anotherman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, mattie g said: Who's comparing everything to 1996? DT posted about the pattern reminding him of '96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 GFS is a little sharper with the trough and slightly slower with the advancement of the cold air. Not what you want to see if you are rooting for some snowflakes on Christmas Eve night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs further south with the post Xmas energy . Actually a west ridge this run as well forming at 168 And a low moving from Dubuque to Cincinnati and then reforming off Va Beach. Never seen that before lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs further south with the post Xmas energy . Actually a west ridge this run as well forming at 168 The primary comes across too far north. It’s that way across all guidance. Unless that changes (it could) it’s inevitably a miller b screw job. We could eeek out some snow but it’s the setup where we watch north of us cash in. However, a bombing system the 28 helps the setup after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: And a low moving from Dubuque to Cincinnati and then reforming off Va Beach. Never seen that before lol It happens in extreme blocking. I’ve seen analogs like that. But it’s usually a fail for our area. Can’t say 100% sometimes crazy stuff happens but we want a the primary to be bottoming out at our latitude or lower to have a better chance. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Remember last weeks storm looked like a Miller B at range. Was taking the primary through the Midwest with a transfer to Norfolk area. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Is this where someone says "Right where we want it for right now"...? Is that on the weenie bingo sheet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Improved over the last 2 runs . Primary further south . West ridging is new . Curious to see the 50/50 local as we near . Still oodles of time 7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Remember last weeks storm looked like a Miller B at range. Was taking the primary through the Midwest with a transfer to Norfolk area. Yes that could change but I think we need to see it move that way in the next 24 hours. We’re getting to that range where the globals have been picking up on the general synoptic setups. We’re right at the lead time where the primary shifted south on guidance opening up the opportunity last week. I’m not sold on any solution yet. But it looks like there are possibly 4 waves between Dec 28-Jan 5 with blocking setup. They will all affect one another. Spacing and if they amplify into the 50/50 space. I don’t have a strong feel for how the specifics play out but I do think we would be incredibly unlucky to come out of that period without one decent snowfall. We can pick on the minor imperfections but fact is the look is plenty good enough to snow. Excellent AO/NAO. Strong STJ. Mediocre PAC. That should be good enough to get some snow imo. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Day 10 gfs is actually a pretty good setup. It holding is another matter though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: Day 10 gfs is actually a pretty good setup. It holding is another matter though. That arrow should be more ENE but you get the idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Yes that could change but I think we need to see it move that way in the next 24 hours. We’re getting to that range where the globals have been picking up on the general synoptic setups. We’re right at the lead time where the primary shifted south on guidance opening up the opportunity last week. I’m not sold on any solution yet. But it looks like there are possibly 4 waves between Dec 28-Jan 5 with blocking setup. They will all affect one another. Spacing and if they amplify into the 50/50 space. I don’t have a strong feel for how the specifics play out but I do think we would be incredibly unlucky to come out of that period without one decent snowfall. We can pick on the minor imperfections but fact is the look is plenty good enough to snow. Excellent AO/NAO. Strong STJ. Mediocre PAC. That should be good enough to get some snow imo. Very true, and thanks for pointing this out. It's definitely one of the better setups we've had in some time it seems (though I won't say "since '96" or any other particular year, hahaha!). It will be complicated, the interaction of the various waves during that period, and not necessarily "ideal" (whatever that might be). So yeah, hopefully we'll come out of that time frame with at least one decent snow and avoid the incredible bad luck of getting shut out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Improved over the last 2 runs . Primary further south . West ridging is new . Curious to see the 50/50 local as we near . Still oodles of time SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES. Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect. 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: That arrow should be more ENE but you get the idea. System stays weaker this run because the jet-streak upstream is weaker and there is not as much curvature. 6z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Look at the one behind it Never mind lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 CMC with a good look at the end of the run... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 More interested in the second event after Xmas. Don’t like where the HP is setup for the first redeveloping clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, poolz1 said: CMC with a good look at the end of the run... Yeah that actually should perk up southeast forum interests. Kind of have a detached southern branch with plenty of cold air 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES. Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect. regardless of what the snowfall totals say.. thats a weenie run in my book.. I will take my chances with anyone of those... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, anotherman said: DT posted about the pattern reminding him of '96. There is nothing wrong with comparing the upcoming pattern to the HECs years... nothing wrong with it all.. It is frustrating when people get sarcastic about it.. and mock people who make those comparisons.. We are just trying to have some fun and fantasize about snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 CMC, GFS, EURO all push that first low after Christmas farther south at 12Z compared to last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 That post-Christmas look is what you want with the shortwave parade being depicted. Storms forced underneath with high frequency. It would be tough to get anything north of 40N with a storm track. There might be a sneaky event in there with so many pulses running around. 100% guarantee that not all shortwaves for the extended are even modeled either. I like the chances of some kind of winter precip with that 5H setup. 12 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: SO. MANY. SHORTWAVES. Going to be a volatile forecast post-Xmas I expect. "volatile", "complicated" Aren't those adjectives that tend to not work out so well for Mid-atlantic area? Or is it more of the situation where if we keep getting lots of chances, one of them is bound to work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, gopper said: "volatile", "complicated" Aren't those adjectives that tend to not work out so well for Mid-atlantic area? Or is it more of the situation where if we keep getting lots of chances, one of them is bound to work out? Gotta be on the playing field to have a chance ... it's a simple law of percentages: more chances, higher probability that something might pop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, poolz1 said: CMC with a good look at the end of the run... Kind of knit picking here, but again, that blocking (as modeled) is too far east for us to get the amplification we need. It will change though so that’s good lol eta: and also close to a 50/50 but it’s not connected. Partly due to the position of blocking in East-Greenland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dabuckeyes Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Still in the game for Christmas, I suppose 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, Dabuckeyes said: Still in the game for Christmas, I suppose I like how there are about 6 members with 4"+ for DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with a white Christmas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I know its not perfect, but there will be a lot of tracking into Jan. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 9 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro still wants absolutely nothing to do with a white Christmas Bah 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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