osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Seems like Euro cut qpf quite a bit from 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: Seems like Euro cut qpf quite a bit from 12z? Isn’t this the time frame where Euro or some of the models have their blips and then come back to reality? Usually between 72-96 hours or so from start time? Do some wonky things and then recorrect? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Do realize we would be getting a decent snow a week before Christmas in our region if it is 6-12 inches and above. It's been a while since that happened, and we might still have the snow on the ground on Christmas Day itself with the cold temps. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Yup thats what I have been expecting all along. I am hoping for the back end thump with the deform band per the 12z op run.. Anything at the front end will be washed away most likely. When's the last time we had a deform band materialize on the shore, always seems to be pulling away to quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Climate175 said: Do realize we would be getting a decent snow a week before Christmas in our region if it is 6-12 inches and above. It's been a while since that happened, and we might still have the snow on the ground on Christmas Day itself with the cold temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said: When's the last time we had a deform band materialize on the shore, always seems to be pulling away to quick. 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, SnowtoRain said: When's the last time we had a deform band materialize on the shore, always seems to be pulling away to quick. March 18 clipped his area pretty good 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, SnowtoRain said: When's the last time we had a deform band materialize on the shore, always seems to be pulling away to quick. Oh it happens in pretty much all the biggies.(excluding the 2016 debacle).This one will be on the move and mostly to the NE, so it would likely be pretty brief. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 40 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No one along or west of I-95 should be upset with the 18z EPS...even cutting the totals in half, it's a solid low end warning event at least. Even Charles and southern PG get a decent advisory level event. Not upset with that look at all. Almost warning level down here NW of FXBG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: I am talking about the High over Southern Canada. It keeps shifting further east each run. Your are just looking at an H. Look at the pressure lines. Virtually identical Sorry, didn’t realize others had chimed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Climate175 said: Do realize we would be getting a decent snow a week before Christmas in our region if it is 6-12 inches and above. It's been a while since that happened, and we might still have the snow on the ground on Christmas Day itself with the cold temps. It’s that damn CMC run with the green snow depth yesterday. I’m telling you it fcuks with people. Gets everyone juiced up so much that 6 inches seems like a fail. It’s not right it’s just the MA forum crew MO. We have a chance to reset again for 0z with 4 days left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 2016 Not over here. It shriveled to nothing as it moved east. We dry slotted and never got more than a dusting after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not over here. It shriveled to nothing as it moved east. We dry slotted and never got more than a dusting after that. I lucked out and it dropped 7" on the 14" I got before dry slotting also. It was a nail biter while in the dry slot. Then it finally moved in around 2ish. It dumped hard late that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 30 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc? Tomorrow...or 72 hours...? Bob Chill always said around 72 hrs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Before the 0z starts..fwiw I think the 18z rgem looked great at 84 hours. High stronger and further SW then most other guidance. Faster wave. It looked like it was about to get good. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowtoRain Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, osfan24 said: 2016 2016 missed the eastern shore, 10" on the front end , 2" of sleet, and then 1" the rest of the next day, while the western shore was getting hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I lucked out and and dropped 7" on the 14" I got before dry slotting also. It was a nail biter while in the dry slot. Then it finally moved in around 2ish. It dumped hard late that afternoon. Yeah I cant recall why that band rapidly weakened as it moved east. Kind of unusual for the big storms around here. 1996 had an incredible CCB after the sleety period. I ended up with 15" before the dry slot hit, but it sucked because I wanted the 20+ I was promised. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 0z nam looks to be trying to set the stage for a better 50/50 with wave 1 exiting toward Nova Scotia at 51. Yes I’m ready for the 0z suite and no I’m not ashamed to extrapolate the nam. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 In some model down time I’ll just say this is a bread and butter type event for us. Happy to be in the game with a storm and cold air coming together. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 50 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc? Tomorrow...or 72 hours...? When it starts showing rain 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Out to 63 stout wedge building in. High looks to be a little stronger as well. All the panels haven’t updated yet so only have surface and not upper levels as they’re stuck at 45. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 48 minutes ago, Climate175 said: Do realize we would be getting a decent snow a week before Christmas in our region if it is 6-12 inches and above. It's been a while since that happened, and we might still have the snow on the ground on Christmas Day itself with the cold temps. Lol. There will NOT be snow on the ground in dc for Xmas... at least not the remainder of weds storm. Perhaps another storm. I think we should be careful in describing 6-12 “area wide”. I think the models are a trying to show some of the first red flags for 95 crew. By my count, there’s a considerable more amount of (almost) whiffs on the 18z eps. I think the amped NE hp and PNA might be coming back to earth a bit. I do not see us just “needed to 2 more degrees” for area wide 12”+. I think there’s a strong case that actually goes the other way actually. We’ll see but my wag is 0Z euro holds course from 12z, with just a touch warmer at 850/925 and we all argue about the granularity of this revelation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Out to 63 stout wedge building in. High looks to be a little stronger as well. All the panels haven’t updated yet so only have surface and not upper levels as they’re stuck at 45. Can’t wait for our first NAMing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 0z NAM.. at 84 hours for what it is worth.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yeah. No doubt the NAM would be a beatdown for pretty much all of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Here’s 84hr panel.. big time cad all the way down into NW SC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Can’t wait for our first NAMing. Wait. That’s on the bingo card right? Lol 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Buddy1987 said: Here’s 84hr panel.. big time cad all the way down into NW SC some mixing in northern GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yeah. No doubt the NAM would be a beatdown for pretty much all of us. At least we know some snow is almost a lock at this point for almost everyone here. That was a stretch just about 10 days ago. You should be stoked! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Scraff said: Wait. That’s on the bingo card right? Lol The bingo card was brilliance at work. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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