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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

Lol. There will NOT be snow on the ground in dc for Xmas... at least not the remainder of weds storm. Perhaps another storm.

I think we should be careful in describing 6-12 “area wide”. I think the models are a trying to show some of the first red flags for 95 crew. By my count, there’s a considerable more amount of (almost) whiffs on the 18z eps. I think the amped NE hp and PNA might be coming back to earth a bit. I do not see us just “needed to 2 more degrees” for area wide 12”+. I think there’s a strong case that actually goes the other way actually.

We’ll see but my wag is 0Z euro holds course from 12z, with just a touch warmer at 850/925 and we all argue about the granularity of this revelation.
 

You can't rule anything out yet. Let's see what happens! 

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All the models I've seen today make this a close play for our section of I95. Absolutely on the margins. Shift east 30 miles and we bullseye, shift west by the same amount and we'll be lucky to get a couple of sloppy inches. My gut says that's bad news at gametime - I think maybe 1 in 5 like this break our way? 

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Unreal cutoff south of Baltimore showing up on almost every model. Difference of a foot over 50 miles. That has to be watched closely. NYC the Lower Hudson valley E PA and NNJ are going to get walloped by this. H5 cut off by AC - someone’s going to hit 30” up there. 
 

Feeling pretty confident that the area between myself, PSU, and clredskin is looking pretty darn good for at least 6” at this point. 

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Just now, HighStakes said:

Anything is possible but I would be much more worried about a north trend. I dont see this trending SE.

I mean for me confluence continues to be progged a little stronger as we get closer to game time. I may end up being wrong but for me that will more or less force the low to feel it’s effects and go more south than north.

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

I mean for me confluence continues to be progged a little stronger as we get closer to game time. I may end up being wrong but for me that will more or less force the low to feel it’s effects and go more south than north.

We all know no one would be shocked to wake up tomorrow to a 06z GFS run that has the southern MD crew buzzing and psuhoffman writing up a 1,000 word explanation of what happened.

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COULD be a storm where reisterstown sees a foot and heavy snow while Brooklyn and Annapolis see a sloppy 6” if this thing nudges west over the next 48 hours.   

With that being said... h5 and CAD have been trending really nicely since 12z and I expect 00z euro to follow suit. The ideal storm for the setup we’re currently in falls right between the 00z GFS and the 00z CMC. 

I don’t want to get my hopes up too high just to get burned but DAMN, does it feel good to be tracking a major winter storm in mid December again. 

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2 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

We all know no one would be shocked to wake up tomorrow to a 06z GFS run that has the southern MD crew buzzing and psuhoffman writing up a 1,000 word explanation of what happened.

Boy I hope not. I want everyone to cash in here. We could all use it.

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