Chris78 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts That Hopkins misses every time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 32 minutes ago, Ji said: 40 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Lots of encouraging stuff today but we need something to track asap. It feels like we are driving down the field on every drive but we end up settling for 52 yard field goal attempts 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Too bad we’re way more Billy Cundiff than Justin Tucker when it comes to hitting on long shot snow chances. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Too bad we’re way more Billy Cundiff than Justin Tucker when it comes to hitting on long shot snow chances. That name is never to be mentioned. I had nightmares for a couple days when billy cundiff missed that FG. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: That name is never to be mentioned. I had nightmares for a couple days when billy cundiff missed that FG. I didn’t sleep for like 60 straight hours 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I didn’t sleep for like 60 straight hours It was hideous. I try not to hate, but man that was tough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 You Baltimore kids are cute talking about kicker woes in big situations 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: You Baltimore kids are cute talking about kicker woes in big situations Always good not to forget what came before. Or some shit like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Always good not to forget what came before. Or some shit like that. Man that Blair Walsh miss was from like 2 ft to beat Seattle in the playoffs, then the Gary Anderson miss against the Falcons to go to the superbowl….gah!!! I hate kickers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 45 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: That name is never to be mentioned. I had nightmares for a couple days when billy cundiff missed that FG. 27 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I didn’t sleep for like 60 straight hours 25 minutes ago, CAPE said: It was hideous. I try not to hate, but man that was tough. Ya know, the only thing that took away the sting of that loss was the Superbowl we won the next year. Much more memorable story...so I can't be upset at what happened the year before anymore--because I daresay that helped set things up the greatness that would follow the next year! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Overall probability is reassuring that the Greenland blocking regime is indeed real. @SimonLeeWx Tropospheric-led but then subsequently likely reinforced by the weakened stratospheric vortex, the GEFS 35-day shows an unusually strong signal for the Arctic High regime (Greenland blocking) to dominate the North American regime space over the coming few weeks. 11:12 AM · Dec 23, 2020·Twitter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, frd said: Overall probability is reassuring that the Greenland blocking regime is indeed real. @SimonLeeWx Tropospheric-led but then subsequently likely reinforced by the weakened stratospheric vortex, the GEFS 35-day shows an unusually strong signal for the Arctic High regime (Greenland blocking) to dominate the North American regime space over the coming few weeks. 11:12 AM · Dec 23, 2020·Twitter you can always wait and see if it happens, the reliance on guidance gets a bit overwhelming, don't you think sir?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 x more likely. Good odds. @SimonLeeWx Replying to @SimonLeeWx The Arctic High regime is ~7x more likely to occur if the lower-strat vortex is weak than strong (https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL085592…) - and that's certainly consistent with this forecast. Suggests that the accuracy of the stratospheric forecast may be important here for the regime forecast. Wintertime North American Weather Regimes and the Arctic Stratospheric Polar Vortex agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, howrdcounty snow said: you can always wait and see if it happens, the reliance on guidance gets a bit overwhelming, don't you think sir?? This is a long range thread ? Gathering unique, useful data and weighing it for long range outcomes is the fun part of long range forecasting. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 minutes ago, frd said: This is a long range thread ? Gathering unique, useful data and weighing it for long range outcomes is the fun part of long range forecasting. yes partially agree but considering the last storm, the long range proved in accurrate, so in my view LR forecasting doesn't always pan out, yes that's weather forecasting, but thee are other factors to consider which I won't touch. TYVM for your responses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 18z run must be good if we are comparing field goal kickers and long range tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, Dabuckeyes said: 18z run must be good if we are comparing field goal kickers and long range tweets Actually looks closer to a CAD event for NYE. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 7 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: yes partially agree but considering the last storm, the long range proved in accurrate, so in my view LR forecasting doesn't always pan out, yes that's weather forecasting, but thee are other factors to consider which I won't touch. TYVM for your responses. I'm not sure about the statement that the long range was "inaccurate". The storm signal was there for like 10 days. The existence and approximate location were never in doubt. Yeah there was a time where it looked like DC was going to good snow, and that didn't happen but that was corrected. The fact that we knew about the storm at all from 10 days out is a miracle of modern science. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: Man that Blair Walsh miss was from like 2 ft to beat Seattle in the playoffs, then the Gary Anderson miss against the Falcons to go to the superbowl….gah!!! I hate kickers The Anderson miss is the stuff of Vikings legend. It’s a history of Viking football in a nutshell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs has a cluster of CAD believers NYE . Sometimes these CAD events get better as we near . Front end thumpin would be real nice Speed up that s/w or bring it out in pieces with that cold high up top and we’re in the game. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually looks closer to a CAD event for NYE. Yeah that storm is far from any type of certainty IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anyweather Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 19 minutes ago, cbmclean said: I'm not sure about the statement that the long range was "inaccurate". The storm signal was there for like 10 days. The existence and approximate location were never in doubt. Yeah there was a time where it looked like DC was going to good snow, and that didn't happen but that was corrected. The fact that we knew about the storm at all from 10 days out is a miracle of modern science. I agree with this. I'm of the age where I remember that all you could get was a 3 day forecast. It was a BIG DEAL when they started to do 5 day forecasts! Yeah, long range is useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: The Anderson miss is the stuff of Vikings legend. It’s a history of Viking football in a nutshell Yeah, it robbed Randall of a trip to the Super Bowl and a MVP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 23, 2020 Share Posted December 23, 2020 2 hours ago, cbmclean said: Honest question, what kind of "in-house" model could possibly be of use in serious forecasting? The big boys all run on huge government supercomputers. How could a homebrew model even have a chance. I'm not trying to criticize, just honestly curious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 57 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Actually looks closer to a CAD event for NYE. Sooooo 2020 to end on a catastrophic ice storm . If it happens you will forever be associated with it lol. 36 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs has a cluster of CAD believers NYE . Sometimes these CAD events get better as we near . Front end thumpin would be real nice Best example of this and a good bust in some places was Feb 2015 when from 72 hours it looked like a rain storm and trended south so much that our area got 6-12” of snow despite a surface track to our NW. but that has an Arctic high with sub 0 temps in front of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gefs has a cluster of CAD believers NYE . Sometimes these CAD events get better as we near . Front end thumpin would be real nice We know @ravensrule likes it in the back end. Uhhhhh thank you very much. Don’t forget to tip your waiters and waitresses. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 Maybe a big dog somewhere out there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 2 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: Maybe a big dog somewhere out there? I would rather have frequent events 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Interesting, do any of those terms mean anything to you? I am only vaguely familiar with NWP. I was under the impression that it involves lots of non-linear partial differential equations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 24, 2020 Share Posted December 24, 2020 5 hours ago, Scraff said: We know @ravensrule likes it in the back end. Uhhhhh thank you very much. Don’t forget to tip your waiters and waitresses. I take it anyway I can get it. I’m not picky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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