Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Those surface maps are not accurate, for the umteenth time. The 6z GFS is a classic NW of fall line snowstorm, with some mixing on the SE edge. For DC to BWI points east, the surface gets toasty for a good part of Wed, and 925 mb temps are also problematic. 850s actually look ok this run. I-95 and east will need some serious dynamical cooling during the day Wed to overcome the warming lower levels, and then hope the backside delivers at night as the low pulls away from the coast. And as for the CAD? Will that help any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And as for the CAD? Will that help any? It will, but for the lowlands it will get scoured out if that low track is tucked in for a time as advertised. At that point its a matter of how much time elapses before the colder air gets back in. A lot of elements in play there depending on one's exact location and developing dynamics. Baltimore will probably warm above freezing but it may be fairly brief compared to areas further SE. Are you in the northern part of the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: It will, but for the lowlands it will get scoured out if that low track is tucked in for a time as advertised. At that point its a matter of how much time elapses before the colder air gets back in. A lot of elements in play there depending on one's exact location and developing dynamics. Baltimore will probably warm above freezing but it may be fairly brief compared to areas further SE. Are you in the northern part of the city? Yeah, the northeast Baltimore part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Good looks showing up on the gfs op near as we approach x-mas 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, poolz1 said: Good looks showing up on the gfs op near as we approach x-mas Wow. Davis Straits blocking, and higher pressures near Idaho and the NW. Continue the opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, frd said: Wow. Davis Straits blocking, and higher pressures near Idaho and the NW. Continue the opportunities. Are we sure this is a Nina? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Good looks showing up on the gfs op near as we approach x-mas Ice cold in southeast Canada too... 30s below zero a couple frames before this Too bad the track sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Op at range but ens have been highlighting a robust block forming again around this time. 12gfs took the bait big time. Wow! what a block there on Christmas day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Lol what 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 1:19 PM, Buddy1987 said: Calling @Jebman Alert! Incoming nuclear assault! lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Cherrypicked.... This pattern doesnt look to go anywhere soon...and maybe improve to include some real cold to work with. -EPO joins the party. Stable looking pattern. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 hours ago, poolz1 said: Cherrypicked.... This pattern doesnt look to go anywhere soon...and maybe improve to include some real cold to work with. -EPO joins the party. Stable looking pattern. Great trends on keeping the AO negative during December. Love having that indice in our favor moving forward. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 35 minutes ago, frd said: Great trends on keeping the AO negative during December. Love having that indice in our favor moving forward. i guess that is how you beat a La Nina winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 if we are tracking a snowstorm now....and we are tracking more winter weather after Christmas into January...when are we suppose to get our dreaded La Nina Winter? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Great stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: Great trends on keeping the AO negative during December. Love having that indice in our favor moving forward. Whoa...if this keeps up, I'm gonna be saying "solar minimum" all winter long, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On 12/13/2020 at 11:44 AM, nj2va said: Are we sure this is a Nina? Funny you say that... Think DT was looking into the possible flip in the ENSO state that might happen during winter. Basically flipping from low Nina to neutral. Perhaps if that is taking place and we finally get some cyclical blocking periods this winter... We can actually have a winter that has threats throughout. Not just one period of 2-3 weeks, which stinks. 11 hours ago, poolz1 said: Cherrypicked.... This pattern doesnt look to go anywhere soon...and maybe improve to include some real cold to work with. -EPO joins the party. Stable looking pattern. Great to see AO continue to prog negative. EPO joining the party will help with our ridging out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 @psuhoffmanwhen is this pattern finally going to produce? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 If the NAM is “out of range” and mauls the area with snow it’s hugged and adored by all and they can’t wait for the next run, much the same over the weekend with the GFS and Euro giving 15-20 inches “out of range” at day 5 with 90 pages of comments. When the NAM is unfavorable and analyzed its bad, out of range and nobody wants to see it or hear about it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 7 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: If the NAM is “out of range” and mauls the area with snow it’s hugged and adored by all and they can’t wait for the next run, much the same over the weekend with the GFS and Euro giving 15-20 inches “out of range” at day 5 with 90 pages of comments. When the NAM is unfavorable and analyzed its bad, out of range and nobody wants to see it or hear about it. Did you mean to put this in the other thread? And ya know that's the psychology around here...yeah it doesn't make any sense, but that's how it is, lol But please don't stop posting...we need more mets here, to break down the good, the bad, and the ugly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Dude, they chat about 15-day upper air patterns --- GOOD OR BAD --- in this thread all the time. That is what this thread is for. And everyone understands that it is LONG RANGE and illusory - but if you read through the thread indications of potential periods of blocking or not blocking can be discussed. You are being deliberately obtuse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 5 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Dude, they chat about 15-day upper air patterns --- GOOD OR BAD --- in this thread all the time. That is what this thread is for. And everyone understands that it is LONG RANGE and illusory - but if you read through the thread indications of potential periods of blocking or not blocking can be discussed. You are being deliberately obtuse. I think his arguments are directed at the NAM talk in the other thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Did you mean to put this in the other thread? And ya know that's the psychology around here...yeah it doesn't make any sense, but that's how it is, lol But please don't stop posting...we need more mets here, to break down the good, the bad, and the ugly! I’m happy to post here but every time I post anti snow or show a trend and give an analysis it’s taken as negative or harsh. I watched over the weekend at day 5 model hugging the snowiest solutions, it’s rare for it to work out that way area wide especially with such a marginal temperature setup. Conversations among colleagues can get like this...diverging opinions and Mets can be sensitive I will say that. But inevitably, the very grids a forecaster makes come from a blend of every model you see out there including the NAM, SREF, GFS, EURO etc its a blend of all and ensembles. You can gain clues into how a system is evolving from the NAM even at 48 and 60 hours. Take all the runs today...all of them are trending toward a well north and west setup of snow, rain more dominant east and you can’t just toss the NAM it’s showing this consistently run after run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Dude, they chat about 15-day upper air patterns --- GOOD OR BAD --- in this thread all the time. That is what this thread is for. And everyone understands that it is LONG RANGE and illusory - but if you read through the thread indications of potential periods of blocking or not blocking can be discussed. You are being deliberately obtuse. If you're referring to @ers-wxman1's comment above, he may have intended that for the other thread about this upcoming event. I don't think he's being "obtuse". I'd rather have far fewer @Ji-type comments with sarcastic (and whining) posts about how a 240 hour forecast took away his 15" snow or how getting a foot is somehow a fail...and far more @ers-wxman1-type posts that are loaded with useful and informed content, even if a bit jaded at some people's attitudes and occasionally harsh on the reality of marginal setups! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 1 minute ago, Always in Zugzwang said: If you're referring to @ers-wxman1's comment above, he may have intended that for the other thread about this upcoming event. I don't think he's being "obtuse". I'd rather have far fewer @Ji-type comments with sarcastic (and whining) posts about how a 240 hour forecast took away his 15" snow or how getting a foot is somehow a fail...and far more @ers-wxman1-type posts that are loaded with useful and informed content, even if a bit jaded at some people's attitudes and occasionally harsh on the reality of marginal setups! My apologies. Wrong thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 He is being deliberately obtuse - we have had medium and long range threads for YEARS and anyone who wanders into one sees discussion, some serious, much not, over things that are phantoms. He knows this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: He is being deliberately obtuse - we have had medium and long range threads for YEARS and anyone who wanders into one sees discussion, some serious, much not, over things that are phantoms. He knows this. Get a grip! I accidentally posted here instead of the other thread. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, ers-wxman1 said: My apologies. Wrong thread. No apologies needed...I don't think the particular thread you put that in matters all that much. I knew what you were talking about. What you mentioned could apply to damn near any event around here to be honest, in terms of model hugging, tossing, etc. I'll admit myself to being weenie-ish when it comes to snow (we all are to an extent, aren't we?), but I also have to respect the science and reality of what's being shown, even if it's not favorable. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Just now, Always in Zugzwang said: No apologies needed...I don't think the particular thread you put that in matters all that much. I knew what you were talking about. What you mentioned could apply to damn near any event around here to be honest, in terms of model hugging, tossing, etc. I'll admit myself to being weenie-ish when it comes to snow (we all are to an extent, aren't we?), but I also have to respect the science and reality of what's being shown, even if it's not favorable. I definitely agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 On a lighter note, all this talk of being "obtuse" makes me think of one of my all-time favorite movies, "Shawshank Redemption"... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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