December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

Jan 2011? That was one of my favorite storms!

Yeah that was a fun one.  Got about 4-5 inches pretty quick, and then it was cold after and turned into cement. 

[40westwx]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Tasty

 

I dont see why people are worrying.. unless you live in So MD, this storm is going to be a proper mauling.

[40westwx]

6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

Yeah that was a fun one.  Got about 4-5 inches pretty quick, and then it was cold after and turned into cement. 

I was in Petsmart shopping and I am pretty sure it snowed 2 inches while I was in there... I had to push a guy out of the lot cause he had rear while drive... that one and the Valentines day one a couple of years later were insane...

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, 40westwx said:

I dont see why people are worrying.. unless you live in So MD, this storm is going to be a proper mauling.

I mean I’m a little worried.  We have a storm and some cold coming together which is nice, but we need that ccb to save us if the euro depiction is right, and you know that ccb setting up right over us is no guarantee. 

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, 40westwx said:

I dont see why people are worrying.. unless you live in So MD, this storm is going to be a proper mauling.

If you're south of US50 in MD, this really doesn't seem to be your storm. Maybe advisory level snow if things work out on the back side, but this setup just isn't favorable for far southern MD.

[Weather Will]

28 minutes ago, Ji said:

do you have the low placement?

WB Euro L placement 7pm Wed

[PivotPoint]

1 hour ago, yoda said:

disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol.  It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time.  06z GEFS support that.

No man. 0Z euro and 6z gfs are trending significant my worse for 95 crew. I use snow depth maps instead of snowfall, which most don’t want to look at but are way more realistic especially for cities. 
 

Plain truth is warm layers are farther west. Dca went from 9.9” to 2.4”. One op run but I can’t see how this isn’t worse. Ens are still good but like I’ve said for past couple of days. This will eventually shift more west and this is not surprising, and is not great (no sugar coat) for even those 10-15 miles WEST of the belt way. Great being relative, of course

6z

 

0Z 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

[MN Transplant]

TT has the only GFS snow map worth showing.

[40westwx]

10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I mean I’m a little worried.  We have a storm and some cold coming together which is nice, but we need that ccb to save us if the euro depiction is right, and you know that ccb setting up right over us is no guarantee. 

I have been saying this since Thursday.. all the ingredients are in place for temps to fall right for us.. there is a ton of boom/ upside.  I am pretty sure DCA gets warning level snow.. and that basically means everyone to the north and west gets a MECS

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

TT has the only GFS snow map worth showing.

WRT to the fall line, that looks reasonable.

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[chris21]

5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

No man. 0Z euro and 6z gfs are trending significant my worse for 95 crew. I use snow depth maps instead of snowfall, which most don’t want to look at but are way more realistic especially for cities. 
 

Plain truth is warm layers are farther west. Dca went from 9.9” to 2.4”. One op run but I can’t see how this isn’t worse. Ens are still good but like I’ve said for past couple of days. This will eventually shift more west and this is not surprising, and is not great (no sugar coat) for even those 10-15 miles WEST of the belt way. Great being relative, of course

6z

 

0Z 

Pivotal weather snow depth maps are notoriously inaccurate. I’d prob look at soundings and make your own determination rather than rely the snow depth maps. 

[PivotPoint]

36 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Euro made a 25-30 mile tick to the SE with the progression of the SLP and can be seen looking closely at 925mb and 850mb with the winds and it showed with the depth and extension west of the warmer air within the boundary layer. This was actually a step in the right direction. Also, I think the CAD is underdone considering the surface setup with the HP positioning over Quebec City and a strength of 1038mb. Thicknesses reflected were in line with GFS despite being more robust in the surface reflection. I think this will trend more favorable in the short term. Question is the tuck of the SLP once it gets to ORF. If it stays even 50 miles off the coast, we are looking at an epic run for many. The western crew and northern crew would undoubtedly get obliterated with that run. Absolutely no question. 

Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference  between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks

32 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Not big change but agree that it edged back se this run. Did not continue NW.  I mean every 40 mile shift is huge either way.

What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually.

26 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

It was gonna be epic. No doubt. 5H was pure weather porn

Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington

[Ellinwood]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

 

 

Haha you're fast.

Initial thoughts... It's like 70% Euro 30% GFS. Respecting the Fall Line locally.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

7 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I have been saying this since Thursday.. all the ingredients are in place for temps to fall right for us.. there is a ton of boom/ upside.  I am pretty sure DCA gets warning level snow.. and that basically means everyone to the north and west gets a MECS

I sure hope you’re right, but my confidence isn’t super high at this time that what you’re describing will occur.  Not a ton of wiggle room inside the beltway. 

[poolz1]

Off the current topic... Can ens, GEFS and EPS have the same general look in the LR.  Some potential help on the PAC side while maintaining a favorable ATL.  Looks like we will have chances for the foreseeable future... In the med range, it looks like the blocking regime on the ATL side flexes again right around x-mas and then starts to relax.  Maybe a period to watch as PSU noted yesterday.

[PivotPoint]

Just now, chris21 said:

Pivotal weather snow depth maps are notoriously inaccurate. I’d prob look at soundings and make your own determination rather than rely the snow depth maps. 

Funny I’ve always found them to verify well for marginal setups in nova. They’re typically underdone however when temps are more cooperative. 
 

Too me snowfall maps are the notoriously bad ones. Yea, but sounding is way to go...

This is when it’s suppose to be money time and it’s pouring snow in Winchester. Not here unfortunately 

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said:

Haha you're fast.

Initial thoughts... It's like 70% Euro 30% GFS. Respecting the Fall Line locally.

Your maps are always terrific. I never thought the My Little Pony color scheme was to my liking, but I was wrong.

[Eskimo Joe]

EPS looks better.

[yoda]

5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Funny I’ve always found them to verify well for marginal setups in nova. They’re typically underdone however when temps are more cooperative. 
 

Too me snowfall maps are the notoriously bad ones. Yea, but sounding is way to go...

This is when it’s suppose to be money time and it’s pouring snow in Winchester. Not here unfortunately 

Yet the best guess precip type on all of the soundings at DCA at hr 90 is.... snow.  The entire column is fine till the last 50 meters

[PivotPoint]

By the way to reference my post from two days ago. My snowfall predictions That I posted are almost verbatim what most good Mets are squeaking today... I feel like I’ve nailed this one. Hope I’m wrong:

dc - arlington - McLean  2-6”

great falls, va - Leesburg 6-12”

Bluemont - Winchester 12-16”

west of Winchester, mountains, parts of central pa 14-22”

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, yoda said:

Yet the best guess precip type on all of the soundings at DCA at hr 90 is.... snow.  The entire column is fine till the last 50 meters

Best lift is below the DGZ in that panel. Would probably be wet snow and some ice pellets. Still beats 35 and rain.

[LeesburgWx]

1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

By the way to reference my post from two days ago. My snowfall predictions That I posted are almost verbatim what most good Mets are squeaking today... I feel like I’ve nailed this one. Hope I’m wrong:

dc - arlington - McLean  2-6”

great falls, va - Leesburg 6-12”

Bluemont - Winchester 12-16”

west of Winchester, mountains, parts of central pa 14-22”

You’ve nailed a storm that is over 3 days away from starting?

[nw baltimore wx]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

You’ve nailed a storm that is over 3 days away from starting?

I think he was forecasting the forecast.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Quick look shows a stronger mean slp

Anyone willing to answer. Does a stronger low mean more flooding of the mid levels with warmer air above the surface or will this storm just be strictly dependent on the placement of the low and its eventual track?

[nj2va]

I realize this thread is basically focused on this week’s medium range threat but the long range continues to look good.  Of course never a guarantee to actually get frozen, but the blocking continues to look stable.  Uber long range wanted to mute it a bit but it just keeps reshuffling.  I like that the PV doesn’t look to be a tight concentrate circle...amazing what higher heights in the NAO/AO domains will do.

[Scraff]

Just now, nj2va said:

I realize this thread is basically focused on this week’s medium range threat but the long range continues to look good.  Of course never a guarantee to actually get frozen, but the blocking continues to look stable.  Uber long range wanted to mute it a bit but it just keeps reshuffling.

Good morning! Really like the looks of that. It would seem we should be tracking the rest of the month. Good times ahead...

[PivotPoint]

5 minutes ago, yoda said:

Yet the best guess precip type on all of the soundings at DCA at hr 90 is.... snow.  The entire column is fine till the last 50 meters

Eskimo beat me to it.. but I was going to say that if look caddy corner to the sounding the best lift is below the dgz and you’re right, it’s not horrendous but with air temps in the mid thirties and mixed precipitation... yoda, you know that doesn’t work in or near the city. Come on.

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Best lift is below the DGZ in that panel. Would probably be wet snow and some ice pellets. Still beats 35 and rain.

Thanks. And I agree. Also hoping for greater dynamic cooling with rates as ccb gears up and column cools top down to move that dgz up.

3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said:

You’ve nailed a storm that is over 3 days away from starting?

I was kinda kidding but tbh, I fee like I’ve had a good wrap on this since Friday afternoon. At least best guess

2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I think he was forecasting the forecast.

Yea, I was kinda kidding but cool to see how years of lurking and learning gives me some confidence when I see mets show ideas similar to mine. Makes thae fact that I’m gonna get. A mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain a little more tenable.

[PhineasC]

35 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

TT has the only GFS snow map worth showing.

You usually have the saddest obs during these events. I expect lots of 33 degree rain reports.