that's a pretty nice look at the end of the run. EPAC looks about as good as we could hope for, and the Atlantic ridge builds further north/west into southern Greenland. Looks like the 0z EPS might be heading in that direction too. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 15 minutes ago, poolz1 said: 06z GEFS relaxes the NA blocking regime around D10 only to really bring it back toward the end of the run.... That Aleutian low is a very stable feature. A shift east with that low just a bit could send this pattern into a very cold, classic pattern for snow. As it is, plenty of positives to be taken from the advertised pattern.... As you mentioned, positives regarding snowfall and cold. Big differences versus last year at this time. We track. @SimonLeeWx I've annotated the 35-day GEFS (note this is yesterday's run) with my thoughts on the evolution of the U-wind... 5:49 AM · Dec 17, 2020·Twitter Web App Significant wave-1 "attack" on the stratospheric vortex toward late December in recent GFS runs. Z500 anomalies constructively interfere with climo wave-1 pattern. Leads to sig. deceleration & warming in this run & could open door to further wave-2 activity if trop. conducive 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ural blocking 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I wonder if that's a timing issue for these maps. Everything I've seen shows a cold front coming through with possibly some precipitation, and then it getting very cold behind the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Yeah yeah, even though I grew up in South Philly, I always get pissed when Philly gets crushed with 6 or 14 inches and I get 2 inch or 4 inch events here below the Canal in Middletown. But, anyway you view the event from yesterday I believe it is more of a positive , even for our region, versus a negative. The stat below is interesting from a Philly perspective. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 A continuation of generally nice h5 looks on the extended GEFS. Ends up with this one a month or so from now. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 24 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I wonder if that's a timing issue for these maps. Everything I've seen shows a cold front coming through with possibly some precipitation, and then it getting very cold behind the front. Good point sir. Wondered that myself. Timing because the pattern could look great for days but a missed connection and whammy shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Good point sir. Wondered that myself. Timing because the pattern could look great for days but a missed connection and whammy shows up The GFS and Euro are pretty in sync with the dump of cold air at Christmas. I'd like to see maybe a reinforcement of that and then a storm running into it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS and Euro are pretty in sync with the dump of cold air at Christmas. I'd like to see maybe a reinforcement of that and then a storm running into it. Probably a brief warm up before the re-load? If it's a day or two that'd be fine, so long as we don't torch back into the 60s or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 3 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: The GFS and Euro are pretty in sync with the dump of cold air at Christmas. I'd like to see maybe a reinforcement of that and then a storm running into it. You would huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benjammin Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Is it too much to ask for a good old long duration overrunning event with a huge blob of moisture to the south and everyone scores? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You would huh? Well, I'm already at 70% of last year's total, so I guess I shouldn't get too greedy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 hours ago, Ji said: Did eps lose the blocking and ao? 5 hours ago, CAPE said: The AO trends basically neutral and the NAO slightly positive by the end of the month. Btw that area of +heights on the means focused in the WA is not exactly the block we want. 50-50 high! It is very encouraging that all 3 major ensembles temporarily spike the AO as two TPV lobes merge but all 3 immediately give it the boot and tank the AO again within a couple days. The best news is we are well into the point where the last few years there was ample evidence the look up top was going to be trouble. Especially last year when huge warning flags were there. This year we have the opposite with every sign pointing to a favorable base state of the NAM. 8 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It is very encouraging that all 3 major ensembles temporarily spike the AO as two TPV lobes merge but all 3 immediately give it the boot and tank the AO again within a couple days. The best news is we are well into the point where the last few years there was ample evidence the look up top was going to be trouble. Especially last year when huge warning flags were there. This year we have the opposite with every sign pointing to a favorable base state of the NAM. Yea by this time last year it was pretty evident that we were in store for a pretty sucko winter, even by Mid Atlantic standards. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 1 hour ago, JakkelWx said: That’s a pretty good signal for winter weather on the EC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Canadian pops a low at 192, interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 If we can just get some energy to hang back a bit for a x-mas miracle...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 33 minutes ago, poolz1 said: If we can just get some energy to hang back a bit for a x-mas miracle...... If there were every a year we needed a White Christmas...it's this year!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 37 minutes ago, poolz1 said: If we can just get some energy to hang back a bit for a x-mas miracle...... A fair number of the 12z GEFS members show decent snowfall on xmas eve/xmas morning. Hard to capture it all in a single panel because of timing differences, but you can sort of see it here. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 43 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Canadian pops a low at 192, interesting Start a thread 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Start a thread I know I learned my lesson counting your snowflakes before they fall from this go around...I'll wait for the 24th 12z mesos to get excited and then be skeptical from there 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 How much for Philly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How much for Philly? Philly's gone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Is it too much to ask for a BECS for Christmas after this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 How it started vs how it's going 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 5 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: How it started vs how it's going Today's forecast has a greater spread out in time, although I doubt we achieve some of the upper member's forecasts. May very well consolidate in a more narrow channel, more so negative versus + or neutral, in a few days. That has happened twice in the last 11 days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 17, 2020 Share Posted December 17, 2020 Ying and Yang...... wonder what happens in the East between December 25 th and January 7 th 2021. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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