Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 93 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Crushing 95/West at 96 Yeah, even DC does pretty well on that map. Close, but back off the ledge from 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, PhineasC said: Much better run than 18z here, but the cities are right on the line, especially DC. DC is pouring snow at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 phew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Big differences in LP placement and consolidation vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah...this one's a beaut. Yeah..this panel is pretty sweet...even here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Jesus worlds difference. Really puts in perspective how amped 18z was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Sorry I posted this in the wrong thread a min ago @dtk @WxUSAF @high risk do you know what resolution the GEFS and EPS members are run at compared to the operational? I have noticed that the ensemble members (of both the EPS and GEFS) have been running warmer even with similar or further east tracks then the operational runs. This has been a consistent correlation for several runs across both ensemble suits. The track of the operationals has changed but the presentation of the thermal structure of the storm has remained fairly consistent...meaning where you expect the thermal boundaries to be wrt to mslp is roughly the same places each run dependent on the MSLP. But those same thermal boundaries seem to be further NW given the same MSLP track on the individual ensemble members of both the EPS and GEFS. I am wondering if they are run at a lower resolution...they may be warmer due to not modeling the meso scale features as well. That may not be correct...just grasping at possible causality for the observation I noted. I know back in the day the NAM would pick up on CAD better due to its higher resolution...one of the few things it was good for at range with a winter synoptic event. You had to adjust for its over amplified bias...but you could get an idea what the thermal structure of the storm might look like. I'm not sure about the EPS, but the GEFS members are run at 25 km resolution, while the ops GFS is 13 km. So yes, that could be making a difference. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, even DC does pretty well on that map. Close, but back off the ledge from 18z Playing with fire but staying on the colder side this time. Go big or go home. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 More progressive troff FTW. I think It's the Pacjet behind the storm that causes this since it didn't start out more progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 99 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Send in the clowns... 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 1 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 102 Hr. 995 LP off Delmarva and puking snow region wide! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 33 minutes ago, Curlyq said: If this is the case, surprised another thread hasn't been started for Wednesday You know the deal. Superstition is real here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: Playing with fire but staying on the colder side this time. Go big or go home. I mean, that's our default, so that's nothing new 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Jesus worlds difference. Really puts in perspective how amped 18z was It was only 2 mb stronger. It’s the placement 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Boooom Yes, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Good post 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 LP hits confluence hard and heads due east from 102 hr to 108 hr off DelMarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 h5 actually is almost closed off at 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I feel bad for everyone's washing machine. Everyone's going to need to wash their pants now. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Good post i actually got beat so I deleted it, but agreed. maybe one of the best I've ever made. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 102 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It's actually 2mb deeper this run at the critical moment for us...from 90-96 hours...it just lost that wonky due north jog that screwed us 18z. More in line with the ensembles. The SW associated with the primary was slightly less amplified originally and that helped. Don't want that to go negative too soon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Now we are talking. Looks great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This is about as perfect a track and scenario we can get here. I'm getting ready to push my chips in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Man. This is an epic beatdown for all of us for a December storm. Unreal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moderately Unstable Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: 102 I'm in the wrong forum but YAY!!!!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Negnao Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 99 Navgem jumped on a slightly more progressive progression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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