December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

Well, since we’re cancelling winter and/or December, renewed convection in phase 4-6 would be suboptimal. 
 

 

[psuhoffman]

One problem when the preceding and dominant pattern is complete garbage puke like it has been recently is that transient decent patterns do us little good since there is no cold air within 1000 miles of us when the pattern changes. By the time we recover a workable temperature profile in the conus the pattern is breaking down. 

[Ji]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

One problem when the preceding and dominant pattern is complete garbage puke like it has been recently is that transient decent patterns do us little good since there is no cold air within 1000 miles of us when the pattern changes. By the time we recover a workable temperature profile in the conus the pattern is breaking down. 

so by the time the -25 from Mongolia comes...it will be dry and about to break down?

[Maestrobjwa]

Now I thought that at least front end of ninas were usually colder...not always the case?

[Ji]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I thought that at least front end of ninas were usually colder...not always the case?

no you are right

 

[frd]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

One problem when the preceding and dominant pattern is complete garbage puke like it has been recently is that transient decent patterns do us little good since there is no cold air within 1000 miles of us when the pattern changes. By the time we recover a workable temperature profile in the conus the pattern is breaking down. 

This is so true i....t was mentioned early in the season the importance of the cryosphere  The latest 10-day mean temperature from the Canadian ensemble shows most of Canada is above normal. Granted  it's cold for Canada but not cold nearly cold  enough for us as you mentioned.

 Hopefully at some point during the winter Canada can be loaded  with extreme cold which coincides with a - EPO discharge. 

Also hoping any future - NAO occurs as well after  a Eastern Canada cold period. 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

no you are right

 

So I'm confused then as to why this looks more like a super nino December or something, lol Is there an anomaly?

[WxUSAF]

Gfs and last nights para-gfs are really close to threading the needle for next weekends storm. Weak initial wave pulls in just enough cold air and then the second stronger wave gets really close to giving us precip with a cold column. I thought that was dead, but maybe not yet. Ggem is wrapped and inland up again. 

Also good support for a cold blast early next week and maybe some northern stream energy passing through. 

[mattie g]

4 hours ago, frd said:

 

As mentioned above,  the change to warmer at Christmas and beyond is rather clear.

Just like clockwork again. It is remarkable the change to warmer in the East near the winter solstice.  

So...on November 30, you're saying that it's clear that we're going to change to warmer around Christmastime? I just want to be sure I'm reading you right...that we're clear on what the temperature regime will be about four weeks from now.

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

so by the time the -25 from Mongolia comes...it will be dry and about to break down?

That was a statement that if this indeed is only transient (which is still unclear) it won’t do is much good. We may get a favorable period before it breaks down. But we are wasting a week of a pretty good H5 look first. 

[frd]

39 minutes ago, mattie g said:

So...on November 30, you're saying that it's clear that we're going to change to warmer around Christmastime? I just want to be sure I'm reading you right...that we're clear on what the temperature regime will be about four weeks from now.

Yes, based on MJO movement and other signals. You can be skeptical, however, it would seem the evolution of the pattern to warmer near the 20th is logical. This is a long-range discussion and the period near the 20 th is weirdly associated with a turn to milder in the East. 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

no you are right

 

This is the Mongolian cold I referenced last night. It generally takes 7-10 days to get here.

one of its benefits is that it does not plunge southwest’s into the middle of US and then roll over to the east in an even greater modifies fashion . It tends to move more easterly through the eastern lakes and western NY and PA and then down upon us .

[Ji]

miller B on the euro....congrats New England

[Deck Pic]

Models are so bad in La Nina

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

miller B on the euro....congrats New England

Now that would be more typical nina behavior, no?

[WxUSAF]

Amazing what a -EPO can do.  GEFS has all of Canada above normal at 850mb on Dec 10 and then all below normal by the 15th.  

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now that would be more typical nina behavior, no?

typical Nina Behavior is boring/dry.mild. But everyone once in a while..someone else that shouldnt get snow gets some(its almost never us). Great example is 2001-02. One of the worst of all time but Southern Virginia/NC got a 12-14 inch storm in early January

[WEATHER53]

12 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

Models are so bad in La Nina

The Enso has simply changed and is no longer reliable as to predicting occurrent weather.  The NAO:AO has not changed in its outcome effects and is as or more important now for us. 

Other things such as the MJO and SSW are great for elaborated discussions but simply unproven as to their broader effects upon our area. 

[Deck Pic]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

typical Nina Behavior is boring/dry.mild. But everyone once in a while..someone else that shouldnt get snow gets some(its almost never us). Great example is 2001-02. One of the worst of all time but Southern Virginia/NC got a 12-14 inch storm in early January

01-02 wasn't a Nina...but we get screwed in every scenario.  Regardless of ENSO state, I'll get a cartopper and someone will post photos on Social media of 3" in Corpus Cristi or Cape Hatteras or Baton Rouge.

[H2O]

9 minutes ago, Deck Pic said:

01-02 wasn't a Nina...but we get screwed in every scenario.  Regardless of ENSO state, I'll get a cartopper and someone will post photos on Social media of 3" in Corpus Cristi or Cape Hatteras or Baton Rouge.

the models always get those right

[WxUSAF]

12z EPS 500mb pattern looks quite nice heading toward mid month.  Not seeing any signs of MJO phase 3-6 returning a Nina-like pattern yet.  -AO (--AO?), -NAO, -EPO, +PNA.  Trough axis over the eastern Plains/MS valley.  

With any "good" pattern advertised at range, it doesn't mean we will score.  But it means we at least have the CHANCE to score.  When we have some SE death ridge and/or a blue ball over AK, it's a shut the blinds pattern and there's no chance.  The pattern going forward, starting tomorrow really, and at least going through the ~14th (assuming things stay more or less the same) offers CHANCES.  Some years we maximize our opportunities and others we really miss on.  Jan '16 was our one good window that year and we maxed it out.  The last few years, we've mostly not hit on our opportunities.  Hopefully this year we can.  

[LP08]

Hard to ask for much else heading into mid month as WxUSAF said.

[WxUSAF]

 ^yeah, that's straight up pretty gorgeous.  

Haven't seen any 12z MJO-related products, but on the face of it, it seems to contradict with a respectable wave moving through phases 3-6.  But, the MJO isn't the only factor and isn't alway the dominant factor so who knows?  I hope its right, because that's the best H5 pattern we've had for snow in a couple years.  

[poolz1]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 ^yeah, that's straight up pretty gorgeous.  

Haven't seen any 12z MJO-related products, but on the face of it, it seems to contradict with a respectable wave moving through phases 3-6.  But, the MJO isn't the only factor and isn't alway the dominant factor so who knows?  I hope its right, because that's the best H5 pattern we've had for snow in a couple years.  

I certainly could be wrong here but it seems like there was some hinting at the MJO wave gaining some minor/modest amplitude the past few days.  The LR h5 look seemed to be hinting at what we would expect with warm phases.  Yesterday and today, the MJO forecast is very muted and mainly resides in the COD and the LR is now looking stellar again. 

Just a guess.... 

[JakkelWx]

 

[Ji]

12 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

 

seems to be alot of opinions out there. From winter is over to winter is ready to destroy us come late Dec/early Jan

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

seems to be alot of opinions out there. From winter is over to winter is ready to destroy us come late Dec/early Jan

I predict you won’t be satisfied either way 

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I predict you won’t be satisfied either way 

i havent seen snow since 18-19. I would be very happy with a 4 inch storm covering christmas decorations. Unlike last winter...i have zero expectations so anything will be gravy

[mattie g]

2 hours ago, frd said:

Yes, based on MJO movement and other signals. You can be skeptical, however, it would seem the evolution of the pattern to warmer near the 20th is logical. This is a long-range discussion and the period near the 20 th is weirdly associated with a turn to milder in the East. 

I understand the take that we have seemed to turn milder around the solstice in the recent past, but I think using the word "clear" when referring to the pattern we'll be in four weeks from today is fraught with danger. You could be right and we do turn warmer, but I honestly think it's a toss up this far out.

[jaydreb]

1 hour ago, LP08 said:

Hard to ask for much else heading into mid month as WxUSAF said.

No 50/50?  I’m out.