NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This may not fully be the problem but it's gotta be part of it. What a mess. 18z ens for comparison Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's pretty meh even up here Still looks like a lot of snow here with some mixing in the middle of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Does euro still have that slow sw bias lol? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It does what the 18z GFS op did...tucks the storm north up the bay before shifting east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's pretty meh even up here real fringe job for ya 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: It does what the 18z GFS op did...tucks the storm north up the bay before shifting east. guess we'll see in about an hour whether or not the EPS backs up the OP or is a bit further east and leaves the OP on an island by itself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 High seemed to move ever so slightly east this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 What a disastrous night 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: real fringe job for ya Does that map count sleet as snow? If it does then it may be misleading, though I have a feeling that I-70 and north are still looking solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 We can't have nice things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Fozz said: Does that map count sleet as snow? If it does then it may be misleading. Kuchera, for reference. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro gives me like 1:1 ratios... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: you still get over a foot up in northern Maryland. I don't get how the totals still look like that given the low practically in the Chesapeake! Does it snow on the back end, or? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Well at least we know there will be a storm. The CMC sniffed it out first and pretty held serve 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro gives me like 1:1 ratios...Trash can lid might get some accumulation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Cobalt said: Kuchera, for reference. Well never mind. Incredible hit for the northern tier even if Kuchera ratios are a bit overdone. @psuhoffman come on this is an excellent run up your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't get how the totals still look like that given the low practically in the Chesapeake! Does it snow on the back end, or? Yep, it has a changeover to very heavy snow in the favored spots afterwards. Multiple inches per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Fozz said: Well never mind. Incredible hit for the northern tier even if Kuchera ratios are a bit overdone. @psuhoffman come on this is an excellent run up your way. “Meh” “fringed” “not great even up here” “by tomorrow, it’ll be congrats Albany” 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Worst hobby ever 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I don't get how the totals still look like that given the low practically in the Chesapeake! Does it snow on the back end, or? Snow maps are almost completely useless. The GFS “hit” from earlier is like 3” in DC. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Alright, so...what would be the culprit for this fail scenario? Just bad timing with the transfer? Somebody said something about the PNA ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Alright, so...what would be the culprit for this fail scenario? Just bad timing with the transfer? Somebody said something about the PNA ridge?We just suck at snow. Regardless of any ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Worst hobby ever It's not a hobby it's a mental sickness. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Alright, so...what would be the culprit for this fail scenario? Just bad timing with the transfer? Somebody said something about the PNA ridge? We just suck at snow. Regardless of any ridge I knew you were gonna come in and say something like that...maybe you should step away for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I knew you were gonna come in and say something like that...maybe you should step away for a little while.Yea its called going to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Once the low surface low reflection showed to be at the mouth of the bay, it was destined to have mixing issues further inland as the 925/850mb winds would throw the warmer air back further towards I-81. The Euro is actually similar to the GFS at 5H with just different SLP placements once we get to the slot near ORF. Models being jumpy right there mean they are struggling to identify where the primary surface low will be located as there is a distinct double barrel look now on all guidance, something I pointed out last night. Until that gets figured out, it'll be doing some moving and shaking with regards to the warm boundary layer intrusion. The CAD on the model is actually very solid leading in, and is actually the strongest surface ridge extension of all guidance. That's also another reason why the warm air made it so far west. The 1038 HP over Canada in tandem with a more tucked SLP at the mouth of the Chesapeake created a strong u-vector component to the wind field, forcing the easterlies to protrude as far west as I-81. It does correct and things improve with 3 hrs time, so it's not unreasonable to say that can easily shift back. In either case, that area of Rt15 on west is still the ground zero for this storm, IMO. I-95 to Rt15 will likely mix for a time with the further east areas mixing the longest. The deformation axis is still epic, so the back end love will be higher ratio love and can pile up quick. I still think the jack lies from WV Panhandle to the Catoctins up to HBG in PA. Northern Carroll/Balt Co into SoPA will also have the outside chance at the jack pending the overall evolution of the deformation band that is bound to establish itself. Like I said before, this is not totally figured out in the synoptic scale, so expect some movement here and there. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: you still get over a foot up in northern Maryland. Maybe, those things count sleet as snow and looking at the temperatures at different levels...I think there is a LOT of sleet up here. 12 minutes ago, HighStakes said: Still looks like a lot of snow here with some mixing in the middle of the storm. It isn't AS bad as I originally thought...that deform really clips us good at the end...but the front end is really not good at all...and relying all on the wrap around is living dangerously if you want a big storm. First of all I was analyzing the thermal structure to get an idea what I think falls as SN/PL/RN, not using those ptype maps that are awful. By 21Z we are losing a snow look imo. We are still at about -2 at 850 but there is likely a warm layer somewhere with that screaming southeast wind. I see about .23 qpf before that...so we likely only get 2-3" before a flip to sleet on this run. We waste a LOT of qpf as sleet in the next 6 hours or so. I count about .7 qpf that falls as sleet. At least I think it is sleet...its close whether the cold layer is thick enough or if it goes over to just rain for a time. Maybe freezing rain with a temp at 30 but whatever. That is probably about 2" of sleet if it is sleet. But we lose a lot of the meat of the storm there. The deform clips us after that and we get about .8 QPF as snow...assuming our typical high ratios once temps crash at all levels...we probably get 10" on the back. But again...I am always nervous relying on that back side for the bulk of our snow. Those deform bands can be really tricky for models to nail down this far out. If for whatever reason that shifts north some...suddenly we are looking at a messy muck storm instead of a big snow. Not gonna over react to one op run of the typically most amped model. But it was the worst run for us so far. 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: real fringe job for ya Those maps are LOL. It counted a period where my 850's are +2C as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Those maps are LOL. It counted a period where my 850's are +2C as snow. Haha, it was mostly a tease. Deform rakes you at the end for sure though. Obviously wasn’t an ideal run for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Once the low surface low reflection showed to be at the mouth of the bay, it was destined to have mixing issues further inland as the 925/850mb winds would throw the warmer air back further towards I-81. The Euro is actually similar to the GFS at 5H with just different SLP placements once we get to the slot near ORF. Models being jumpy right there mean they are struggling to identify where the primary surface low will be located as there is a distinct double barrel look now on all guidance, something I pointed out last night. Until that gets figured out, it'll be doing some moving and shaking with regards to the warm boundary layer intrusion. The CAD on the model is actually very solid leading in, and is actually the strongest surface ridge extension of all guidance. That's also another reason why the warm air made it so far west. The 1038 HP over Canada in tandem with a more tucked SLP at the mouth of the Chesapeake created a strong u-vector component to the wind field, forcing the easterlies to protrude as far west as I-81. It does correct and things improve with 3 hrs time, so it's not unreasonable to say that can easily shift back. In either case, that area of Rt15 on west is still the ground zero for this storm, IMO. I-95 to Rt15 will likely mix for a time with the further east areas mixing the longest. The deformation axis is still epic, so the back end love will be higher ratio love and can pile up quick. I still think the jack lies from WV Panhandle to the Catoctins up to HBG in PA. Northern Carroll/Balt Co into SoPA will also have the outside chance at the jack pending the overall evolution of the deformation band that is bound to establish itself. Like I said before, this is not totally figured out in the synoptic scale, so expect some movement here and there. Great analysis as always. Just hoping for at least 5” in Deep Creek from this and I’d be happy. Hoping we all cash in. Good luck with studying! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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