osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 12:19 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok. So that’s your opinion. DT has his. His are backed with credentials. What are yours? Expand Facts? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 12:21 AM, osfan24 said: Facts? Expand Which are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 12:56 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Which are? Expand 2010 produced back-to-back HECS. I guess we can circle back to this convo after our back-to-back HECS in early January. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Pattern recognition and actual outcomes are two different things. The bickering over DT comments is ridiculous. The pattern looks favorable for potential winter weather. Stick with that and let's see it play out. Please stop the madness. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 @osfan24 you ok bro? Always bitching these days... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 1:13 AM, midatlanticweather said: Pattern recognition and actual outcomes are two different things. The bickering over DT comments is ridiculous. The pattern looks favorable for potential winter weather. Stick with that and let's see it play out. Please stop the madness. Expand Thank you. Spot on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 1:43 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Thank you. Spot on. Expand Agreed. Maybe next time he should say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 GFS slower with the front. Not as happy as the HH run but verbatim would be some flakes, better for favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The @CAPE Xmas miracle still lives! A quick 1-2”(clown maps) snow blast I’m sure would be just fine with everyone. GFS still has it in some weird way, but we take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 4:03 AM, Scraff said: The @CAPE Xmas miracle still lives! A quick 1-2”(clown maps) snow blast I’m sure would be just fine with everyone. GFS still has it in some weird way, but we take... Expand The 0z GEFS supports the OP. Not as good as 18z but most of the members get some flakes into the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 4:03 AM, Scraff said: The @CAPE Xmas miracle still lives! A quick 1-2”(clown maps) snow blast I’m sure would be just fine with everyone. GFS still has it in some weird way, but we take... Expand If it obliterates my healthy snowpack only to replace it with a fraction that’s not exactly a win. I’d rather simply avoid the 12 hour torch and keep my current snow lol. But for those not with snow OTG I can see the excitement. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 4:44 AM, jaydreb said: The 0z GEFS supports the OP. Not as good as 18z but most of the members get some flakes into the area. Expand 00z GEFS Ensemble mean looks like 3 inches at DCA... must be a few members skewing the mean I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 4:52 AM, yoda said: 00z GEFS Ensemble mean looks like 3 inches at DCA... must be a few members skewing the mean I guess Expand Yeah. It was a little better at 18z. Anyway here are the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Both the GEFS and EPS have more of a west based -NAO in the LR. The overall pattern looks favorable, but need to keep an eye on the NE PAC trough. Really want that feature to stay back over the Aleutians. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Regardless of the post-frontal stuff (which I find it hard to get excited about -- post-frontal setups rarely produce much), those soundings and the position of the cold pool aloft look somewhat favorable for snow showers on Christmas Day proper. Very cold temps aloft. Might be enough weak surface-based instability to kick off some popcorn snow showers ahead of the mid-level vort. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 gm csnavywx happy holidays to you and your family Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Might be a snow storm on the GFS.. looks locked and loaded at 192... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Gfs finally has dt woof 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 what hr or hrs?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 10:46 AM, howrdcounty snow said: what hr or hrs?? Expand Its ten days away.. so its complete fantasy... but per the upper air pattern at day 7.. and the energy rolling in the west coast on day 5.. I would say that there is definitely potential.. lets see what the ensembles show.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 tyvm for analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 10:50 AM, howrdcounty snow said: tyvm for analysis Expand lol.. I dont know what I am doing.. but yeah it looks like it might snow in the next week or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 I can read a map to a certain point but appreciate most others input on subtles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 10:54 AM, howrdcounty snow said: I can read a map to a certain point but appreciate most others input on subtles Expand If you are new you should check this out. It is super helpful! I recommend reading through the thread above and then going to tropical tidbits and filtering for Northern Hemisphere as the region and choose 500 MB height anomaly for the plots.. then let us know which one of @psuhoffman looks the GFS is showing in the long range.. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 10:34 AM, Ji said: Gfs finally has dt woof Expand Pretty classic setup verbatim. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 10:57 AM, 40westwx said: If you are new you should check this out. It is super helpful! Expand yes am familiar,iar with this info, have been around a while and have partly read the famous northeast snowstorm book by the 2 big weather experts, Paul kocin and the other phd in meteorology, plus have lived thru some biggies like blizzard of 66, 79,88, and some big misses like 66 was supposed to be but wasn't. etc. Thanks for your effort. I was fortunate to sit beside mr kocin at one of the amax meetings at BWI several years ago, and talked to ustedtobe at same conference. His education in physics was very remarkable. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Impressive London & Southeast @TheSnowDreamer *Huge* heat flux now being modelled by ECM goodnight vienna stratospheric polar vortex. 3:16 AM · Dec 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 On 12/21/2020 at 11:04 AM, howrdcounty snow said: yes am familiar,iar with this info, have been around a while and have partly read the famous northeast snowstorm book by the 2 big weather experts, Paul kocin and the other phd in meteorology, plus have lived thru some biggies like blizzard of 66, 79,88, and some big misses like 66 was supposed to be but wasn't. etc. Thanks for your effort. I was fortunate to sit beside mr kocin at one of the amax meetings at BWI several years ago, and talked to ustedtobe at same conference. His education in physics was very remarkable. Expand I would have liked to have been at that meeting.. but seriously the GFS is showing some text book stuff i the long range... today might be a really fun day around here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
howrdcounty snow Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 its good to post to you, tyvm, good ideas and observations, yes the conversations were excellent, I enjoyed listening and asking questions to 2 such learned men. and the conferences were excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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