csnavywx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Regardless of the post-frontal stuff (which I find it hard to get excited about -- post-frontal setups rarely produce much), those soundings and the position of the cold pool aloft look somewhat favorable for snow showers on Christmas Day proper. Very cold temps aloft. Might be enough weak surface-based instability to kick off some popcorn snow showers ahead of the mid-level vort. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 gm csnavywx happy holidays to you and your family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Might be a snow storm on the GFS.. looks locked and loaded at 192... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Gfs finally has dt woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 what hr or hrs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, howrdcounty snow said: what hr or hrs?? Its ten days away.. so its complete fantasy... but per the upper air pattern at day 7.. and the energy rolling in the west coast on day 5.. I would say that there is definitely potential.. lets see what the ensembles show.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 tyvm for analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just now, howrdcounty snow said: tyvm for analysis lol.. I dont know what I am doing.. but yeah it looks like it might snow in the next week or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I can read a map to a certain point but appreciate most others input on subtles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: I can read a map to a certain point but appreciate most others input on subtles If you are new you should check this out. It is super helpful! I recommend reading through the thread above and then going to tropical tidbits and filtering for Northern Hemisphere as the region and choose 500 MB height anomaly for the plots.. then let us know which one of @psuhoffman looks the GFS is showing in the long range.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs finally has dt woof Pretty classic setup verbatim. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40westwx said: If you are new you should check this out. It is super helpful! yes am familiar,iar with this info, have been around a while and have partly read the famous northeast snowstorm book by the 2 big weather experts, Paul kocin and the other phd in meteorology, plus have lived thru some biggies like blizzard of 66, 79,88, and some big misses like 66 was supposed to be but wasn't. etc. Thanks for your effort. I was fortunate to sit beside mr kocin at one of the amax meetings at BWI several years ago, and talked to ustedtobe at same conference. His education in physics was very remarkable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Impressive London & Southeast @TheSnowDreamer *Huge* heat flux now being modelled by ECM goodnight vienna stratospheric polar vortex. 3:16 AM · Dec 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said: yes am familiar,iar with this info, have been around a while and have partly read the famous northeast snowstorm book by the 2 big weather experts, Paul kocin and the other phd in meteorology, plus have lived thru some biggies like blizzard of 66, 79,88, and some big misses like 66 was supposed to be but wasn't. etc. Thanks for your effort. I was fortunate to sit beside mr kocin at one of the amax meetings at BWI several years ago, and talked to ustedtobe at same conference. His education in physics was very remarkable. I would have liked to have been at that meeting.. but seriously the GFS is showing some text book stuff i the long range... today might be a really fun day around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 its good to post to you, tyvm, good ideas and observations, yes the conversations were excellent, I enjoyed listening and asking questions to 2 such learned men. and the conferences were excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 hour ago, csnavywx said: Regardless of the post-frontal stuff (which I find it hard to get excited about -- post-frontal setups rarely produce much), those soundings and the position of the cold pool aloft look somewhat favorable for snow showers on Christmas Day proper. Very cold temps aloft. Might be enough weak surface-based instability to kick off some popcorn snow showers ahead of the mid-level vort. Yeah, I think this might be the better chance for Xmas flakes. Hard to give the post-frontal snow a ton of credence when the GFS is on an island at D4... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 43 minutes ago, Ji said: Gfs finally has dt woof Euro was really close D8-9. Has this weird frontal timing so it's rain for everyone, but just need to time the cold air a little more like the GFS or GGEM. Lots of chances post-Xmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro was really close D8-9. Has this weird frontal timing so it's rain for everyone, but just need to time the cold air a little more like the GFS or GGEM. Lots of chances post-Xmas. EPS looked better timing-wise, so that's encouraging at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 30 minutes ago, CAPE said: Pretty classic setup verbatim. Best since ‘96 2 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 26 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Best since ‘96 Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too? I can’t tell if this is continuing the joke or if you missed rhe pages of digression yesterday... it works either way actually. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The consistency and the depth portrayed regarding the - AO and the - NAO for the rest of this month and the first week of January are really stunning. Added to this is the ongoing warming up top and you have to really wonder what we may achieve at the lowest point of the - AO phase. This is pretty crazy looking. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 20 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too? You late bro. And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: If it obliterates my healthy snowpack only to replace it with a fraction that’s not exactly a win. I’d rather simply avoid the 12 hour torch and keep my current snow lol. But for those not with snow OTG I can see the excitement. I saw the snowpack up your way on Saturday when I was in Hampstead. Really nice start to the season up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: You late bro. And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing. At this point it is not DT hype.. its kinda GFS and Euro/ good pattern.. there are a lot of chances hype.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 15 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I can’t tell if this is continuing the joke or if you missed rhe pages of digression yesterday... it works either way actually. New target for Leesburgtownville? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, H2O said: New target for Leesburgtownville? That's Leesbykesville 20 to you kind sir 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 37 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Wasnt 2010 wall to wall good pattern too? Terrible. Got lucky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 And we were all thinking it would be worse. Glad the potential is there, and some have already taken advantage of it! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 17 minutes ago, CAPE said: You late bro. And can we let the DT hype talk go now? He took his ball and went home. Let him do his thing. You aren’t new here. We never let anything go. There’s still stuff throw out here from 10 years ago. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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