osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks... I am going to straight up drop kick the first person who complains if we get a 6-10" snowstorm in the 95 corridor. It's a Nina. Expectations!!! Poor Ji. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I got 20” in either 14 or 15. Can’t remember. Wasn’t at least one of those a weak Nina? Pretty sure it was the Valentine's Day storm in 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks... I am going to straight up drop kick the first person who complains if we get a 6-10" snowstorm in the 95 corridor. It's a Nina. Expectations!!! But 95-96!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 It's been a long time since we had a +500dm -NAO (March 2018 maybe). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks... I am going to straight up drop kick the first person who complains if we get a 6-10" snowstorm in the 95 corridor. It's a Nina. Expectations!!! Maybe we can get 2 or 3 of them 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 5 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I got 20” in either 14 or 15. Can’t remember. Wasn’t at least one of those a weak Nina? It was the Feb 12-13, 2014 event. Cool Neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: But 95-96!! Hahaha! Well, "best pattern since '96" might surpass "transient" as the most over-used word/phrase for this winter!! 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 BTW, here's the ONI data since 1950 for those curious. https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 22 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah ha...my mom has told me about this, and I was about to mention it as a possible exception...I was born two days before that (Dec 24th), and she tells me she stayed in the hospital an extra day because of it, lol (so literally my first time outside there was snow on the ground! ) Where did you look up that record? Or did you just happen to remember? Those were from memory. But if you really want to spend some time, this site has climate records from thousands of stations in the US: Utah MAPS - Utah Climate Center (usu.edu) 1. find a station (you can enter a town and a map will show you the stations on record) 2. customize your report (make sure to select English, unless you want the metric conversion) 3. download an Excel file (they will ask for an email, but reports are generated quickly.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 We had our chance, sun angle issues start next week... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 31 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I got 20” in either 14 or 15. Can’t remember. Wasn’t at least one of those a weak Nina? No 14 was neutral 15 was weak Nino 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: We had our chance, sun angle issues start next week... Or as Bob Chill once called it...the dumb angle, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Btw there is a chance (which is typical) we are rushing this. It’s possible we get one of these waves in the next 13 days to hit...but it’s also true we usually do better as blocking regimes relax or break down. The guidance (all 3 majors) are building the -AO/NAO and even improving the pac some (which is linked) into early January. And given the evidence right now there is no reason to think it’s a fantasy. The AO and NAO have not been hostile this year. There is a chance our best window comes in January. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George BM Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: No 14 was neutral 15 was weak Nino Fixed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Close... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Love the EPSlook New Year’s Eve/Day. Notice the cad signature on the eps this far out at 234-240 hours 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Close... I would say 240hrs is pretty damn close. Trough axis is a little farther west, but otherwise pretty good match. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I would say 240hrs is pretty damn close. Trough axis is a little farther west, but otherwise pretty good match. Yes, it’s pretty good, workable at least, straight through. I just picked one panel. It’s also been backing off on the AK trough the last few runs which would help. It also, like the GEFS and GEPS, is retrograding the NAO block more and more into January. If the looks the globals are teasing are correct we should snow somewhere in the next 2-3 weeks. Problem is way too many SWs in the flow to pick out any one threat as THE ONE yet. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 @WxUSAF Frankly you could pick any panel from day 5-15 and it’s a look we would have killed for at anytime last year! 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes, it’s pretty good, workable at least, straight through. I just picked one panel. It’s also been backing off on the AK trough the last few runs which would help. It also, like the GEFS and GEPS, is retrograding the NAO block more and more into January. If the looks the globals are teasing are correct we should snow somewhere in the next 2-3 weeks. Problem is way too many SWs in the flow to pick out any one threat as THE ONE yet. Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least. Oh boy, that is music to my ears.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 35 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Speaking of January, 12z EPS gets VERY close to a 10mb wind reversal in the Strat just after New Years, and apparently the latest Euro monthly keeps things rockin' through most of January at least. There is EVERY indication this will be a -AO winter. 6 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 A player for sure ....maybe Jan 3 rd to the 14 th. Eric Webb @webberweather The 12z full res ECMWF is going w/ absolute min temps as low as -60F in southern Russia as a 1069 hPa sfc high descends into Mongolia. Oof 2:03 PM · Dec 21, 2020·Twitter Web App 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 45 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes, it’s pretty good, workable at least, straight through. I just picked one panel. It’s also been backing off on the AK trough the last few runs which would help. It also, like the GEFS and GEPS, is retrograding the NAO block more and more into January. If the looks the globals are teasing are correct we should snow somewhere in the next 2-3 weeks. Problem is way too many SWs in the flow to pick out any one threat as THE ONE yet. Some may be wondering why the snowfall mean is pretty standard climo given AO/NAO domain and IMO, this may be the reason...so many s/ws so models may be having a hard time keying in on which one may be the biggest threat. Given the shtty looks we endured all winter last year, its nice to see NAM help which looks to have serious staying power. The potential is there and thats all we can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Some may be wondering why the snowfall mean is pretty standard climo given AO/NAO domain and IMO, this may be the reason...so many s/ws so models may be having a hard time keying in on which one may be the biggest threat. Given the shtty looks we endured all winter last year, its nice to see NAM help which looks to have serious staying power. The potential is there and thats all we can ask for at this point. This kind of sums it up....no idea which one could be the 1. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Some may be wondering why the snowfall mean is pretty standard climo given AO/NAO domain and IMO, this may be the reason...so many s/ws so models may be having a hard time keying in on which one may be the biggest threat. Given the shtty looks we endured all winter last year, its nice to see NAM help which looks to have serious staying power. The potential is there and thats all we can ask for at this point. I think that’s part of it. I also think guidance has been running too warm in general in the long range. The last 7 days was supposed to be a torch from long range. Guidance has a lot of good track rain storms in the 7-15 day period. It’s not like the snow mean is super high north of us. Most of that up there is from lake effect and a clipper or two. The storm track looks good. I have a feeling it will trend colder if the storm track is across the south. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There is EVERY indication this will be a -AO winter. Wow! After what we had to deal with last winter...this is music to all of our ears! What an awesome 180 from the news ya had to deliver a year ago, lol Yes, I'm sure you'll say nothing is ever automatic...but just knowing that our snow chances improve--and with something that has been so elusive (the -AO) is very encouraging! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I don't put much stock in the weeklies, but looking a week or so beyond the run they initialize on gives us a rough idea of how things will roll forward. Mid Jan still has a favorable HL look on today's edition. Pretty much a continuation of what we are seeing on the LR means. The -NAO is more west based from day 15 forward to this timeframe. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I Don't put much stock in the weeklies, but looking a week or so beyond the run they initialize on gives us a rough idea of how things will roll forward. Mid Jan still has a favorable HL look on today's edition. Pretty much a continuation of what we are seeing on the LR means. The -NAO is more west based from day 15 forward. to this timeframe. It looks like we might finally time up a pretty good pattern with our prime snow climo window. It’s been forever since we did that. I’m trying to be guarded. And expectations should be kept realistic. It is still a Nina. We’ve had -AO/NAO Nina’s before where we did ok but not GREAT. If 1996 happens awesome but I’d set the bar more realistically. Let’s just get a warning event or two into the urban corridor then sprinkle in some more minor snows here or there. Imo that’s a realistic bar if we get an extended -NAM state during prime climo. ETA: start to see signs the WPO vortex wants to anchor further west and allow a pna ridge or if the PV really gets obliterated and we see indications the AO will tank through to spring and that’s when we might start to dream BIGGER...for now in ecstatic simply to see real signs we should avoid a total dud this year. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Missing Bob again. Wish he would come back 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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