Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6z EURO 7pm, also tick se do you have the low placement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro made a 25-30 mile tick to the SE with the progression of the SLP and can be seen looking closely at 925mb and 850mb with the winds and it showed with the depth and extension west of the warmer air within the boundary layer. This was actually a step in the right direction. Also, I think the CAD is underdone considering the surface setup with the HP positioning over Quebec City and a strength of 1038mb. Thicknesses reflected were in line with GFS despite being more robust in the surface reflection. I think this will trend more favorable in the short term. Question is the tuck of the SLP once it gets to ORF. If it stays even 50 miles off the coast, we are looking at an epic run for many. The western crew and northern crew would undoubtedly get obliterated with that run. Absolutely no question. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 6z EURO v 0z snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 6Z v 0z 925 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Damn... really wish the 06z EURO went out one more frame... looked like the CCB was going to be going nicely for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Not big change but agree that it edged back se this run. Did not continue NW. I mean every 40 mile shift is huge either way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Not big change but agree that it edged back se this run. Did not continue NW. I mean every 40 mile shift is huge either way. that looks like a big change...i went from +2 to -1 at 00z at 925. 3 degres! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Damn... really wish the 06z EURO went out one more frame... looked like the CCB was going to be going nicely for us It was gonna be epic. No doubt. 5H was pure weather porn 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, yoda said: Damn... really wish the 06z EURO went out one more frame... looked like the CCB was going to be going nicely for us We are about 48hrs from WSWatches...if all holds..totally stoked about that alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said: It was gonna be epic. No doubt. 5H was pure weather porn Just checked that and wow... indeed you are right. That was weenie porn indeed 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 hours ago, MillvilleWx said: The 850-700mb frontogen on the 06z GFS is otherworldly. Whoever stays all snow with this system is gonna shovel well over 12". Mark my words. Crazy aviation shift over here this evening, so bare with me. We need more analysis like this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 13 minutes ago, yoda said: Damn... really wish the 06z EURO went out one more frame... looked like the CCB was going to be going nicely for us I’d be so pumped if we get an event that is snow —>mix/rain —> CCB crushing. Gimme an inch or two on the front and then 3-6 in a short span on the back and I’ll be satisfied. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z v 0z 925 you see that coma shaped area of below 0 to the south and west of DC.. I think the model picking up on the dynamics of the system.. it looks like thats where wind shifts around to the north and banding sets up.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I’d be so pumped if we get an event that is snow —>mix/rain —> CCB crushing. Gimme an inch or two on the front and then 3-6 in a short span on the back and I’ll be satisfied. Jan 2011? That was one of my favorite storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It was gonna be epic. No doubt. 5H was pure weather porn Tasty 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Jan 2011? That was one of my favorite storms! Yeah that was a fun one. Got about 4-5 inches pretty quick, and then it was cold after and turned into cement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Tasty I dont see why people are worrying.. unless you live in So MD, this storm is going to be a proper mauling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: Yeah that was a fun one. Got about 4-5 inches pretty quick, and then it was cold after and turned into cement. I was in Petsmart shopping and I am pretty sure it snowed 2 inches while I was in there... I had to push a guy out of the lot cause he had rear while drive... that one and the Valentines day one a couple of years later were insane... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: I dont see why people are worrying.. unless you live in So MD, this storm is going to be a proper mauling. I mean I’m a little worried. We have a storm and some cold coming together which is nice, but we need that ccb to save us if the euro depiction is right, and you know that ccb setting up right over us is no guarantee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, 40westwx said: I dont see why people are worrying.. unless you live in So MD, this storm is going to be a proper mauling. If you're south of US50 in MD, this really doesn't seem to be your storm. Maybe advisory level snow if things work out on the back side, but this setup just isn't favorable for far southern MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, Ji said: do you have the low placement? WB Euro L placement 7pm Wed 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. No man. 0Z euro and 6z gfs are trending significant my worse for 95 crew. I use snow depth maps instead of snowfall, which most don’t want to look at but are way more realistic especially for cities. Plain truth is warm layers are farther west. Dca went from 9.9” to 2.4”. One op run but I can’t see how this isn’t worse. Ens are still good but like I’ve said for past couple of days. This will eventually shift more west and this is not surprising, and is not great (no sugar coat) for even those 10-15 miles WEST of the belt way. Great being relative, of course 6z 0Z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 TT has the only GFS snow map worth showing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: I mean I’m a little worried. We have a storm and some cold coming together which is nice, but we need that ccb to save us if the euro depiction is right, and you know that ccb setting up right over us is no guarantee. I have been saying this since Thursday.. all the ingredients are in place for temps to fall right for us.. there is a ton of boom/ upside. I am pretty sure DCA gets warning level snow.. and that basically means everyone to the north and west gets a MECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MN Transplant said: TT has the only GFS snow map worth showing. WRT to the fall line, that looks reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, PivotPoint said: No man. 0Z euro and 6z gfs are trending significant my worse for 95 crew. I use snow depth maps instead of snowfall, which most don’t want to look at but are way more realistic especially for cities. Plain truth is warm layers are farther west. Dca went from 9.9” to 2.4”. One op run but I can’t see how this isn’t worse. Ens are still good but like I’ve said for past couple of days. This will eventually shift more west and this is not surprising, and is not great (no sugar coat) for even those 10-15 miles WEST of the belt way. Great being relative, of course 6z 0Z Pivotal weather snow depth maps are notoriously inaccurate. I’d prob look at soundings and make your own determination rather than rely the snow depth maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 36 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Euro made a 25-30 mile tick to the SE with the progression of the SLP and can be seen looking closely at 925mb and 850mb with the winds and it showed with the depth and extension west of the warmer air within the boundary layer. This was actually a step in the right direction. Also, I think the CAD is underdone considering the surface setup with the HP positioning over Quebec City and a strength of 1038mb. Thicknesses reflected were in line with GFS despite being more robust in the surface reflection. I think this will trend more favorable in the short term. Question is the tuck of the SLP once it gets to ORF. If it stays even 50 miles off the coast, we are looking at an epic run for many. The western crew and northern crew would undoubtedly get obliterated with that run. Absolutely no question. Could you post a map of what you’re seeing. I honestly do not see a marked difference between the two runs. Certainly done see a 25-30 mile SE move. Thanks 32 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Not big change but agree that it edged back se this run. Did not continue NW. I mean every 40 mile shift is huge either way. What’s edging SE though? Temps at 925/850 are virtually identical. I don’t see this as an improvement 3 days out. It’s pretty consistent actually. 26 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: It was gonna be epic. No doubt. 5H was pure weather porn Again, you’re right rt15 on west is certainly the spot. I’ve felt that way as well. Unfortunately location for me is Arlington Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Eskimo Joe said: Haha you're fast. Initial thoughts... It's like 70% Euro 30% GFS. Respecting the Fall Line locally. 8 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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