jaydreb Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yea something it’s trended towards today...there are 2 systems in close proximity crashing into the west next week. Earlier runs had a bit more space and the initial wave ejected. The 2nd dug in the SW and was eventually a threat around Jan 3-5. This run (and EPS supports) there isn’t much space and the lead wave washes out and most of the energy gets absorbed into the second which amplified the trough way too much to our west. EPS has a good look around day 11-13 fWIW I saw that but why can’t we seem to get low heights in the 50/50 area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Yea something it’s trended towards today...there are 2 systems in close proximity crashing into the west next week. Earlier runs had a bit more space and the initial wave ejected. The 2nd dug in the SW and was eventually a threat around Jan 3-5. This run (and EPS supports) there isn’t much space and the lead wave washes out and most of the energy gets absorbed into the second which amplified the trough way too much to our west. EPS has a good look around day 11-13 fWIW Troughs dumping too far west and shortwaves amplifying too soon/west is a tendency during Ninas correct? I think this is what we are going to be battling as we try to time up a storm with a favorable NA. Hopefully we can get a bit of a PNA ridge at just the right time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 There are definitely 2 camps in the Eps. Cutter and more southern track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 56 minutes ago, Ji said: your not suppose to have a SE ridge when there is a Southern -Western NAO block and a 50 50 low The 1025 off the mid Atlantic will not materialize Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 18 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I saw that but why can’t we seem to get low heights in the 50/50 area? Look where the NA ridge is located. Cant have a high and a low in the same place. Ideally we want the +heights focused further NW. There are hints of that towards the end of the ens runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are definitely 2 camps in the Eps. Cutter and more southern track. For the ~31st-1st threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 its happening.gif 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: For the ~31st-1st threat? Hard to tell it all gets mixed with timing issues between the waves. Track for the period after looks good but it’s all rainy solutions on the eps. Disappointing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 54 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You know once the Nina fades and the PAC lag starts to become workable we are going to lose the -NAM right? Unlikely. You would need the Niña to remain strong in all likelihood to lose the Atlantic. There are very few if any cases since 1950 where December had a solid AO/NAO that were negative where there wasn’t another long duration negative stretch in January or February without some sort of decent La Niña influence. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: its happening.gif Must be the solar min. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: For the ~31st-1st threat? Right - Jan 31st 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Must be the solar min. Hey buddy that's my line! (and I'm ridin' that horse as far it goes too, lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How many inches of u-wind is a a MECS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 i see every thing lining up! except for the snow and cold! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Hard to tell it all gets mixed with timing issues between the waves. Track for the period after looks good but it’s all rainy solutions on the eps. Disappointing i hope this isnt the kind of winter where JB wins at 500MB but loses at the surface like he likes to claim on failed winters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: i hope this isnt the kind of winter where JB wins at 500MB but loses at the surface like he likes to claim on failed winters That was always BS. We are still suffering from that fall pattern though. Left us void of a domestic cold air source. Sometimes in that situation blocking takes a while to pay off. Seriously go back end look at the January 2016 thread. We had good blocking for a while before that storm and I remember this exact same conversation. My guess is if the PV gets obliterated and we get a -AO for a significant portion of winter we will do ok. Maybe better then ok. Probably not good enough to make you happy though. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, Ji said: i see every thing lining up! except for the snow and cold! Yes that’s true. It’s like the perfect steak dinner...sorry wait we are out of steak but we do have head cheese. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 23 minutes ago, Ji said: i see every thing lining up! except for the snow and cold! Jesus.. you get in my nerves, but you're always right lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 HH trying to do something with a southern wave and cold pressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 @Ji Not a cutter. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Digital snow baby! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 NS beating down heights out ahead of it...I thought that was going to be our 96 storm for a few frames. lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 This is an h5 look that will get it done for a moderate snowstorm. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 So we are out to January now? The storm after the storm after the storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, poolz1 said: NS beating down heights out ahead of it...I thought that was going to be our 96 storm for a few frames. lol I like it! Plenty of time for us to trend towards “The Big 96er”. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 So we are out to January now? The storm after the storm after the storm? As long as we are tracking something in late December. We probably won't see anymore snow in 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: So we are out to January now? The storm after the storm after the storm? This is really nothing new going with the trends on the means. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Don't panic Ji!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: 3 minutes ago, osfan24 said: So we are out to January now? The storm after the storm after the storm? As long as we are tracking something in late December. We probably won't see anymore snow in 2020 Good thing everyone on here got snow last week.....oh wait 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Blocking persisting throughout the run. It’s only a matter of time until digital snow appears 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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