December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, frd said:

 

Great trends on keeping the AO negative during December.

Love having that indice in our favor moving forward. 

 

 

 

Whoa...if this keeps up, I'm gonna be saying "solar minimum" all winter long, lol

[PivotPoint]

On 12/13/2020 at 11:44 AM, nj2va said:

Are we sure this is a Nina? 

Funny you say that... Think DT was looking into the possible flip in the ENSO state that might happen during winter. Basically flipping from low Nina to neutral. Perhaps if that is taking place and we finally get some cyclical blocking periods this winter... We can actually have a winter that has threats throughout. Not just one period of 2-3 weeks, which stinks.

11 hours ago, poolz1 said:

Cherrypicked....

This pattern doesnt look to go anywhere soon...and maybe improve to include some real cold to work with. -EPO joins the party.

Stable looking pattern.

 

Great to see AO continue to prog negative. EPO joining the party will help with our ridging out west.

[Ji]

@psuhoffmanwhen is this pattern finally going to produce?

[ers-wxman1]

If the NAM is “out of range” and mauls the area with snow it’s hugged and adored by all and they can’t wait for the next run, much the same over the weekend with the GFS and Euro giving 15-20 inches “out of range” at day 5 with 90 pages of comments. When the NAM is unfavorable and analyzed its bad, out of range and nobody wants to see it or hear about it. 

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said:

If the NAM is “out of range” and mauls the area with snow it’s hugged and adored by all and they can’t wait for the next run, much the same over the weekend with the GFS and Euro giving 15-20 inches “out of range” at day 5 with 90 pages of comments. When the NAM is unfavorable and analyzed its bad, out of range and nobody wants to see it or hear about it. 

Did you mean to put this in the other thread?

And ya know that's the psychology around here...yeah it doesn't make any sense, but that's how it is, lol But please don't stop posting...we need more mets here, to break down the good, the bad, and the ugly!

[North Balti Zen]

Dude, they chat about 15-day upper air patterns --- GOOD OR BAD --- in this thread all the time. That is what this thread is for. And everyone understands that it is LONG RANGE and illusory - but if you read through the thread indications of potential periods of blocking or not blocking can be discussed.  You are being deliberately obtuse. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Dude, they chat about 15-day upper air patterns --- GOOD OR BAD --- in this thread all the time. That is what this thread is for. And everyone understands that it is LONG RANGE and illusory - but if you read through the thread indications of potential periods of blocking or not blocking can be discussed.  You are being deliberately obtuse. 

I think his arguments are directed at the NAM talk in the other thread.

[ers-wxman1]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Did you mean to put this in the other thread?

And ya know that's the psychology around here...yeah it doesn't make any sense, but that's how it is, lol But please don't stop posting...we need more mets here, to break down the good, the bad, and the ugly!

I’m happy to post here but every time I post anti snow or show a trend and give an analysis it’s taken as negative or harsh. I watched over the weekend at day 5 model hugging the snowiest solutions, it’s rare for it to work out that way area wide especially with such a marginal temperature setup. Conversations among colleagues can get like this...diverging opinions and Mets can be sensitive I will say that. But inevitably, the very grids a forecaster makes come from a blend of every model you see out there including the NAM, SREF, GFS, EURO etc its a blend of all and ensembles. You can gain clues into how a system is evolving from the NAM even at 48 and 60 hours. Take all the runs today...all of them are trending toward a well north and west setup of snow, rain more dominant east and you can’t just toss the NAM it’s showing this consistently run after run. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Dude, they chat about 15-day upper air patterns --- GOOD OR BAD --- in this thread all the time. That is what this thread is for. And everyone understands that it is LONG RANGE and illusory - but if you read through the thread indications of potential periods of blocking or not blocking can be discussed.  You are being deliberately obtuse. 

If you're referring to @ers-wxman1's comment above, he may have intended that for the other thread about this upcoming event.  I don't think he's being "obtuse".

I'd rather have far fewer @Ji-type comments with sarcastic (and whining) posts about how a 240 hour forecast took away his 15" snow or how getting a foot is somehow a fail...and far more @ers-wxman1-type posts that are loaded with useful and informed content, even if a bit jaded at some people's attitudes and occasionally harsh on the reality of marginal setups!

[ers-wxman1]

1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

If you're referring to @ers-wxman1's comment above, he may have intended that for the other thread about this upcoming event.  I don't think he's being "obtuse".

I'd rather have far fewer @Ji-type comments with sarcastic (and whining) posts about how a 240 hour forecast took away his 15" snow or how getting a foot is somehow a fail...and far more @ers-wxman1-type posts that are loaded with useful and informed content, even if a bit jaded at some people's attitudes and occasionally harsh on the reality of marginal setups!

My apologies. Wrong thread.

[North Balti Zen]

He is being deliberately obtuse - we have had medium and long range threads for YEARS and anyone who wanders into one sees discussion, some serious, much not, over things that are phantoms. He knows this.

[ers-wxman1]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

He is being deliberately obtuse - we have had medium and long range threads for YEARS and anyone who wanders into one sees discussion, some serious, much not, over things that are phantoms. He knows this.

Get a grip! I accidentally posted here instead of the other thread.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, ers-wxman1 said:

My apologies. Wrong thread.

No apologies needed...I don't think the particular thread you put that in matters all that much.  I knew what you were talking about.  What you mentioned could apply to damn near any event around here to be honest, in terms of model hugging, tossing, etc.  I'll admit myself to being weenie-ish when it comes to snow (we all are to an extent, aren't we?), but I also have to respect the science and reality of what's being shown, even if it's not favorable.

[ers-wxman1]

Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

No apologies needed...I don't think the particular thread you put that in matters all that much.  I knew what you were talking about.  What you mentioned could apply to damn near any event around here to be honest, in terms of model hugging, tossing, etc.  I'll admit myself to being weenie-ish when it comes to snow (we all are to an extent, aren't we?), but I also have to respect the science and reality of what's being shown, even if it's not favorable.

I definitely agree 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

On a lighter note, all this talk of being "obtuse" makes me think of one of my all-time favorite movies, "Shawshank Redemption"...

 

[JakkelWx]

Blocking pattern looks well established to continue into the first/second week of January at least for now. The pacific should improve as well

[AlexD1990]

Anything about stormieness around Christmas? Some of us aren't getting shite from Wednesday and are trying to look ahead.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Anything about stormieness around Christmas? Some of us aren't getting shite from Wednesday and are trying to look ahead.

Sent from my SM-G975U using Tapatalk
 

I think we have to wait until Jan.  

[mattie g]

GFS sets up a heck of a block right around Christmas.

[clskinsfan]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

if we are tracking a snowstorm now....and we are tracking more winter weather after Christmas into January...when are we suppose to get our dreaded La Nina Winter?

I am honestly starting to wonder if Enso state actually means anything at all when it comes to winters in the Mid Atlantic. 

[JakkelWx]

Southeast trough

[yoda]

From @griteater

27 minutes ago, griteater said:

Today's Euro Weekly Control Run (Jan 2 - Jan 29)  

 

[yoda]

hmmm... from this morning's LWX AFD

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lingering upslope snow showers may persist Friday, but
otherwise, just dry and chilly with a brisk northwest flow as
the storm continues moving away and high pressure slowly builds
in. Warming trend slowly takes hold this weekend as high
pressure shifts south of the region and a southwesterly flow
develops. Then a digging northern trough and a southern stream
disturbance could try to get together early next week. Still
lots of uncertainty and moving parts here so not any confidence
in another significant storm, as the whole thing could pass with
just a shower, but something to watch after the current system
passes. Temps will be milder just ahead of a cold front Monday,
but cold air will be moving in behind it quickly.

[BristowWx]

Maybe the next storm will be colder. 

[Ji]

Maybe the next storm will be colder. 

What storm. Gfs bone dry at 6z

[frd]

 

Now this I like, looking better and better upstream.  

Possible implications for late December and early January if we develop the + PNA / - EPO.  

[Heisy]

We’re going to have plenty of opportunities. This one is tough to swallow for cities point SE, but it’s only mid December. Can tell already this winter will produce. 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

We’re going to have plenty of opportunities. This one is tough to swallow for cities point SE, but it’s only mid December. Can tell already this winter will produce. 

You must be new to the area lol

[baltosquid]

06z GFS there’s a low flirting with the 50/50 spot (been bouncing around for a few runs) and plenty of cold to go around on Christmas Eve, just can’t get anything to make use of it. I know the pattern looks better after Christmas, but I can dream.

[BristowWx]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe the next storm will be colder. 

What storm. Gfs bone dry at 6z

Figuratively.  At some point there will be a storm.  And maybe it will be colder.  I got nothin’