yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: Those surface maps are not accurate, for the umteenth time. The 6z GFS is a classic NW of fall line snowstorm, with some mixing on the SE edge. For DC to BWI points east, the surface gets toasty for a good part of Wed, and 925 mb temps are also problematic. 850s actually look ok this run. I-95 and east will need some serious dynamical cooling during the day Wed to overcome the warming lower levels, and then hope the backside delivers at night as the low pulls away from the coast. disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Morning everyone. Headed back to sleep but my dog woke me up. Glad to see the 06z GFS held down the fort. Happy to say the 06x GEFS was a complete repudiation of the 00z EPS. On my phone and the maps always get shrunk on my phone so I won’t bother posting, but every single member has the LP offshore OBX and lows never really get all that near the Chesapeake Bay. GM...WB 6Z GEFS. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. Think the issue is surface temps Wed. afternoon 95 east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that.6z gfs sucked for dc. Way to close for comfort even into loudoun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. Disagree all you want, but verbatim surface temps are mid to upper 30s along/east of I-95 for several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 5 minutes ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. 6z gfs sucked for dc. Way to close for comfort even into loudoun huh? You get 20" on the 06z GFS... stop playin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Think the issue is surface temps Wed. afternoon 95 east...Lol in reality thats like 15 degrees below normal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 huh? You get 20" on the 06z GFS... stop playinI have zero cushion bro... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Think the issue is surface temps Wed. afternoon 95 east... Lol in reality thats like 15 degrees below normal Why it is hard to get snow in December in the MA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 6 minutes ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. 6z gfs sucked for dc. Way to close for comfort even into loudoun I think you should inform your FB cult that this has huge bust potential and be prepared for 2-4" with lots of sleet/rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: 10 minutes ago, yoda said: disagree on the i95 corridor... 06z GFS was just right lol. It kept the area along and west in the snow the entire (well most) of the time. 06z GEFS support that. 6z gfs sucked for dc. Way to close for comfort even into loudoun I think verbatim Wed. 10 pm to 4am a lot of snow will be sticking everywhere if GFS verified. Rates should overcome surface temps slightly above freezing in the corridor and se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This is what eastern areas need to get some decent snow from this event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I think verbatim Wed. 10 pm to 4am a lot of snow will be sticking everywhere if GFS verified. Rates should overcome surface temps slightly above freezing in the corridor and se. Some people here are DC and east. There’s a 40 on the map you posted sitting right beside of DC. You’re not overcoming 40 with rates. Of course, I still believe that the cad will been more stout than forecast and that any warmup will be very brief. I think the places from here on east are gonna get creamed once that low gains enough latitude to put us in the back side. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Disagree all you want, but verbatim surface temps are mid to upper 30s along/east of I-95 for several hours. Soundings suggest otherwise at DCA and along i95 corridor. DCA at 96 is snow. But we'll just have to agree to disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: This is what eastern areas need to get some decent snow from this event. Yes. That’s your hole card. Now if you get the cad to do it’s work, you’ll be good at the beginning as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Some people here are DC and east. There’s a 40 on the map you posted sitting right beside of DC. You’re not overcoming 40 with rates. Of course, I still believe that the cad will been more stout than forecast and that any warmup will be very brief. I think the places from here on east are gonna get creamed once that low gains enough latitude to put us in the back side. The 40 I think is at 3pm. By 10 pm surface temps are falling toward freezing and rates are still good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Some people here are DC and east. There’s a 40 on the map you posted sitting right beside of DC. You’re not overcoming 40 with rates. Of course, I still believe that the cad will been more stout than forecast and that any warmup will be very brief. I think the places from here on east are gonna get creamed once that low gains enough latitude to put us in the back side. Gotta have some backside love over here. Did I just send out an RR signal? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Let’s hope EURO moves toward GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Yes. That’s your hole card. Now if you get the cad to do it’s work, you’ll be good at the beginning as well. The CAD will look good at the beginning, but one thing you learn living here is how quickly it can be overcome with marine warmth when there is an easterly fetch. If we had a true blocking pattern with an ideal slow moving/quasi stationary 50-50 low, the cold would stay more locked in here, and it would probably just sleet for a time rather than rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Talk about whiplash. I go to sleep after the pummeling 00z GFS to then wake up and read about the Euro and it’s ENS just to be pulled right back in now after the 06z GFS and it’s ENS. I still can’t push my chips in until all models agree. But Euro does look like an outlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 56 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: This is how you get your 2-3"/hr snowfalls. 7H and 85H frontogen with this setup is silly. oh yeah! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Good synopsis from Mount Holly this morning- 00Z Guidance retains rather impressive run-to-run consistency with respect to timing, track, and associated thermal profiles with the low, and this is perhaps helped by the progressive hemispheric pattern which tends to favor more predictability than amplified blocking patterns. Consequently despite considerable uncertainty regarding the details of this system (more on that below) do have higher than average confidence that at least portions of our area will see potentially significant impacts from this system. The one thing to point out is that the mid-lvl wave associated with this system is still over the Pacific which does favor at least some caution in becoming too confident although modern Data Assimilation is fairly robust even in regions of observational sparsity. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you look at it from my perspective) it is too early to get specific about ptypes and snow amounts, as the low`s track near to the coast will almost certainly result in some ptype transition zone. Furthermore this transition zone will likely ebb and flow as mesoscale lift (e.g. FGEN) results in dynamical cooling. That being said the antecedent airmass does look primed for wintry precipitation, with pre-storm dewpoints likely in the single digits or low- teens which should support some fairly notable wet-bulbing with the first batch of precip. The question then becomes can the intensity of the precipitation and associated dynamical cooling become enough to offset the increasing warm advection associated with the low? The next question is how robust will precipitation be on the back side of the low Wednesday night as it pulls away from the area, and cold advection begins? We should have more answers to these questions in the next couple days we enter the Mesoscale model window. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Good synopsis from Mount Holly this morning- 00Z Guidance retains rather impressive run-to-run consistency with respect to timing, track, and associated thermal profiles with the low, and this is perhaps helped by the progressive hemispheric pattern which tends to favor more predictability than amplified blocking patterns. Consequently despite considerable uncertainty regarding the details of this system (more on that below) do have higher than average confidence that at least portions of our area will see potentially significant impacts from this system. The one thing to point out is that the mid-lvl wave associated with this system is still over the Pacific which does favor at least some caution in becoming too confident although modern Data Assimilation is fairly robust even in regions of observational sparsity. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you look at it from my perspective) it is too early to get specific about ptypes and snow amounts, as the low`s track near to the coast will almost certainly result in some ptype transition zone. Furthermore this transition zone will likely ebb and flow as mesoscale lift (e.g. FGEN) results in dynamical cooling. That being said the antecedent airmass does look primed for wintry precipitation, with pre-storm dewpoints likely in the single digits or low- teens which should support some fairly notable wet-bulbing with the first batch of precip. The question then becomes can the intensity of the precipitation and associated dynamical cooling become enough to offset the increasing warm advection associated with the low? The next question is how robust will precipitation be on the back side of the low Wednesday night as it pulls away from the area, and cold advection begins? We should have more answers to these questions in the next couple days we enter the Mesoscale model window. I need to get myself back east because this is literally everything I've been mentioning. There will come a time 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro is rolling...may the force be with us.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 6z EURO 1pm wed tick se 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 6z EURO 4pm, again little se of 0z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 6z EURO 7pm, also tick se 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Really need to see these side by side from current run to previous to see what the movement is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 06z OP Euro appears SE of its 00z counterpart. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 6z EURO 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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