December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Euro gives me like 1:1 ratios...

Trash can lid might get some accumulation

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, Cobalt said:

Kuchera, for reference. 

Well never mind. Incredible hit for the northern tier even if Kuchera ratios are a bit overdone. @psuhoffman come on this is an excellent run up your way.

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't get how the totals still look like that given the low practically in the Chesapeake! Does it snow on the back end, or?

Yep, it has a changeover to very heavy snow in the favored spots afterwards. Multiple inches per hour.

[nj2va]

Just now, Fozz said:

Well never mind. Incredible hit for the northern tier even if Kuchera ratios are a bit overdone. @psuhoffman come on this is an excellent run up your way.

“Meh” “fringed” “not great even up here” “by tomorrow, it’ll be congrats Albany”

[Ji]

Worst hobby ever

[MN Transplant]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I don't get how the totals still look like that given the low practically in the Chesapeake! Does it snow on the back end, or?

Snow maps are almost completely useless.

The GFS “hit” from earlier is like 3” in DC.

[Maestrobjwa]

Alright, so...what would be the culprit for this fail scenario? Just bad timing with the transfer? Somebody said something about the PNA ridge?

[Ji]

Alright, so...what would be the culprit for this fail scenario? Just bad timing with the transfer? Somebody said something about the PNA ridge?

We just suck at snow. Regardless of any ridge

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Worst hobby ever

It's not a hobby it's a mental sickness. 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Alright, so...what would be the culprit for this fail scenario? Just bad timing with the transfer? Somebody said something about the PNA ridge?

We just suck at snow. Regardless of any ridge

I knew you were gonna come in and say something like that...maybe you should step away for a little while.

[Ji]

I knew you were gonna come in and say something like that...maybe you should step away for a little while.

Yea its called going to bed

[MillvilleWx]

Once the low surface low reflection showed to be at the mouth of the bay, it was destined to have mixing issues further inland as the 925/850mb winds would throw the warmer air back further towards I-81. The Euro is actually similar to the GFS at 5H with just different SLP placements once we get to the slot near ORF. Models being jumpy right there mean they are struggling to identify where the primary surface low will be located as there is a distinct double barrel look now on all guidance, something I pointed out last night. Until that gets figured out, it'll be doing some moving and shaking with regards to the warm boundary layer intrusion.

The CAD on the model is actually very solid leading in, and is actually the strongest surface ridge extension of all guidance. That's also another reason why the warm air made it so far west. The 1038 HP over Canada in tandem with a more tucked SLP at the mouth of the Chesapeake created a strong u-vector component to the wind field, forcing the easterlies to protrude as far west as I-81. It does correct and things improve with 3 hrs time, so it's not unreasonable to say that can easily shift back. In either case, that area of Rt15 on west is still the ground zero for this storm, IMO. I-95 to Rt15 will likely mix for a time with the further east areas mixing the longest. The deformation axis is still epic, so the back end love will be higher ratio love and can pile up quick. I still think the jack lies from WV Panhandle to the Catoctins up to HBG in PA. Northern Carroll/Balt Co into SoPA will also have the outside chance at the jack pending the overall evolution of the deformation band that is bound to establish itself. Like I said before, this is not totally figured out in the synoptic scale, so expect some movement here and there.

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

you still get over a foot up in northern Maryland.

 

 

Maybe, those things count sleet as snow and looking at the temperatures at different levels...I think there is a LOT of sleet up here.  

12 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

Still looks like a lot of snow here with some mixing in the middle of the storm.

It isn't AS bad as I originally thought...that deform really clips us good at the end...but the front end is really not good at all...and relying all on the wrap around is living dangerously if you want a big storm.  First of all I was analyzing the thermal structure to get an idea what I think falls as SN/PL/RN, not using those ptype maps that are awful.  By 21Z we are losing a snow look imo.  We are still at about -2 at 850 but there is likely a warm layer somewhere with that screaming southeast wind.  I see about .23 qpf before that...so we likely only get 2-3" before a flip to sleet on this run.  We waste a LOT of qpf as sleet in the next 6 hours or so.  I count about .7 qpf that falls as sleet.  At least I think it is sleet...its close whether the cold layer is thick enough or if it goes over to just rain for a time.  Maybe freezing rain with a temp at 30 but whatever.   That is probably about 2" of sleet if it is sleet.  But we lose a lot of the meat of the storm there.  The deform clips us after that and we get about .8 QPF as snow...assuming our typical high ratios once temps crash at all levels...we probably get 10" on the back.  But again...I am always nervous relying on that back side for the bulk of our snow.  Those deform bands can be really tricky for models to nail down this far out.  If for whatever reason that shifts north some...suddenly we are looking at a messy muck storm instead of a big snow.   Not gonna over react to one op run of the typically most amped model.  But it was the worst run for us so far.  

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

real fringe job for ya

Those maps are LOL.  It counted a period where my 850's are +2C as snow.  

[NorthArlington101]

Those maps are LOL.  It counted a period where my 850's are +2C as snow.  

Haha, it was mostly a tease. Deform rakes you at the end for sure though. Obviously wasn’t an ideal run for most of us.

[nj2va]

3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Once the low surface low reflection showed to be at the mouth of the bay, it was destined to have mixing issues further inland as the 925/850mb winds would throw the warmer air back further towards I-81. The Euro is actually similar to the GFS at 5H with just different SLP placements once we get to the slot near ORF. Models being jumpy right there mean they are struggling to identify where the primary surface low will be located as there is a distinct double barrel look now on all guidance, something I pointed out last night. Until that gets figured out, it'll be doing some moving and shaking with regards to the warm boundary layer intrusion.

The CAD on the model is actually very solid leading in, and is actually the strongest surface ridge extension of all guidance. That's also another reason why the warm air made it so far west. The 1038 HP over Canada in tandem with a more tucked SLP at the mouth of the Chesapeake created a strong u-vector component to the wind field, forcing the easterlies to protrude as far west as I-81. It does correct and things improve with 3 hrs time, so it's not unreasonable to say that can easily shift back. In either case, that area of Rt15 on west is still the ground zero for this storm, IMO. I-95 to Rt15 will likely mix for a time with the further east areas mixing the longest. The deformation axis is still epic, so the back end love will be higher ratio love and can pile up quick. I still think the jack lies from WV Panhandle to the Catoctins up to HBG in PA. Northern Carroll/Balt Co into SoPA will also have the outside chance at the jack pending the overall evolution of the deformation band that is bound to establish itself. Like I said before, this is not totally figured out in the synoptic scale, so expect some movement here and there.

Great analysis as always.  Just hoping for at least 5” in Deep Creek from this and I’d be happy.  Hoping we all cash in.  

Good luck with studying! 

[MillvilleWx]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

Great analysis as always.  Just hoping for at least 5” in Deep Creek from this and I’d be happy.  Hoping we all cash in.  

Good luck with studying! 

No studying over here! My school days are long gone. Working the mid shift tonight and have Aviation grids tonight. Will be easy shift for me as the day shift gets the screaming northerlies later today 

[MN Transplant]

6 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Once the low surface low reflection showed to be at the mouth of the bay, it was destined to have mixing issues further inland as the 925/850mb winds would throw the warmer air back further towards I-81. The Euro is actually similar to the GFS at 5H with just different SLP placements once we get to the slot near ORF. Models being jumpy right there mean they are struggling to identify where the primary surface low will be located as there is a distinct double barrel look now on all guidance, something I pointed out last night. Until that gets figured out, it'll be doing some moving and shaking with regards to the warm boundary layer intrusion.

The CAD on the model is actually very solid leading in, and is actually the strongest surface ridge extension of all guidance. That's also another reason why the warm air made it so far west. The 1038 HP over Canada in tandem with a more tucked SLP at the mouth of the Chesapeake created a strong u-vector component to the wind field, forcing the easterlies to protrude as far west as I-81. It does correct and things improve with 3 hrs time, so it's not unreasonable to say that can easily shift back. In either case, that area of Rt15 on west is still the ground zero for this storm, IMO. I-95 to Rt15 will likely mix for a time with the further east areas mixing the longest. The deformation axis is still epic, so the back end love will be higher ratio love and can pile up quick. I still think the jack lies from WV Panhandle to the Catoctins up to HBG in PA. Northern Carroll/Balt Co into SoPA will also have the outside chance at the jack pending the overall evolution of the deformation band that is bound to establish itself. Like I said before, this is not totally figured out in the synoptic scale, so expect some movement here and there.

We are always going to be in big trouble along 95 with an 850 track that goes from central VA to the Delaware Bay per the Euro.  Especially early in the season w/o cold air everywhere.  The GFS is much more friendly in that regard with a Williamsburg to east of DE track.  

[MillvilleWx]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

We are always going to be in big trouble along 95 with an 850 track that goes from central VA to the Delaware Bay per the Euro.  Especially early in the season w/o cold air everywhere.  The GFS is much more friendly in that regard with a Williamsburg to east of DE track.  

For sure. That's one of the reasons I see mixing even back as far as Frederick as a possibility with this one. "How long?", is the question. Still a fair amount of QPF to work with and the meso aspects are far from settled. Hopefully the low can find a medium and hug the coast and not reside over the coastal plain. Someone will get rocked from this in the sub-forum and my bet is the 81 corridor right now.  

[griteater]

This is the biggest difference I see aloft between the GFS and Euro.  First off, the timestamps are different here in the comparison (hr78 for GFS and hr81 for Euro), but I'm wanting to compare the features for when the trough axis is in the same location, in this case, centered through Missouri.  The trough on the Euro is sharper with more amplitude, and the GFS has more positive tilt as it extends down thru Texas.  Also, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger.  Note the difference between the 2 models with the height lines over NY and PA.  The height lines are farther north on the Euro which equates to a more tucked, warmer solution.  Every little bit of difference counts.

[AmericanWxFreak]

Euro ens 

[NorthArlington101]

lotta individual ens jumped NW from 18z to 00z. hopefully 06z EPS brings better tidings. Night y’all.

[Cobalt]

bleh

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, griteater said:

This is the biggest difference I see aloft between the GFS and Euro.  First off, the timestamps are different here in the comparison (hr78 for GFS and hr81 for Euro), but I'm wanting to compare the features for when the trough axis is in the same location, in this case, centered through Missouri.  The trough on the Euro is sharper with more amplitude, and the GFS has more positive tilt as it extends down thru Texas.  Also, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger.  Note the difference between the 2 models with the height lines over NY and PA.  The height lines are farther north on the Euro which equates to a more tucked, warmer solution.  Every little bit of difference counts.

That there (what you said about the 50/50)...you're saying that being weaker is what's causing the Euro result? And I'm wondering...is Monday’s wave weaker on this run as well? (Thinking about that whole inverse reaction @psuhoffman mentioned)

[griteater]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That there (what you said about the 50/50)...you're saying that being weaker is what's causing the Euro result? And I'm wondering...is Monday’s wave weaker on this run as well? (Thinking about that whole inverse reaction @psuhoffman mentioned)

Correct, when the trough for the storm is over Missouri on both models, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger and farther southwest compared to the Euro.  That, and the other reasons given are at least part of the picture for why there is a more amplified, warmer, solution on the Euro (sfc low farther NW).

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, griteater said:

Correct, when the trough for the storm is over Missouri on both models, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger and farther southwest compared to the Euro.  That, and the other reasons given are at least part of the picture for why there is a more amplified, warmer, solution on the Euro (sfc low farther NW).

Hm...so I'm wondering if we need to watch the first system more closely then...to see if it trends stronger or weaker...now it's practically on the doorstep, so you'd think we'd have more clarity on that by the end of today?

[MillvilleWx]

12 minutes ago, griteater said:

Correct, when the trough for the storm is over Missouri on both models, the 50/50 low on the GFS is stronger and farther southwest compared to the Euro.  That, and the other reasons given are at least part of the picture for why there is a more amplified, warmer, solution on the Euro (sfc low farther NW).

Good catch. I remember seeing on the Euro early on there was a bit of a difference in the strength of the surface reflection on Monday compared to other guidance, so that makes sense that it would provide a slight negative feedback. We're getting down to the nitty gritty on the synoptic scale, so that piece on Monday will be important to resolve before we have a distinct idea on what to expect with the SLP positioning on Wednesday. @MN Transplant said it best earlier with regards to the SLP track. Thanks for the trend gif Grit

[griteater]

1 minute ago, MillvilleWx said:

Good catch. I remember seeing on the Euro early on there was a bit of a difference in the strength of the surface reflection on Monday compared to other guidance, so that makes sense that it would provide a slight negative feedback. We're getting down to the nitty gritty on the synoptic scale, so that piece on Monday will be important to resolve before we have a distinct idea on what to expect with the SLP positioning on Wednesday. @MN Transplant said it best earlier with regards to the SLP track. Thanks for the trend gif Grit

In the old days, we would say the Euro is correct and the other models will move to it...but in the past 8 years or so, it hasn't been that way from what I've seen.  Maybe the Euro is correct here, but time will tell.

[Maestrobjwa]

3 minutes ago, griteater said:

In the old days, we would say the Euro is correct and the other models will move to it...but in the past 8 years or so, it hasn't been that way from what I've seen.  Maybe the Euro is correct here, but time will tell.

Sounds like we'll be sweatin' it the next 24-48 hours to see who caves to who, lol

[BristowWx]

I literally fell asleep at 1045..just woke up and picked up where I left off.  The GFS pbp was like meeting the hottest girl ever...then 2 hours later the Euro pbp was like finding out she was a dude. 

[yoda]

23 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Good catch. I remember seeing on the Euro early on there was a bit of a difference in the strength of the surface reflection on Monday compared to other guidance, so that makes sense that it would provide a slight negative feedback. We're getting down to the nitty gritty on the synoptic scale, so that piece on Monday will be important to resolve before we have a distinct idea on what to expect with the SLP positioning on Wednesday. @MN Transplant said it best earlier with regards to the SLP track. Thanks for the trend gif Grit

We may have to wait till Monday IMO when the h5 pieces/SLP for the Monday "event" finally moves into the NE/Canadian Maritimes before we get a better idea of where the players for our snow will be on Wednesday.  As griteater pointed out... the 50/50 low positioning seems to be crucial to us down here. 

ETA:  seems like you ninja'd me above... my bad