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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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3 minutes ago, Yeoman said:

That primary needs to be in northern Tennessee

Def wouldn’t take much but I think even where it is at now we can still bank on all frozen for cad areas because that high is in a really good spot. Just depends what type of frozen is your cup of tea. I really want snow but after last year I will take anything I can get at least for myself. 

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Sorry I posted this in the wrong thread a min ago

@dtk @WxUSAF @high risk

do you know what resolution the GEFS and EPS members are run at compared to the operational?  I have noticed that the ensemble members (of both the EPS and GEFS) have been running warmer even with similar or further east tracks then the operational runs.  This has been a consistent correlation for several runs across both ensemble suits.  The track of the operationals has changed but the presentation of the thermal structure of the storm has remained fairly consistent...meaning where you expect the thermal boundaries to be wrt to mslp is roughly the same places each run dependent on the MSLP.  But those same thermal boundaries seem to be further NW given the same MSLP track on the individual ensemble members of both the EPS and GEFS.  I am wondering if they are run at a lower resolution...they may be warmer due to not modeling the meso scale features as well.  That may not be correct...just grasping at possible causality for the observation I noted.  I know back in the day the NAM would pick up on CAD better due to its higher resolution...one of the few things it was good for at range with a winter synoptic event.  You had to adjust for its over amplified bias...but you could get an idea what the thermal structure of the storm might look like.  

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