SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, 40westwx said: I have been saying this since Thursday.. all the ingredients are in place for temps to fall right for us.. there is a ton of boom/ upside. I am pretty sure DCA gets warning level snow.. and that basically means everyone to the north and west gets a MECS I sure hope you’re right, but my confidence isn’t super high at this time that what you’re describing will occur. Not a ton of wiggle room inside the beltway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Off the current topic... Can ens, GEFS and EPS have the same general look in the LR. Some potential help on the PAC side while maintaining a favorable ATL. Looks like we will have chances for the foreseeable future... In the med range, it looks like the blocking regime on the ATL side flexes again right around x-mas and then starts to relax. Maybe a period to watch as PSU noted yesterday. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, chris21 said: Pivotal weather snow depth maps are notoriously inaccurate. I’d prob look at soundings and make your own determination rather than rely the snow depth maps. Funny I’ve always found them to verify well for marginal setups in nova. They’re typically underdone however when temps are more cooperative. Too me snowfall maps are the notoriously bad ones. Yea, but sounding is way to go... This is when it’s suppose to be money time and it’s pouring snow in Winchester. Not here unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ellinwood said: Haha you're fast. Initial thoughts... It's like 70% Euro 30% GFS. Respecting the Fall Line locally. Your maps are always terrific. I never thought the My Little Pony color scheme was to my liking, but I was wrong. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 EPS looks better. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Funny I’ve always found them to verify well for marginal setups in nova. They’re typically underdone however when temps are more cooperative. Too me snowfall maps are the notoriously bad ones. Yea, but sounding is way to go... This is when it’s suppose to be money time and it’s pouring snow in Winchester. Not here unfortunately Yet the best guess precip type on all of the soundings at DCA at hr 90 is.... snow. The entire column is fine till the last 50 meters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 By the way to reference my post from two days ago. My snowfall predictions That I posted are almost verbatim what most good Mets are squeaking today... I feel like I’ve nailed this one. Hope I’m wrong: dc - arlington - McLean 2-6” great falls, va - Leesburg 6-12” Bluemont - Winchester 12-16” west of Winchester, mountains, parts of central pa 14-22” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, yoda said: Yet the best guess precip type on all of the soundings at DCA at hr 90 is.... snow. The entire column is fine till the last 50 meters Best lift is below the DGZ in that panel. Would probably be wet snow and some ice pellets. Still beats 35 and rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, PivotPoint said: By the way to reference my post from two days ago. My snowfall predictions That I posted are almost verbatim what most good Mets are squeaking today... I feel like I’ve nailed this one. Hope I’m wrong: dc - arlington - McLean 2-6” great falls, va - Leesburg 6-12” Bluemont - Winchester 12-16” west of Winchester, mountains, parts of central pa 14-22” You’ve nailed a storm that is over 3 days away from starting? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, LeesburgWx said: You’ve nailed a storm that is over 3 days away from starting? I think he was forecasting the forecast. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Quick look shows a stronger mean slp Anyone willing to answer. Does a stronger low mean more flooding of the mid levels with warmer air above the surface or will this storm just be strictly dependent on the placement of the low and its eventual track? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I realize this thread is basically focused on this week’s medium range threat but the long range continues to look good. Of course never a guarantee to actually get frozen, but the blocking continues to look stable. Uber long range wanted to mute it a bit but it just keeps reshuffling. I like that the PV doesn’t look to be a tight concentrate circle...amazing what higher heights in the NAO/AO domains will do. 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: I realize this thread is basically focused on this week’s medium range threat but the long range continues to look good. Of course never a guarantee to actually get frozen, but the blocking continues to look stable. Uber long range wanted to mute it a bit but it just keeps reshuffling. Good morning! Really like the looks of that. It would seem we should be tracking the rest of the month. Good times ahead... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Yet the best guess precip type on all of the soundings at DCA at hr 90 is.... snow. The entire column is fine till the last 50 meters Eskimo beat me to it.. but I was going to say that if look caddy corner to the sounding the best lift is below the dgz and you’re right, it’s not horrendous but with air temps in the mid thirties and mixed precipitation... yoda, you know that doesn’t work in or near the city. Come on. 4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Best lift is below the DGZ in that panel. Would probably be wet snow and some ice pellets. Still beats 35 and rain. Thanks. And I agree. Also hoping for greater dynamic cooling with rates as ccb gears up and column cools top down to move that dgz up. 3 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: You’ve nailed a storm that is over 3 days away from starting? I was kinda kidding but tbh, I fee like I’ve had a good wrap on this since Friday afternoon. At least best guess 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: I think he was forecasting the forecast. Yea, I was kinda kidding but cool to see how years of lurking and learning gives me some confidence when I see mets show ideas similar to mine. Makes thae fact that I’m gonna get. A mixed bag of snow, sleet and rain a little more tenable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 35 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: TT has the only GFS snow map worth showing. You usually have the saddest obs during these events. I expect lots of 33 degree rain reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north? Depends on the track of the low and placement of the high.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, PhineasC said: You usually have the saddest obs during these events. I expect lots of 33 degree rain reports. My obs are almost always better than DC proper. I think 35 and rain is probably more likely, though. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north? I think surface temps are OK to start, but if the low track is too far west there will be mixing issues in the middle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Maybe it's just wishcasting, but I have a hard time believing surface temps will be as warm as depicted. When have we ever really had surface temps in the mid 30's during a big snowstorm with a decent high to our north? It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal. This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Stronger vort signature and a bump south. Near perfect pass for the h5 for us to get mega CCB'd... @MillvilleWx was right on it at the 90 hr mark on the 06z EURO h5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 34 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually. Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: It is mid-December and the airmass is marginal. This doesn't usually work out well for the low-landers. True, but with an epically placed 1040 high we still have a shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Good morning. Someone start a storm thread! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Getting near the time where we drop the charade and have to acknowledge the hard reality that this will not be a region-wide crowd pleaser and there will be a screwzone. Snow is a brutal sport. If you live on a barge in the Potomac in SE DC, you are getting a lot of rain. I think we have a decent feel for what happens at DCA and Winchester. IAD we may not know until it happens. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO. Step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good morning. Someone start a storm thread! I vote Yoda. Couple days back he really kicked off a nice run of model suites that set the stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Look at the 925 line in Montgomery County Md 2C to 0 C about a 30 mile shift SE between 0z and 6 Z EURO. Yea, I kinda see it. And this might be too much parsing, but geeze I don’t think I would even call that a shift. I mean, the 0Z has colder temps to SW (albeit those look suspect, I agree). I dunno. Maybe it’s a tick colder. You’re right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Good morning. Someone start a storm thread! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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