WxUSAF Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 18 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Just a snapshot of what models are being asked to handle...Blocking galore and energy flying around everywhere. Not that it hasnt been said but anything past D7-8 is a crapshoot.. Not sure what you mean. Looks like a clear triple phaser March 93 incoming. 1 9 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Its 3-6 I'm always conservative with mixed bag events and any snow map beyond D2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 20 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Don’t forget Wentz, snowman, and chris. We need that ensemble consensus I was pointing out the same thing as Leesburg. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Say goodbye PV 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said: I'm always conservative with mixed bag events and any snow map beyond D2. yeah I agree.. I am not getting too excited bout this one.. especially with the euro taking a step back... our best hope would be for the front to clear the area and then an upper level low comes bowling through spawning a snowstorm.. the anafront is not really a thing here I was just sayong 3-6 cause the HH GFS actually did show 3-6.. and its Christmas eve so.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 23 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still on the subject of DT. He called that window last week well before it happened. Then it kinda disappeared for a bit before it came roaring back. I don’t mind listening to him even if the models don’t show your yard getting two feet. Most Meterologists don't change their forecast every 6 hours lol. If we ( this board) were in charge of forecasting for NWS people would have whiplash lol. I think DT is very knowledgeable ,his delivery is undesirable though lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: DT still saying lots of potential and opportunities I think I'll wait for Jaydebbiedowner, nosfan and jerkkel to confirm LOL. If you want to take things out of context, that's on you. I have no problem with him, or anyone, saying there is lots of potential and opportunities. There certainly is. But invoking best pattern since 1996 given what we've seen over the past 25 + years is insanity and it's hyping. There are people who actually go to him for their weather needs. There are people that read this board who are weather novices eating this stuff up. It's irresponsible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 41 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Still on the subject of DT. He called that window last week well before it happened. Then it kinda disappeared for a bit before it came roaring back. I don’t mind listening to him even if the models don’t show your yard getting two feet. He called that, but so did literally everyone in the world. The NAO was rising then. It was pretty easy. I like how you left off him woofing about the complete swing and miss in early December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 19 minutes ago, chris21 said: I was pointing out the same thing as Leesburg. LOL my bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: He called that, but so did literally everyone in the world. The NAO was rising then. It was pretty easy. I like how you left off him woofing about the complete swing and miss in early December. Well my memory ain’t what it once was, but if I remember correctly we did get a storm then but it was just too warm. I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: LOL. If you want to take things out of context, that's on you. I have no problem with him, or anyone, saying there is lots of potential and opportunities. There certainly is. But invoking best pattern since 1996 given what we've seen over the past 25 + years is insanity and it's hyping. There are people who actually go to him for their weather needs. There are people that read this board who are weather novices eating this stuff up. It's irresponsible. If you disagree, then what would you say is the best pattern since 1996? One of them has to be the best one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If you disagree, then what would you say is the best pattern since 1996? One of them has to be the best one. I heard something happened in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Just checking in. Everyone ok? Lots of drinking going on during Sunday Funday. Let me get back to it! You guys bring home the DT BECS now. The pattern looks ripe! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 2 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I heard something happened in 2010. I heard the euro nailed sandy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I heard something happened in 2010. Ok. So that’s your opinion. DT has his. His are backed with credentials. What are yours? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Ok. So that’s your opinion. DT has his. His are backed with credentials. What are yours? Facts? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 34 minutes ago, osfan24 said: Facts? Which are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Which are? 2010 produced back-to-back HECS. I guess we can circle back to this convo after our back-to-back HECS in early January. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Pattern recognition and actual outcomes are two different things. The bickering over DT comments is ridiculous. The pattern looks favorable for potential winter weather. Stick with that and let's see it play out. Please stop the madness. 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 @osfan24 you ok bro? Always bitching these days... 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 28 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Pattern recognition and actual outcomes are two different things. The bickering over DT comments is ridiculous. The pattern looks favorable for potential winter weather. Stick with that and let's see it play out. Please stop the madness. Thank you. Spot on. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Thank you. Spot on. Agreed. Maybe next time he should say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 GFS slower with the front. Not as happy as the HH run but verbatim would be some flakes, better for favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 The @CAPE Xmas miracle still lives! A quick 1-2”(clown maps) snow blast I’m sure would be just fine with everyone. GFS still has it in some weird way, but we take... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 39 minutes ago, Scraff said: The @CAPE Xmas miracle still lives! A quick 1-2”(clown maps) snow blast I’m sure would be just fine with everyone. GFS still has it in some weird way, but we take... The 0z GEFS supports the OP. Not as good as 18z but most of the members get some flakes into the area. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 40 minutes ago, Scraff said: The @CAPE Xmas miracle still lives! A quick 1-2”(clown maps) snow blast I’m sure would be just fine with everyone. GFS still has it in some weird way, but we take... If it obliterates my healthy snowpack only to replace it with a fraction that’s not exactly a win. I’d rather simply avoid the 12 hour torch and keep my current snow lol. But for those not with snow OTG I can see the excitement. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2020 Author Share Posted December 21, 2020 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The 0z GEFS supports the OP. Not as good as 18z but most of the members get some flakes into the area. 00z GEFS Ensemble mean looks like 3 inches at DCA... must be a few members skewing the mean I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 12 minutes ago, yoda said: 00z GEFS Ensemble mean looks like 3 inches at DCA... must be a few members skewing the mean I guess Yeah. It was a little better at 18z. Anyway here are the members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 Both the GEFS and EPS have more of a west based -NAO in the LR. The overall pattern looks favorable, but need to keep an eye on the NE PAC trough. Really want that feature to stay back over the Aleutians. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 21, 2020 Share Posted December 21, 2020 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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