osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north? Depends on the track of the low and placement of the high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: You usually have the saddest obs during these events. I expect lots of 33 degree rain reports. My obs are almost always better than DC proper. I think 35 and rain is probably more likely, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north? I think surface temps are OK to start, but if the low track is too far west there will be mixing issues in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north? It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal. This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Stronger vort signature and a bump south. Near perfect pass for the h5 for us to get mega CCB'd... @MillvilleWx was right on it at the 90 hr mark on the 06z EURO h5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually. Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal. This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers. True, but with an epically placed 1040 high we still have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Good morning. Someone start a storm thread! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. I think we have a decent feel for what happens at DCA and Winchester. IAD we may not know until it happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO. Step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good morning. Someone start a storm thread! I vote Yoda. Couple days back he really kicked off a nice run of model suites that set the stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO. Yea, I kinda see it. And this might be too much parsing, but geeze I don’t think I would even call that a shift. I mean, the 0Z has colder temps to SW (albeit those look suspect, I agree). I dunno. Maybe it’s a tick colder. You’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good morning. Someone start a storm thread! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 There is still room for another 30 or so mile shift either way by Wed night. Exactly where the R/SN line will be TBD. EPS 0z v 6z. Slight tick SE. At least the bleeding to the NW stopped. Does it hold here or continue to drift back either way to be TBD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB Euro L placement 7pm Wedthis would be the furthest west GEFS member by a good deal. Choosing to hug the GEFS and say we’ve still got room to improve here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: I vote Yoda. Couple days back he really kicked off a nice run of model suites that set the stage. Definitely! Or Cape. He had this window of opportunity pegged a few weeks ago if I recall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. That’s the perfect way to put it. Charade is the right word. Some keeping acting like they don’t know how this plays out 15 out of 16 times. 95 crew and even a bit west with this one are probably capped at 6”. Thinking more like 2-4 zone but maybe it pops. Everyone should just head to Leesburg that day. Get some food. Relax. If you’re able Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Anyone willing to answer. Does a stronger low mean more flooding of the mid levels with warmer air above the surface or will this storm just be strictly dependent on the placement of the low and its eventual track? It depends on low placement / track. Typically speaking... a strong SLP doesn’t bode as well for the coast as it does for the interior. Warm air intrusion can be a big concern. As is my concern with this storm along and east of 95. Stronger typically means a closer track to the coast. There’s likely going to be a pretty big snow gradient unless this thing begins trending SE a bit. Snow to Rain E of BAL / DC... a few sloppy inches downtown...3-6” just outside the beltway, and 6-12+“ north of 70 and west of 270. Classic December setup. We get that 1040 HP to anchor in the right location however, and coasties get their boom. Currently, the QPF jackpot is in northern MD / southern PA (1.5 - 2” of qpf looking at deterministic models) - along with the best lift. Need a decent jog SE for I-95 to get in on warning level snowfall unless you live in NJ and points N. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: Definitely! Or Cape. He had this window of opportunity pegged a few weeks ago if I recall. Or @MN Transplant for the win! Always bring good juju anyway. LETS GOOO!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ok. This thread is now back to tracking #SantaBomb or #Torchmas 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Ok. This thread is now back to tracking #SantaBomb or #Torchmas We have a couple of weeks to will the cold air into this one. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z Nam looks faster and more amped to my untrained eye, both good things I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: I thought the PV has already started splitting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: If Ellinwood is bullish out here it is on. I am even expecting some mixing out here at this point. The problem is the HP location. The models are wanting to take it a little too far east. Either way I am not gonna complain. Those of us out west look to be in the perfect spot for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, 40westwx said: you see that coma shaped area of below 0 to the south and west of DC.. I think the model picking up on the dynamics of the system.. it looks like thats where wind shifts around to the north and banding sets up.. I was thinking the same thing. I'm in FFX county just west of FFX City inside that comma zone. We almost always do very well in these kinds of coastals. The maps usually underestimate the frontogenesis dynamics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Tracking this one in Germantown is fun. The margins between mix and 4” and colossal smashing 18” all cut within miles of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, ErinInTheSky said: Tracking this one in Germantown is fun. The margins between mix and 4” and colossal smashing 18” all cut within miles of me. New thread... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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