osfan24 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 27 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: DT is woofing hard at the 28/29 time frame I get things look promising but his thoughts are crazy. Best look since 1996? LOL. No models even have a snowstorm right now. This far out in 2016, almost every model was showing a storm and was locked in the rest of the way. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: Mood flakes on Christmas Day? Fringed! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: No flooding rains lol. Pretty dry . Snow piles will be safe . Took a step back on the snow from 6z but also less flooding rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 The 850 line is all the way down in NC but it’s raining up to Wisconsin. Just can’t get any decent cold air? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I get things look promising but his thoughts are crazy. Best look since 1996? LOL. No models even have a snowstorm right now. This far out in 2016, almost every model was showing a storm and was locked in the rest of the way. I assume he is only comparing the advertised h5 looks to past Ninas, but idk because I couldn't care less what he thinks lol. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Big story this week will be the single digit wind chills on Christmas. Not a torch!!! 12Z WB GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 11 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS stronger with the x-mas wave once to the 50/50 region....and man, what a block.. Is the blocking more West based ? Can you share an image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: The 850 line is all the way down in NC but it’s raining up to Wisconsin. Just can’t get any decent cold air? Lots of potential with the general idea. GFS op continues to flash the west based -NAO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, osfan24 said: I get things look promising but his thoughts are crazy. Best look since 1996? LOL. No models even have a snowstorm right now. This far out in 2016, almost every model was showing a storm and was locked in the rest of the way. Even with blocking it is fair to say that expectations should be tempered. But, wow, night and day versus last year at this time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, frd said: Is the blocking more West based ? Can you share an image? A bit more west based.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 Cutter at 240. Ji in 3..2..1.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Cutter at 240. Ji in 3..2..1.. Yeah. I’ll channel my inner Ji and say that for all the potential, I don’t see any pretty colors over my house. Just cutters and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Cutter at 240. Ji in 3..2..1.. The Op GFS for some reason in -AO/NAO pattens has a tendency beyond 180 to love dumping trofs into the plains or west. We saw this back near 12/1-12/5 and it never came close to verifying 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 60s on NYE per the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 19 minutes ago, CAPE said: Cutter at 240. Ji in 3..2..1.. Beyond the physics of the GFS to handle that mega block. I would not trust the Euro either just yet. Although I would think the EPS mean snowfall should be above climo, we shall see later . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: Good post. I pointed this out with the last storm. The lack of a block and the resulting transient 50-50 low was one fundamental problem, esp for eastern areas. The confluence was on the move and displaced too far NE. I agree to an extent but like every setup it’s a matter of degrees. Problem is in DEC with warm SST even for Dec you need almost a perfect setup. You are right it wasn’t the PERFECT setup for a DC BIG snow and I never had DC pegged as the epicenter of that storm. I think 3-6 was my original thought from 72 hours. But at that time guidance had a better mid level pass/close and wasn’t picking up on that crazy mid level warm layer. The actual track was ok for a messy but significant snow. We get caught in the HECS look but most of DC snows aren’t HECS. That look was fine for a 3-6” to ice event in DC had other details gone better. A better mid level track or earlier phase and DC provably gets a few more inches before that warm layer blasts in...and maybe more on the back as a less westward intrusion takes less time to recover. So if the point is that look was not ideal for a HECS I totally agree. But it was a look that has lead to plenty of good solid snows in and around DC just not HECS level. 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs snow on Xmas eve then flurries on Xmas day. Gotta love it . And really only a few hours above normal Thursday temp wise .Wednesday leading in has cad keeping us cool If we can somehow avoid the spike to 50 dews on Thursday we could hold our pack. It’s like 8” of solid you can stand on it concrete with like 1.5 qpf content here. It won’t melt easy if we can avoid a complete torch somehow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 This is pretty exciting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 days ago the GFS had a cutter with rain to Canada today. Instead there is a weak wave squashed to our southeast. Just pointing that out. Might be relevant. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 5 days ago the GFS had a cutter with rain to Canada today. Instead there is a weak wave squashed to our southeast. Just pointing that out. Might be relevant. Are you saying that maybe the cutter on the 10 day gfs might not work out? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 One last point regarding super long range. For 3 weeks now guidance suddenly shifts to a central pac Nina ridge look after week 3. But the generally weak AO continues. But that pac look continues to get kicked in time as the WPO vortex persists. I think the guidance may be keying on the enso SST and missing the north pac pattern suppressing the Nina ridge. I think that north pac pattern may be a result of the very odd (for a Nina) warm waters to the north of the enso regions. We’ve seen this game before where guidance wants to shift the look to a classic enso response week 3+ but it never happens. The last two years were a classic example of this when the weak ninos were offset by other factors. It’s possible we are seeing the same but in out favor this time. Either way even if the pac goes to hell if we keep a -NAM state we could still get periods of opportunity unlike last year. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: This is pretty exciting Holy....I’ve never seen the PV that obliterated. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 DT just tweeted again "WOOF" for December 30th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said: DT just tweeted again "WOOF" for December 30th. If he keeps changing the dates enough times, he will get it right one time! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I agree to an extent but like every setup it’s a matter of degrees. Problem is in DEC with warm SST even for Dec you need almost a perfect setup. You are right it wasn’t the PERFECT setup for a DC BIG snow and I never had DC pegged as the epicenter of that storm. I think 3-6 was my original thought from 72 hours. But at that time guidance had a better mid level pass/close and wasn’t picking up on that crazy mid level warm layer. The actual track was ok for a messy but significant snow. We get caught in the HECS look but most of DC snows aren’t HECS. That look was fine for a 3-6” to ice event in DC had other details gone better. A better mid level track or earlier phase and DC provably gets a few more inches before that warm layer blasts in...and maybe more on the back as a less westward intrusion takes less time to recover. So if the point is that look was not ideal for a HECS I totally agree. But it was a look that has lead to plenty of good solid snows in and around DC just not HECS level. I don't wanna hijack the thread, but I am saying that if there been a block leading in, and with better confluence/ more of a suppressive mechanism, the evolution would probably have been different enough that the surface low/850 low tracks would have been further SE, and the temp profile colder, thus a better outcome for places further south and east. Nothing to do with HECS, just in general, underscoring the importance of a -NAO/ 50-50 combo, making the timing less critical. Ofc there are other aspects(upstream) that had it played out a little differently, could have also led to a better outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 In fairness, he is pointing and has been pointing to a range at the end of the month for being favorable for a potential storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Pretty cool that the block forced redevelopment off NC from Chicago this run . Lots of potential coming up. Agreed. The GFS is not handling the upcoming block very well. A little stronger HP up top and that is a KY to SC jumper and we get smashed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 I’m not mad at the GEFS for the xmas storm. Some nice looks there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, 40westwx said: Are you saying that maybe the cutter on the 10 day gfs might not work out? Imo global operationals have become really amazing at giving a generally accurate (so long as you don’t expect dead on balls accurate details) look at synoptic setups once inside about 150 hours or so. Longer leads in some incredibly stable blocking patterns and less in volition ones but in general once inside 150 you get a decent idea what the general look will be. That’s an amazing thing considering day 6 used to be a complete crapshoot not long ago. But past 150 they go haywire fast. Chaos and exponential errors start to take over. So imo what’s more important then looking at the op output past 150 is to look at the general H5 pattern at about day 5/6 then extrapolate where that SHOULD go based on history. That is where the “woofs” are coming from. The look day 5/6 has a LOT of potential regardless of how any one op run handles the details after. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 20, 2020 Share Posted December 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, osfan24 said: If he keeps changing the dates enough times, he will get it right one time! I mean he is just pointing out that the setup is perfect for a big storm. Trying to nail down the day it happens from 10 days out is laughable. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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