Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 There is still room for another 30 or so mile shift either way by Wed night. Exactly where the R/SN line will be TBD. EPS 0z v 6z. Slight tick SE. At least the bleeding to the NW stopped. Does it hold here or continue to drift back either way to be TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB Euro L placement 7pm Wedthis would be the furthest west GEFS member by a good deal. Choosing to hug the GEFS and say we’ve still got room to improve here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I vote Yoda. Couple days back he really kicked off a nice run of model suites that set the stage. Definitely! Or Cape. He had this window of opportunity pegged a few weeks ago if I recall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. That’s the perfect way to put it. Charade is the right word. Some keeping acting like they don’t know how this plays out 15 out of 16 times. 95 crew and even a bit west with this one are probably capped at 6”. Thinking more like 2-4 zone but maybe it pops. Everyone should just head to Leesburg that day. Get some food. Relax. If you’re able Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Anyone willing to answer. Does a stronger low mean more flooding of the mid levels with warmer air above the surface or will this storm just be strictly dependent on the placement of the low and its eventual track? It depends on low placement / track. Typically speaking... a strong SLP doesn’t bode as well for the coast as it does for the interior. Warm air intrusion can be a big concern. As is my concern with this storm along and east of 95. Stronger typically means a closer track to the coast. There’s likely going to be a pretty big snow gradient unless this thing begins trending SE a bit. Snow to Rain E of BAL / DC... a few sloppy inches downtown...3-6” just outside the beltway, and 6-12+“ north of 70 and west of 270. Classic December setup. We get that 1040 HP to anchor in the right location however, and coasties get their boom. Currently, the QPF jackpot is in northern MD / southern PA (1.5 - 2” of qpf looking at deterministic models) - along with the best lift. Need a decent jog SE for I-95 to get in on warning level snowfall unless you live in NJ and points N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: Definitely! Or Cape. He had this window of opportunity pegged a few weeks ago if I recall. Or @MN Transplant for the win! Always bring good juju anyway. LETS GOOO!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ok. This thread is now back to tracking #SantaBomb or #Torchmas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ok. This thread is now back to tracking #SantaBomb or #Torchmas We have a couple of weeks to will the cold air into this one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z Nam looks faster and more amped to my untrained eye, both good things I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: I thought the PV has already started splitting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: If Ellinwood is bullish out here it is on. I am even expecting some mixing out here at this point. The problem is the HP location. The models are wanting to take it a little too far east. Either way I am not gonna complain. Those of us out west look to be in the perfect spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, 40westwx said: you see that coma shaped area of below 0 to the south and west of DC.. I think the model picking up on the dynamics of the system.. it looks like thats where wind shifts around to the north and banding sets up.. I was thinking the same thing. I'm in FFX county just west of FFX City inside that comma zone. We almost always do very well in these kinds of coastals. The maps usually underestimate the frontogenesis dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Tracking this one in Germantown is fun. The margins between mix and 4” and colossal smashing 18” all cut within miles of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: Tracking this one in Germantown is fun. The margins between mix and 4” and colossal smashing 18” all cut within miles of me. New thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Those surface maps are not accurate, for the umteenth time. The 6z GFS is a classic NW of fall line snowstorm, with some mixing on the SE edge. For DC to BWI points east, the surface gets toasty for a good part of Wed, and 925 mb temps are also problematic. 850s actually look ok this run. I-95 and east will need some serious dynamical cooling during the day Wed to overcome the warming lower levels, and then hope the backside delivers at night as the low pulls away from the coast. And as for the CAD? Will that help any? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 37 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And as for the CAD? Will that help any? It will, but for the lowlands it will get scoured out if that low track is tucked in for a time as advertised. At that point its a matter of how much time elapses before the colder air gets back in. A lot of elements in play there depending on one's exact location and developing dynamics. Baltimore will probably warm above freezing but it may be fairly brief compared to areas further SE. Are you in the northern part of the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: It will, but for the lowlands it will get scoured out if that low track is tucked in for a time as advertised. At that point its a matter of how much time elapses before the colder air gets back in. A lot of elements in play there depending on one's exact location and developing dynamics. Baltimore will probably warm above freezing but it may be fairly brief compared to areas further SE. Are you in the northern part of the city? Yeah, the northeast Baltimore part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Good looks showing up on the gfs op near as we approach x-mas 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, poolz1 said: Good looks showing up on the gfs op near as we approach x-mas Wow. Davis Straits blocking, and higher pressures near Idaho and the NW. Continue the opportunities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, frd said: Wow. Davis Straits blocking, and higher pressures near Idaho and the NW. Continue the opportunities. Are we sure this is a Nina? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Good looks showing up on the gfs op near as we approach x-mas Ice cold in southeast Canada too... 30s below zero a couple frames before this Too bad the track sucks 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Op at range but ens have been highlighting a robust block forming again around this time. 12gfs took the bait big time. Wow! what a block there on Christmas day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Lol what 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 1:19 PM, Buddy1987 said: Calling @Jebman Alert! Incoming nuclear assault! lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Cherrypicked.... This pattern doesnt look to go anywhere soon...and maybe improve to include some real cold to work with. -EPO joins the party. Stable looking pattern. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 8 hours ago, poolz1 said: Cherrypicked.... This pattern doesnt look to go anywhere soon...and maybe improve to include some real cold to work with. -EPO joins the party. Stable looking pattern. Great trends on keeping the AO negative during December. Love having that indice in our favor moving forward. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 35 minutes ago, frd said: Great trends on keeping the AO negative during December. Love having that indice in our favor moving forward. i guess that is how you beat a La Nina winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 if we are tracking a snowstorm now....and we are tracking more winter weather after Christmas into January...when are we suppose to get our dreaded La Nina Winter? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 14, 2020 Share Posted December 14, 2020 Great stat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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