Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 some of you could see more snow in 30 minutes Wednesday then you did all of last winter 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: some of you could see more snow in 30 minutes Wednesday then you did all of last winter Probably more alcohol too... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Gfs ens mean 13 inch mean? Really? This is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 i just found this map of the GFS from 300 hours ago lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Icon finally updated and it too is a mauling considering its warm tendencies. Also has a 1039 high parked up top. Strongest I’ve seen yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 psu said the Icon has been getting closer to the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i just found this map of the GFS from 300 hours ago lol Actually this coming week had potential based on teleconnections for at least 2 weeks, pretty cool!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Must’ve packed it in like the Icon tonight. Went out to 48 and called it a day. The Germans over engineer everything man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: Actually this coming week has potential based on teleconnections for at least 2 weeks, pretty cool!!! that was the Dec 1 12z model run for the GFS. Modeling is sick 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: that was the Dec 1 12z model run for the GFS. Modeling is sick PSU posted something similar for the last coastal (which was all rain)...GFS sniffed that out from 10+ days out but just had the thermals a bit off. USA USA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: that was the Dec 1 12z model run for the GFS. Modeling is sick It is crazy how good it really is. I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 0z Canadian, not sure if this was posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Must’ve packed it in like the Icon tonight. Went out to 48 and called it a day. It’s out on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 RGEM at 84 looks amazing as well. 1038 over the top and strengthening LP off the SC coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lol p27 would pretty much make the entire board happy here. 3 would really suck for the PA peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ukie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM at 84 looks amazing as well. 1038 over the top and strengthening LP off the SC coast. Yep, was going to post the same. If it went past 84, I’d think we’d like what it showed. And nice to see precip already breaking out by hour 84 across the mountains and SW VA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM at 84 looks amazing as well. 1038 over the top and strengthening LP off the SC coast. 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Yep, was going to post the same. If it went past 84, I’d think we’d like what it showed. And nice to see precip already breaking out by hour 84 across the mountains and SW VA. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Amped said: More progressive troff FTW. I think It's the Pacjet behind the storm that causes this since it didn't start out more progressive. We finally found some use for that thing 1 hour ago, Amped said: Big wiff north of NYC almost like FEB 2010, but cutoff is a bit further north. The 2010 cutoff was crazy. Razor thin...cutoff even went south of due east as it hit the wall. Crazy blocking. This cutoff is more typical of big storms...1996, 2016...where there is a sharp northern cutoff somewhere as you hit the confluence but its not like going from over a foot to nothing in 30 miles like some places in 2010. 1 hour ago, Ji said: Those DMV specials often do this right? yea...because for us to get crushed we need that confluence to our north...not just to stop the storm from cutting but to create the crazy lift and fgen you get from the WAA be resisting. If there is no resistance the warm air just pushes north and you don't get the same VV's. The more the cold resists the more lift. But that means there is likely a wall of confluence somewhere to your north and the northern edge will hit a brick wall somewhere. Add in the subsidence you will get outside that NW most banding and you can get a pretty sharp cutoff. 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: It's a pretty classic Miller A It is definitely more Miller A then it was represented a few days ago. And I would agree with your assessment. But there are some that classify any system with a primary that initially gets up west of the apps as a hybrid. Some even argued that 96 was hybrid because there was a trough up west of the apps early in its development. I think that is going a bit far but...I am not one to argue over definitions much. 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Actually this coming week had potential based on teleconnections for at least 2 weeks, pretty cool!!! Yea the guidance has been on a long range roll lately. It pegged this from super long range as a "window of opportunity" and there was about 36 hours where it became a bit murky there but for the most part this was a time to watch from weeks ago. Guidance is hinting at another period after xmas that bears watching now...lets see if they remain on a heater. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ukie Snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Cobb data is out for the 0Z GFS run. It is surprisingly bad for east of 81 so I wont post it. If anyone want to look at it. go to this link and change MRB to your closest airport code. I am not trying to add negativity to this thread: https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kmrb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I told y'all not to worry 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Cobb data is out for the 0Z GFS run. It is surprisingly bad for east of 81 so I wont post it. If anyone want to look at it. go to this link and change MRB to your closest airport code. I am not trying to add negativity to this thread: https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kmrb Looked great for KCHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 UKIE 6-12 for most i95 and west... @mappy jackpot (north central MD into NE MD 12"+) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This from MAG5035 in the central PA forum "Hmm, well at least on the WeatherBell products it appears the op data for the GFS and Euro is 0.25º and 0.1º respectively while their ensembles are both at 0.5º resolution. Without getting into a whole thing on GIS/mapping/degrees to meters conversion, the short answer would be yea the ensembles are run at a lower resolution (higher degree number). The high res Euro at 0.1º would be a bigger resolution difference vs it's ensemble. So I guess it could be implied that the lower resolution could flatten mesoscale features and thermal boundaries a bit and that difference could show with coastal low development, especially with how warm the water is off the eastern seaboard. Also, ensembles aren't going to see CAD as well as an op or especially a meso model for that same general reasoning. The higher resolution of the ops might be promoting a more explosive coastal response (and also closer to the coastline) just simply on the premise of modeling a sharper clash of warm vs cold. Given the +SST anomalies present on the eastern seaboard and a fairly respectable cold air air mass being supplied by the Canadian high, it may be wise to lean that direction with trying to blend guidance. Ultimately, I'm not sure how much the resolution difference actually plays in the grand scheme of things, as an ensemble is made of individual members that have their own specific conditionals to form a mean within a range of possible outcomes, which pretty much can have a similar effect as lower resolution flattening features out. Thing with ensembles is we're typically looking at them to get a handle on overall larger scale things with these events (QPF fields, pressure/height fields, accumulation probabilities, etc).. especially at this middle range where we don't have our short range or meso models in range quite yet. " 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DownpourDave Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I don't have access but I read on another forum that the gfs-para is a good hit for both storms.... I hope they meant mid mid Atlantic and not NEPA or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: I don't have access but I read on another forum that the gfs-para is a good hit for both storms.... I hope they meant mid mid Atlantic and not NEPA or something. You do have access. Go to Pivotalweather.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That follow up wave on the Gfs has some ice out this way for Sunday. Temps are pretty atrocious. But something to watch at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Well, the 00z runs were pretty much a great run for all of the sub-forum, and being totally serious, the CMC actually had some room for improvement (Yes, it could've been a whole lot better) and the GFS finally got a grip and has a surface reflection more indicative to its 5H progression. There wasn't much of a shift at 5H outside the eventual close off over DE, but that's something that won't be solved until closer to game time. CAD sig on both the CMC and GFS were classic for a precursor to a major snow for the Balt/DC megalopolis with the wedge down to SC/N GA. One of the biggest differences between the GFS and CMC was actually the extension of dry air at 7H that lead to the storm cutting off a bit abruptly. The 700mb moisture field was actually a good 1 deviation drier than the GFS as a whole, which would limit some of the total moisture content available for the storm. The + Theta-E advection nose was focused well to the north of the area on the CMC where all other models have it right into the sub-forum. One of the biggest reasonings was the CMC actually led an open 7H depiction until just north of our latitude, so that would cause the heaviest plume to be centered over NJ/NY/PA instead of MD/VA. I'm not too worried about that unless it's a pattern the other models pick up. In any case, both would provide warning criteria snows for much of the area. The deformation axis on the GFS is sublime with a co-located 7H and 85H frontogen placed along I-95 with 7H extension back to the western folks. There's a classic "warm nose" indication at 850mb that we see with bombing cyclones in these parts, and that's actually a good thing because that's an indicator of prime moisture advection into the boundary layer in co-location with the lift. This will be a fun event for many and we haven't even talked about banding yet. Good times 20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: You do have access. Go to Pivotalweather.com This is Saturday 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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