Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS has the stronger low---GGEM better CAD. Looks like it ends up a wash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 0z GFS ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Canadian is pretty cold in the areas getting heavy snow. This storm will have some brutal cutoffs as depicted. It'll be a forum divider along some line, TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Does Canadian look like it may have that tucked in look like 18z gfs did? That high pressure is an ideal spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 0z GEFS 7pm Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 00z GEFS is a marked improvement from 18z, which really wasn't a bad run. Nice. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: Lol. There will NOT be snow on the ground in dc for Xmas... at least not the remainder of weds storm. Perhaps another storm. I think we should be careful in describing 6-12 “area wide”. I think the models are a trying to show some of the first red flags for 95 crew. By my count, there’s a considerable more amount of (almost) whiffs on the 18z eps. I think the amped NE hp and PNA might be coming back to earth a bit. I do not see us just “needed to 2 more degrees” for area wide 12”+. I think there’s a strong case that actually goes the other way actually. We’ll see but my wag is 0Z euro holds course from 12z, with just a touch warmer at 850/925 and we all argue about the granularity of this revelation. You can't rule anything out yet. Let's see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 All the models I've seen today make this a close play for our section of I95. Absolutely on the margins. Shift east 30 miles and we bullseye, shift west by the same amount and we'll be lucky to get a couple of sloppy inches. My gut says that's bad news at gametime - I think maybe 1 in 5 like this break our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GGEM is a faster moving storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 00z GEFS is a marked improvement from 18z, which really wasn't a bad run. Nice. Here's a trend of the lps too, nice. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS ens leaning pretty far SE now lol might have the opposite worry sooner then we hoped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GEM is a little bit faster than the GFS other than that they are very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: GFS ens leaning pretty far SE now lol might have the opposite worry sooner then we hoped It's about that time when we get some OTS burp runs to get the NW crew panicking about being fringed. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs ens mean 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: GFS ens leaning pretty far SE now lol might have the opposite worry sooner then we hoped Anything is possible but I would be much more worried about a north trend. I dont see this trending SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Cmc snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS ENS Mean is gorgeous. Please have the Euro follow suit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 0z GEFS snow maps 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Unreal cutoff south of Baltimore showing up on almost every model. Difference of a foot over 50 miles. That has to be watched closely. NYC the Lower Hudson valley E PA and NNJ are going to get walloped by this. H5 cut off by AC - someone’s going to hit 30” up there. Feeling pretty confident that the area between myself, PSU, and clredskin is looking pretty darn good for at least 6” at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: Anything is possible but I would be much more worried about a north trend. I dont see this trending SE. I mean for me confluence continues to be progged a little stronger as we get closer to game time. I may end up being wrong but for me that will more or less force the low to feel it’s effects and go more south than north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0z GEFS snow maps Lol p27 would pretty much make the entire board happy here. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I mean for me confluence continues to be progged a little stronger as we get closer to game time. I may end up being wrong but for me that will more or less force the low to feel it’s effects and go more south than north. We all know no one would be shocked to wake up tomorrow to a 06z GFS run that has the southern MD crew buzzing and psuhoffman writing up a 1,000 word explanation of what happened. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It's about that time when we get some OTS burp runs to get the NW crew panicking about being fringed. thats where the ukmet comes in and sends a 1012 low off the Jacksonville coast 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 COULD be a storm where reisterstown sees a foot and heavy snow while Brooklyn and Annapolis see a sloppy 6” if this thing nudges west over the next 48 hours. With that being said... h5 and CAD have been trending really nicely since 12z and I expect 00z euro to follow suit. The ideal storm for the setup we’re currently in falls right between the 00z GFS and the 00z CMC. I don’t want to get my hopes up too high just to get burned but DAMN, does it feel good to be tracking a major winter storm in mid December again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lol p27 would pretty much make the entire board happy here. wonder what happened to P09 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: We all know no one would be shocked to wake up tomorrow to a 06z GFS run that has the southern MD crew buzzing and psuhoffman writing up a 1,000 word explanation of what happened. Boy I hope not. I want everyone to cash in here. We could all use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lol p27 would pretty much make the entire board happy here. Looks like the Canadian honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: wonder what happened to P09 Must’ve packed it in like the Icon tonight. Went out to 48 and called it a day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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