Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: The way it's being modeled to bomb, it has to be a hybrid right? It's a pretty classic Miller A 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Lets just lock in the GFS right now and call it a day. Pretty much everyone would be happy. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Boy do I feel pretty silly about melting down after 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Deck Pic said: His 18z ensembles were nice for us... I expect him to show some forgiveness at 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Feels like 2009 in here. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 i really like CMC high placement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Who has a CMC Snowmap? I want more digital snow beat downs to look at 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This H5 look at hour 102 is absolutely classic. If it can close off slightly sooner and/or farther south, I think just about everyone in this forum will be very happy. The deformation zone would be pretty sweet verbatim. I think it’s pretty clear the 18z GFS that caused weenie suicides was just a blip; the GEFS suite being east was a red flag. What’s encouraging is seeing the vort pass through sooner, which prevented higher heights from building in the Atlantic. This is key for allowing the system to take an offshore track rather than move too close to the coast, as well as not completely torching the mid-layers. Hopefully the Euro and it’s ensembles can follow suit. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS has the stronger low---GGEM better CAD. Looks like it ends up a wash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 0z GFS ens mean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Canadian is pretty cold in the areas getting heavy snow. This storm will have some brutal cutoffs as depicted. It'll be a forum divider along some line, TBD. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Does Canadian look like it may have that tucked in look like 18z gfs did? That high pressure is an ideal spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 0z GEFS 7pm Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 00z GEFS is a marked improvement from 18z, which really wasn't a bad run. Nice. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, PivotPoint said: Lol. There will NOT be snow on the ground in dc for Xmas... at least not the remainder of weds storm. Perhaps another storm. I think we should be careful in describing 6-12 “area wide”. I think the models are a trying to show some of the first red flags for 95 crew. By my count, there’s a considerable more amount of (almost) whiffs on the 18z eps. I think the amped NE hp and PNA might be coming back to earth a bit. I do not see us just “needed to 2 more degrees” for area wide 12”+. I think there’s a strong case that actually goes the other way actually. We’ll see but my wag is 0Z euro holds course from 12z, with just a touch warmer at 850/925 and we all argue about the granularity of this revelation. You can't rule anything out yet. Let's see what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 All the models I've seen today make this a close play for our section of I95. Absolutely on the margins. Shift east 30 miles and we bullseye, shift west by the same amount and we'll be lucky to get a couple of sloppy inches. My gut says that's bad news at gametime - I think maybe 1 in 5 like this break our way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GGEM is a faster moving storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: 00z GEFS is a marked improvement from 18z, which really wasn't a bad run. Nice. Here's a trend of the lps too, nice. 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS ens leaning pretty far SE now lol might have the opposite worry sooner then we hoped 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GEM is a little bit faster than the GFS other than that they are very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: GFS ens leaning pretty far SE now lol might have the opposite worry sooner then we hoped It's about that time when we get some OTS burp runs to get the NW crew panicking about being fringed. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Gfs ens mean 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: GFS ens leaning pretty far SE now lol might have the opposite worry sooner then we hoped Anything is possible but I would be much more worried about a north trend. I dont see this trending SE. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Cmc snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 GFS ENS Mean is gorgeous. Please have the Euro follow suit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 0z GEFS snow maps 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS has the stronger low---GGEM better CAD. Looks like it ends up a wash? This is rhetorical. We're going to rip and read the euro, and ignore all other guidance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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