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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good.  -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like.

Overrunning is money when done right.  A wrapped up Miller A is great but so rare and precarious that it’s almost always threading a rusty needle.  

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good.  -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like.

You talking ensemble mean?

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4 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good.  -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like.

Been doing family holiday stuff and catching up on work and didn’t post but the other day when I glanced at the actual eps members it appeared to me the breakdown was more due to a significant but minority camp of solutions that re-established the Nina pattern and went crazy with a +NAO and conus ridge. That camp was washing out the other members that still had a more favorable look.  I rarely have time to dig that deep anymore but the mean cam sometimes be misleading.  That said I’m guarded about mid December due to hints the mjo wants to amplify near the MC. That could return is to the Nina puke pattern.  What I’m interested in seeing is if that is transient or locks in. 

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On 11/28/2020 at 1:21 PM, Wentzadelphia said:

No one wants it to snow more than me. Trust me. I’ve storm chased snowstorms where I couldn’t afford it but went anyway. Hell I lost a job because of 2015 NE event . Ji will tell you if he recalls, but the 2001 bust sent me into a depression at 14 years old. I’m sick in the head when it comes to snow. 

Meant to respond yesterday: Dude, this right here? You are certainly not alone. I have had to weather similar psychological reactions to snow fails. I have been wanting to start a thread about the whole psychology of this...(tried but didn't get too many responses, lol). I'm not sure why we react the way we do, or how to dig ourselves out of the ditch (or stop ourselves from getting in there) when it happens. 

Shoot, I still just get a tad perturbed wben thinking about our more recent fails (like 12/8/18 or the miss in March of that year)...and it kinda piles on top of whatever isn't going right snow-wise. Ya tell yourself that this is such a tiny part of life and not worth the emotional energy...yet ya find yourself slipping, lol

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Might get a shot of legit cold air around mid month with this look. AK trough muted, and cold air in central Canada decently recharged. Have to watch the western ridging as it appears to waning/retrograding some at this point- might be wrong, temporary, or the pattern could be evolving to one more typical of a Nina.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_64.png

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1 hour ago, CAPE said:

Might get a shot of legit cold air around mid month with this look. AK trough muted, and cold air in central Canada decently recharged. Have to watch the western ridging as it appears to waning/retrograding some at this point- might be wrong, temporary, or the pattern could be evolving to one more typical of a Nina.

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_64.png

Agree with you here on the cold shot if this is correct. This looks like a transient cold shot though, looks like it’s about to turn into ugliness post mid-month

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59 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Agree with you here on the cold shot if this is correct. This looks like a transient cold shot though, looks like it’s about to turn into ugliness post mid-month

Yup. You can see the Pac puke lining up just in time for Christmas. After that it's probably lights out for the rest of the winter.

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It’s over. Tried to tell you guys this early on. 
 

Modeled good patterns don’t materialize or they are very transient. When you see talk of SSW and MJO phases you can close the door typically.

Of course there’s always the possibility of long range forecasts to be incorrect. That never happens right? Geez talking about late December on Nov 30. Lol

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5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

It’s over. Tried to tell you guys this early on. 
 

Modeled good patterns don’t materialize or they are very transient. When you see talk of SSW and MJO phases you can close the door typically.

Of course there’s always the possibility of long range forecasts to be incorrect. That never happens right? Geez talking about late December on Nov 30. Lol

" Transient pattern " , the new 2020 weather buzz word. :P

Not to be confused with the visual 1 inch mean snowfall maps always posted last winter. cough cough .... :thumbsdown:

Paul Rodney I believe may have latched onto this pattern and the subsequent change later in the month of December to warmer. 

I always mention the 20th of December,  as that has been golden in terms of the change to warmer the last 3 years, and maybe longer. 

But, maybe we do a continued progression back to a Nino-ish pattern in January.  Again, we are in a new age of weather drivers, and as some here have mentioned, the West Pac / MJO and standing wave will all have a lot to say about the outcomes in Jan and Feb. 

Nice to at least see some influence here on the PV. Maybe a harbinger for January, or not. At least it is not 70 degrees after today for a while.  

 

 

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