December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[WxUSAF]

D^T says toss that ish!

 

[clskinsfan]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

D^T says toss that ish!

 

THIS IS TOTAL CRAP. Handled with all of the aplomb DT is known for.

[WxUSAF]

Just now, clskinsfan said:

THIS IS TOTAL CRAP. Handled with all of the aplomb DT is know for.

It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. 
 

Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go. 

[jaydreb]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. 
 

Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go. 

Isn’t it consistent with 12z EPS, which was pretty far west?

[clskinsfan]

Cobb data is out for 18Z GFS. I wont post it. It is ugly for east of 81. We toss this run. 

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Isn’t it consistent with 12z EPS, which was pretty far west?

Nowhere like 18z gfs. Mean track off shore as far as I can see. 

[PivotPoint]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. 
 

Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go. 

I feel like a west jog is almost inevitable given the modeled NE hp ever so slightly retreating over past two runs and PNA (again) just not quite as pumped as prior runs. 
 

We cant forget how MUCH we really need to go right in the mid-Atlantic (especially 95 crew) to get a 12”+ storm. It sucks actually. Total crap!

Eta: the total crap was not a jab at all by the way. Came out naturally lol

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Isn’t it consistent with 12z EPS, which was pretty far west?

fwiw. slightly more west than 06z but there are some big members messing with the mean again (986mb over Hagerstown, for example).

I'd say there are more along the Chesapeake than we'd like but it's more than workable. 

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Nowhere like 18z gfs. Mean track off shore as far as I can see. 

Looked almost the same as the Euro op to me.

[midatlanticweather]

Come on 18z Euro.. Keep hope alive

[WxUSAF]

@psuhoffman look again at the 12z euro SLP track. 
102hr off south end of OBX.

108hr mouth of the Bay

114hr due north (!) over Rehobeth beach 

120hr moves southeast (!) out to sea

This is all about how the upper level energy stacks and captures the surface low. Get it to stack in a good place, and we get nuked. As it is, that’s why we get an awesome CCB death band on the euro. Get it to stack in a poor place and it’s 

[WxUSAF]

 

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, 12+ is hard along 95 but you’ll be led astray 9 times out of 10 if you’re only using the clown maps to set your expectations.

Don’t ruin a perfectly excellent 8-9” event because you had inflated expectations watching the Euro op at 120 hours. That goes for any location along the EC.

Mentally I've been thinking 6-8" with a slight chance of an upside if things really lined up. I'd be good with that...will be disappointed if it busts lower though.

[jayyy]

Helluva week to make a return! Looking decent for 6” or more area wide! 

[Scraff]

7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Come on 18z Euro.. Keep hope alive

Coming back to weenie windshield wipe the other side of the window. Tomorrow night the wipers should stop somewhere in the middle...and we hope it’s slightly off the OC coast. 

[jayyy]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Mentally I've been thinking 6-8" with a slight chance of an upside if things really lined up. I'd be good with that...will be disappointed if it busts lower though.

I like the call. 6-8” is a realistic call at this point. My folks who live 40 miles NW of nyc are in for 12+ easily - I’m a bit jealous. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Mentally I've been thinking 6-8" with a slight chance of an upside if things really lined up. I'd be good with that...will be disappointed if it busts lower though.

6 inch storm in December is straight money.   Don’t sleep on it.  I hope we can break 6.

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Mentally I've been thinking 6-8" with a slight chance of an upside if things really lined up. I'd be good with that...will be disappointed if it busts lower though.

This is a good state of mind to have. And I think it is a realistic possibility. The thing is people forget just how much snow 8 inches really is. It has been too long for an area wide 6+ snow. 

[clueless]

I haven’t seen real snow for two years. The only good thing about 2020 is that we are tracking something now  - DECEMBER - that may give us snow that we can count in ‘inches’.  It is a freakin’ miracle in my book. Perspective people.  

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, Clueless said:

I haven’t seen real snow for two years. The only good thing about 2020 is that we are tracking something now  - DECEMBER - that may give us snow that we can count in ‘inches’.  It is a freakin’ miracle in my book. Perspective people.  

There really should be no "bar", or threshold for disappointment, when most of us did not even crack an inch last winter.

[wawarriors4]

10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I think that’s a good place to be. Region wide (sorry eastern shore) warning level event seems totally reasonable even with some mixing. Anything more is gravy. The overall setup before you get to any computer generated maps is really good for most places. 

If things go right this isn’t a pinpoint strike where only westerners get hit, it’s a carpet bombing. Of the wintry variety.  

@MillvilleWx made great points on this earlier.

That’s kind of where I am at right now, 6”+ down here just NW of Fredericksburg would be nice. I know I’m going to mix, or change to rain, happens in most big storms. Maybe warning criteria of 5”+ or really any snow would be a better bar, but either way, it’s nice to track something in December.

[osfan24]

21 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

6 inch storm in December is straight money.   Don’t sleep on it.  I hope we can break 6.

This sounds nice and all, but when rain/snow line is hanging around and there is 2+ inches of qpf on the Euro, I want the big dog. They only come around so often.

[AmericanWxFreak]

I'll break some of the tension in the room 

[osfan24]

BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other.

[NorthArlington101]

Totally forgot the 18z doesn't go past 90. I was refreshing like a maniac, haha. I'm not smart enough to extrapolate but I'm not seeing any obvious warning signs here. I will say the CAD looks better on the 12z.

[Snowchaser]

Accuweather out with their snowfall forecast.

6-12” blue ridge parkway points west. 
12-18” over much of eastern PA.

The map is low imo for Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, even Charlottesville to the south.
We shall see where things go 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other.

What storm?

[NorthArlington101]

This might be an appreciable difference from 12z. I'll let someone smart comment on it.

18z:

12z:

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other.

I think we are good in here for now brother. If you start a separate thread and the 0Z runs suck it will only be us western folks in it. 

[WxUSAF]

@tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers.