NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This might be an appreciable difference from 12z. I'll let someone smart comment on it. 18z: 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other. I think we are good in here for now brother. If you start a separate thread and the 0Z runs suck it will only be us western folks in it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 @tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Accuweather out with their snowfall forecast. 6-12” blue ridge parkway points west. 12-18” over much of eastern PA. The map is low imo for Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, even Charlottesville to the south. We shall see where things go 12-18 3 days out? Holy crap Accuweather went full weenie. My only comment on the 18Z Euro is the CAD still looks really good. I havent seen the upper air winds though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: @tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers. I thought it looked a tad weaker too. Not sure what it means later. Might be noise. Overall everything looked the same. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: 12-18 3 days out? Holy crap Accuweather went full weenie. My only comment on the 18Z Euro is the CAD still looks really good. I havent seen the upper air winds though. That's crazy. We're still like 90 hours away from potential flakes flying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Accuweather out with their snowfall forecast. 6-12” blue ridge parkway points west. 12-18” over much of eastern PA. The map is low imo for Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, even Charlottesville to the south. We shall see where things go This looks fine to me. It actually seems bullish at this range with Baltimore in the 6-12 and DC possibly in it or very close to it as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12z op GFS at has a monster 200 mb jetstream that allow the surface low to really ventilate and torque west. The 00z/06z/12z did not have a feature as pronounced. Wonder if that's a blip or a sign of something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Totally forgot the 18z doesn't go past 90. I was refreshing like a maniac, haha. I'm not smart enough to extrapolate but I'm not seeing any obvious warning signs here. I will say the CAD looks better on the 12z. If you compare it to 12z same time, the HP in Can. is further east at 18Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers. Other than the slightly weaker system the rest of the representation is remarkably similar for 84 hours. The pressure field up top is nearly perfectly identical. Wrt slightly weaker...if we lose a tiny bit of the mega banding qpf but get this to tuck just a little less that’s probably a winning trade off for most of us. We have dynamics to spare here, room to breath with the track not so much. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Weather Will said: If you compare it to 12z same time, the HP in Can. is further east at 18Z. By like 3 miles maybe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 19 minutes ago, Chris78 said: That's crazy. We're still like 90 hours away from potential flakes flying. CWG should be taking notes. At least accuweather has some balls to put a real forecast out there! 4 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: By like 3 miles maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: I think the 540 line did move 3 miles...maybe 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 @WxUSAF one other minor different wrt 18z euro. The thermal boundary shifted north ever so slightly in southern VA by like 10-15 miles but the cold is still draining increasing the gradient so the entire profile didn’t retreat just along the edge. However, it’s colder west of the apps in KY on top of the primary. I don’t the primary would make it as far north on the 18z v 12z. That is provably a trade off I would take for the ever so slight changes in the temps and pressure among the coast. Thoughts? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: I think the 540 line did move 3 miles...maybe 4 I am talking about the High over Southern Canada. It keeps shifting further east each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 25 minutes ago, osfan24 said: This looks fine to me. It actually seems bullish at this range with Baltimore in the 6-12 and DC possibly in it or very close to it as well. D.C. is barely 1-3 on that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 IMO, there are negligible changes between the 18z OP Euro at HR90 and the 12z OP Euro at the same timeframe. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Lol. Not your fault but that map has the high from the 12z run in the wrong spot. I think because the map cuts off just below the true center of the high. Here.. like I said maybe a few miles apart... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Lol. Not your fault but that map has the high from the 12z run in the wrong spot. I think because the map cuts off just below the true center of the high. Here.. like I said maybe a few miles apart... Thanks... I will use the pressure maps in the future. I learned something new again today...reason I’m here... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Copied from the board 33andrain 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: Thanks... I will use the pressure maps in the future. I learned something new again today...reason I’m here... I wasn’t picking on you. That was totally ok. Not your fault. That map did say what you said. Those multi plot precip type charts aren’t as precise with estimating pressure locations as the mslp plots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @WxUSAF one other minor different wrt 18z euro. The thermal boundary shifted north ever so slightly in southern VA by like 10-15 miles but the cold is still draining increasing the gradient so the entire profile didn’t retreat just along the edge. However, it’s colder west of the apps in KY on top of the primary. I don’t the primary would make it as far north on the 18z v 12z. That is provably a trade off I would take for the ever so slight changes in the temps and pressure among the coast. Thoughts? Yeah, I’ve only seen maps folks have posts here and on other forums, but all looks like minor details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18z looks like it holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: Yeah, I’ve only seen maps folks have posts here and on other forums, but all looks like minor details. Was comparing these wrt the colder profile on top of the primary in KY. Thermals did retreat SLIGHTLY in VA too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I am talking about the High over Southern Canada. It keeps shifting further east each run. Right. Wasn’t being snarky. I just follow the 540 contour because it’s easy. I would be quite happy if the 534 was south of DC..but it’s not. Sadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wasn’t picking on you. That was totally ok. Not your fault. That map did say what you said. Those multi plot precip type charts aren’t as precise with estimating pressure locations as the mslp plots. I know that. I appreciate your expertise and kindness. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, wkd said: Copied from the board 33andrain Okay that's a bit aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I’m actually surprised the individual members/mean don’t look slightly better given these panels. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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