BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, yoda said: 06z GFS is a mauling for i95 corridor and west You pick the best words..mauling is a particular favorite. And yes the snow hole fake map got me from Cobalt. It did..I’ll own it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 So that is a very heavy snow, not ice? Sorry no coffee yet and half asleep, confused... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I see the snow maps on TT correspond to your mauling...unlike the WB snow maps. Interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 The 850-700mb frontogen on the 06z GFS is otherworldly. Whoever stays all snow with this system is gonna shovel well over 12". Mark my words. Crazy aviation shift over here this evening, so bare with me. 11 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: So that is a very heavy snow, not ice? Sorry no coffee yet and half asleep, confused... @MillvilleWx would probably be better able to explain, but I believe so yes. Looking at the 6 hour snowfall amounts, 06z GFS is printing out 2" per hour rates (and higher in some spots) due to the extreme frontogenisis. I think this is causing the algorithm to show mix instead of the very heavy snow. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, MillvilleWx said: The 850-700mb frontogen on the 06z GFS is otherworldly. Whoever stays all snow with this system is gonna shovel well over 12". Mark my words. Crazy aviation shift over here this evening, so bare with me. Thanks for taking your time to post in our thread... esp with your detailed posts. Its greatly appreciated 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: So that is a very heavy snow, not ice? Sorry no coffee yet and half asleep, confused... Just now, yoda said: @MillvilleWx would probably be better able to explain, but I believe so yes. Looking at the 6 hour snowfall amounts, 06z GFS is printing out 2" per hour rates (and higher in some spots). I think this is causing the algorithm to show mix instead of the very heavy snow. The issue is the shallow layer between 850-750 that has a warm nose near the 0C isotherm, so pending the site and algorithm based, one will have ice/sleet and other will have snow. With intense lift within the low to mid boundary layer, I'd lean snow with that look. Lighter rates would switch to a mix. Banding will be prominent with this setup. People here need to not sleep on this setup when it comes to meso. This is how you get your 2-3"/hr snowfalls. 7H and 85H frontogen with this setup is silly. Someone in the Mid Atlantic is gonna get absolutely destroyed, and it won't be till gameday till we know who...... we all know who 2 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 06z RGEM at 84 looks good to me as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The issue is the shallow layer between 850-750 that has a warm nose near the 0C isotherm, so pending the site and algorithm based, one will have ice/sleet and other will have snow. With intense lift within the low to mid boundary layer, I'd lean snow with that look. Lighter rates would switch to a mix. Banding will be prominent with this setup. People here need to not sleep on this setup when it comes to meso. This is how you get your 2-3"/hr snowfalls. 7H and 85H frontogen with this setup is silly. Someone in the Mid Atlantic is gonna get absolutely destroyed, and it won't be till gameday till we know who...... we all know who I also want to thank you! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 6Z GEFS ticked SE with heavier snow... 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Oh btw, there's a chance at thundersnow in this storm. Just wanted to throw that tidbit out there looking at regional soundings. Slight tilt back with weak elevated CAPE sig within the deformation axis as the storm cranks off OCMD. So....yeah 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 6Z GEFS snowfall prob. 3, 6, 12, 18. 2 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Morning everyone. Headed back to sleep but my dog woke me up. Glad to see the 06z GFS held down the fort. Happy to say the 06x GEFS was a complete repudiation of the 00z EPS. On my phone and the maps always get shrunk on my phone so I won’t bother posting, but every single member has the LP offshore OBX and lows never really get all that near the Chesapeake Bay. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GFS....why the mix when all the thermal profiles are below freezing? Those surface maps are not accurate, for the umteenth time. The 6z GFS is a classic NW of fall line snowstorm, with some mixing on the SE edge. For DC to BWI points east, the surface gets toasty for a good part of Wed, and 925 mb temps are also problematic. 850s actually look ok this run. I-95 and east will need some serious dynamical cooling during the day Wed to overcome the warming lower levels, and then hope the backside delivers at night as the low pulls away from the coast. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Icon with its best run yet. Euro outlier? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: Those surface maps are not accurate, for the umteenth time. The 6z GFS is a classic NW of fall line snowstorm, with some mixing on the SE edge. For DC to BWI points east, the surface gets toasty for a good part of Wed, and 925 mb temps are also problematic. 850s actually look ok this run. I-95 and east will need some serious dynamical cooling during the day Wed to overcome the warming lower levels, and then hope the backside delivers at night as the low pulls away from the coast. disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Morning everyone. Headed back to sleep but my dog woke me up. Glad to see the 06z GFS held down the fort. Happy to say the 06x GEFS was a complete repudiation of the 00z EPS. On my phone and the maps always get shrunk on my phone so I won’t bother posting, but every single member has the LP offshore OBX and lows never really get all that near the Chesapeake Bay. GM...WB 6Z GEFS. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. Think the issue is surface temps Wed. afternoon 95 east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that.6z gfs sucked for dc. Way to close for comfort even into loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. Disagree all you want, but verbatim surface temps are mid to upper 30s along/east of I-95 for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. 6z gfs sucked for dc. Way to close for comfort even into loudoun huh? You get 20" on the 06z GFS... stop playin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Think the issue is surface temps Wed. afternoon 95 east...Lol in reality thats like 15 degrees below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 huh? You get 20" on the 06z GFS... stop playinI have zero cushion bro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Think the issue is surface temps Wed. afternoon 95 east... Lol in reality thats like 15 degrees below normal Why it is hard to get snow in December in the MA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. 6z gfs sucked for dc. Way to close for comfort even into loudoun I think you should inform your FB cult that this has huge bust potential and be prepared for 2-4" with lots of sleet/rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. 6z gfs sucked for dc. Way to close for comfort even into loudoun I think verbatim Wed. 10 pm to 4am a lot of snow will be sticking everywhere if GFS verified. Rates should overcome surface temps slightly above freezing in the corridor and se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This is what eastern areas need to get some decent snow from this event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I think verbatim Wed. 10 pm to 4am a lot of snow will be sticking everywhere if GFS verified. Rates should overcome surface temps slightly above freezing in the corridor and se. Some people here are DC and east. There’s a 40 on the map you posted sitting right beside of DC. You’re not overcoming 40 with rates. Of course, I still believe that the cad will been more stout than forecast and that any warmup will be very brief. I think the places from here on east are gonna get creamed once that low gains enough latitude to put us in the back side. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Disagree all you want, but verbatim surface temps are mid to upper 30s along/east of I-95 for several hours. Soundings suggest otherwise at DCA and along i95 corridor. DCA at 96 is snow. But we'll just have to agree to disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is what eastern areas need to get some decent snow from this event. Yes. That’s your hole card. Now if you get the cad to do it’s work, you’ll be good at the beginning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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