WxUSAF Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good. -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good. -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like. Overrunning is money when done right. A wrapped up Miller A is great but so rare and precarious that it’s almost always threading a rusty needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 20 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good. -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like. Any -EPO. Really need to get rid of that Pac puke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 54 minutes ago, leo2000 said: Any -EPO. Really need to get rid of that Pac puke. The GEFS has completely given up on that idea for now, and the EPS was never into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: The GEFS has completely given up on that idea for now, and the EPS was never into it. I hope the GEFS at the end of its run (12z) wasn’t starting to move to a familiar pattern from last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good. -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like. You talking ensemble mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 29, 2020 Share Posted November 29, 2020 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The GEFS at the end of its run (12z) was starting to move to a familiar pattern from last winter. Looks more Nina-ish at h5.. but the cold is actually better in our source region around that time. Question is, where will it dump? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: After a couple days of pattern breakdown at the end of the EPS, the end of today’s 12z run still looks pretty good. -AO/-NAO and a ridge just off the west coast. Broad CONUS trough east of the Rockies. Looks overrrunning like. Been doing family holiday stuff and catching up on work and didn’t post but the other day when I glanced at the actual eps members it appeared to me the breakdown was more due to a significant but minority camp of solutions that re-established the Nina pattern and went crazy with a +NAO and conus ridge. That camp was washing out the other members that still had a more favorable look. I rarely have time to dig that deep anymore but the mean cam sometimes be misleading. That said I’m guarded about mid December due to hints the mjo wants to amplify near the MC. That could return is to the Nina puke pattern. What I’m interested in seeing is if that is transient or locks in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 3 hours ago, CAPE said: Looks more Nina-ish at h5.. but the cold is actually better in our source region around that time. Question is, where will it dump? That -35 is from Mongolia and headed to our area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 On 11/28/2020 at 1:21 PM, Wentzadelphia said: No one wants it to snow more than me. Trust me. I’ve storm chased snowstorms where I couldn’t afford it but went anyway. Hell I lost a job because of 2015 NE event . Ji will tell you if he recalls, but the 2001 bust sent me into a depression at 14 years old. I’m sick in the head when it comes to snow. Meant to respond yesterday: Dude, this right here? You are certainly not alone. I have had to weather similar psychological reactions to snow fails. I have been wanting to start a thread about the whole psychology of this...(tried but didn't get too many responses, lol). I'm not sure why we react the way we do, or how to dig ourselves out of the ditch (or stop ourselves from getting in there) when it happens. Shoot, I still just get a tad perturbed wben thinking about our more recent fails (like 12/8/18 or the miss in March of that year)...and it kinda piles on top of whatever isn't going right snow-wise. Ya tell yourself that this is such a tiny part of life and not worth the emotional energy...yet ya find yourself slipping, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 December is forecast to be much above normal temperature wise here in TX. So there will be a trough in the East supporting snow. That may become a semi permanent feature come January 2021.......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: That -35 is from Mongolia and headed to our area Its got DC right in its crosshairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 That -35 is from Mongolia and headed to our area Do you think we will hit-35 Howard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: That -35 is from Mongolia and headed to our area That temp gradient in northern Pakistan is amazing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, Ji said: 2 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: That -35 is from Mongolia and headed to our area Do you think we will hit-35 Howard? It’s gonna move northeast from WV through NC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Gfs gives us rain with 850 temperatures below zero! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Gfs gives us rain with 850 temperatures below zero! Build a 5000 ft house and hang out on your roof. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs gives us rain with 850 temperatures below zero! Thats the new normal. You can't get a cold column down to the surface in DC anymore. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 2 hours ago, Ji said: 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: That -35 is from Mongolia and headed to our area Do you think we will hit-35 Howard? It moderates tremendously but still quite cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Might get a shot of legit cold air around mid month with this look. AK trough muted, and cold air in central Canada decently recharged. Have to watch the western ridging as it appears to waning/retrograding some at this point- might be wrong, temporary, or the pattern could be evolving to one more typical of a Nina. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Might get a shot of legit cold air around mid month with this look. AK trough muted, and cold air in central Canada decently recharged. Have to watch the western ridging as it appears to waning/retrograding some at this point- might be wrong, temporary, or the pattern could be evolving to one more typical of a Nina. Agree with you here on the cold shot if this is correct. This looks like a transient cold shot though, looks like it’s about to turn into ugliness post mid-month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Next weekend looking dry now or is it transient dryness? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 59 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agree with you here on the cold shot if this is correct. This looks like a transient cold shot though, looks like it’s about to turn into ugliness post mid-month Yup. You can see the Pac puke lining up just in time for Christmas. After that it's probably lights out for the rest of the winter. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 It’s over. Tried to tell you guys this early on. Modeled good patterns don’t materialize or they are very transient. When you see talk of SSW and MJO phases you can close the door typically. Of course there’s always the possibility of long range forecasts to be incorrect. That never happens right? Geez talking about late December on Nov 30. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s over. Tried to tell you guys this early on. Modeled good patterns don’t materialize or they are very transient. When you see talk of SSW and MJO phases you can close the door typically. Of course there’s always the possibility of long range forecasts to be incorrect. That never happens right? Geez talking about late December on Nov 30. Lol " Transient pattern " , the new 2020 weather buzz word. Not to be confused with the visual 1 inch mean snowfall maps always posted last winter. cough cough .... Paul Rodney I believe may have latched onto this pattern and the subsequent change later in the month of December to warmer. I always mention the 20th of December, as that has been golden in terms of the change to warmer the last 3 years, and maybe longer. But, maybe we do a continued progression back to a Nino-ish pattern in January. Again, we are in a new age of weather drivers, and as some here have mentioned, the West Pac / MJO and standing wave will all have a lot to say about the outcomes in Jan and Feb. Nice to at least see some influence here on the PV. Maybe a harbinger for January, or not. At least it is not 70 degrees after today for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 31 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. You can see the Pac puke lining up just in time for Christmas. After that it's probably lights out for the rest of the winter. @WxWatcher007.....you better get the Panic Room ready. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 As mentioned above, the change to warmer at Christmas and beyond is rather clear. Just like clockwork again. It is remarkable the change to warmer in the East near the winter solstice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: @WxWatcher007.....you better get the Panic Room ready. More like the padded room for some of these guys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 I knew that these "good looks" were merely another mirage yet again and we enter another sucky winter with barely any snow. But then again it's a moderate La Nina so I am not surprised. Let the reaping begin 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 30, 2020 Share Posted November 30, 2020 Of course we don’t really know what will happen Dec 25th. Could be 70 or 20. Let’s just let it play out before we panic and cancel what hasn’t happened or may never happen. -Senior Panic Researcher/Panic Room Janitorial Staff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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