CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 The window for something looks to begin after the late month warm Miller B garbage event. The GFS will do what the GFS does with shortwaves coming east under a block at range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 new thread since LR takes us into January? I’d ask C.A.P.E. to start it but he’s gone. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Good gfs run. It’s catching on. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 33 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s there. Just not in the best place for us. Maybe I’m wrong but I never thought it was established enough yet for that first wave after Xmas. Its the waves after that that interest me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: new thread since LR takes us into January? I’d ask C.A.P.E. to start it but he’s gone. Onto a new CAPE era, bring us luck please 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe I’m wrong but I never thought it was established enough yet for that first wave after Xmas. Its the waves after that that interest me. I concur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe I’m wrong but I never thought it was established enough yet for that first wave after Xmas. Its the waves after that that interest me. Hopefully, I get a new coffee maker for Christmas along with an extensive variety of coffees to fuel the late nights of tracking in Jan. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Good gfs run. It’s catching on. Hopefully it's got the right idea in the long range. 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Hopefully it's got the right idea in the long range. The long range GFS matches the new CFS for Jan. 2021 , which according to the date today of the 22 nd should be entering its period of higher verification for the next 30 day period. I like ! We track ! @psuhoffman you think ridge bridge way out there possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Maybe I’m wrong but I never thought it was established enough yet for that first wave after Xmas. Its the waves after that that interest me. 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: I concur. Seems like the storm around New Years should be a chance for us. GEFS and EPS do not seem enthused though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 13 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Hopefully it's got the right idea in the long range. I guess those were ok storms 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Seems like the storm around New Years should be a chance for us. GEFS and EPS do not seem enthused though. CMC never gets it here. For the second run it gets to TX then loops for 4 days blocked from moving east at all. From what I’ve seen the ensembles are all over and don’t key on anything. A lot of shred factory dry members. Some miller b screw jobs. A few big hits sprinkled in. Some misses to the south. Shotgun spread so no signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Isn't there a correlation of Mongolian highs and cold/wet conditions on the eastern CONUS? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I guess those were ok storms So...essentially just like 1996 then!! That'll never get old. Or will it??? (***No dead equines were harmed by this comment!) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 35 minutes ago, WVclimo said: Hopefully it's got the right idea in the long range. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 five-sigma corresponds to about 1 in 3.5 million assuming a normal distribution So if we hear discussion of another 4 or 5 sigma event we should consider the source and/or unfollow Kayleigh McEnany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How’s the Christmas blizzard looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: five-sigma corresponds to about 1 in 3.5 million assuming a normal distribution So if we hear discussion of another 4 or 5 sigma event we should consider the source and/or unfollow Kayleigh McEnany This is different. The scale on that map Eric Webber posted is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: How’s the Christmas blizzard looking? Possible scattered flurries/ isolated flizzard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Hows the Biblical Pattern DT was talking about looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 54 minutes ago, frd said: you think ridge bridge way out there possible. Getting closer... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 the GFS maybe the biggest trainwreck i have seen since the trainwreck of last winter 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, pasnownut said: Getting closer... I hope “getting closer” = a bomb that can slow crawl from the OBX straight towards the benchmark. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Scraff said: I hope “getting closer” = a bomb that can slow crawl from the OBX straight towards the benchmark. wrt to the ridge bridge, one can see source region getting closer to vodka kinda cold, and not just run of the mill arctic stuff. Like I said, closer, but not there yet (if it does materialize is also a stretch), but no doubt verbatim, cold will not be an issue if this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 it has no snow for us in 16 days during the peak of our winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, Scraff said: I hope “getting closer” = a bomb that can slow crawl from the OBX straight towards the benchmark. im sure that 50/50 high will help 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 euro seems like it has as storm though--lets see if slides south under the block Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Euro might be cooking something up...low in OK on the 30th. The post-Christmas GL cutter acting as a bit of a 50/50. Let’s see what it does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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