psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 4:41 AM, clskinsfan said: The Kicker has a legit chance to work out. Temps are fine. Will it be juicy enough? Expand If its trailing right behind a system that pulls the baroclinic zone well off the coast and its screaming in from the NW...no. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 4:42 AM, Ji said: On 12/18/2020 at 4:40 AM, psuhoffman said: Can we keep this pattern rolling into January when this would really pay off? The worst kind of gut punch would be to largely waste this now then have it break down and resume a typical nina look when our best snow climo starts. Expand We still have not seen any arctic air yet Expand looks like we get a brief shot around xmas...then after there is at least cold air around to tap. We have been paying for the god awful November still. It was so bad...one of the worst November's every...that it wasn't easy for the thermal profile of North America to recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Xmas 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Oddly the anafront snow idea on xmas eve is on the GFS and CMC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 4:47 AM, psuhoffman said: That looks like the 20 minute super cold front blizzard we got a few years ago 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 4:48 AM, psuhoffman said: Oddly the anafront snow idea on xmas eve is on the GFS and CMC. I'm sure it will work out 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 4:46 AM, psuhoffman said: looks like we get a brief shot around xmas...then after there is at least cold air around to tap. We have been paying for the god awful November still. It was so bad...one of the worst November's every...that it wasn't easy for the thermal profile of North America to recover. Expand Last month felt like the exact opposite of the last two November's...they were pretty cold weren't they? And then there were the head fakes that the pattern to follow would be good...and it turned bad instead. Now wouldn't it be funny if the opposite happened this year? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 4:49 AM, Ji said: On 12/18/2020 at 4:47 AM, psuhoffman said: Expand That looks like the 20 minute super cold front blizzard we got a few years ago Expand It actually stripes us with 3-5" right through up the middle of our forum. On 12/18/2020 at 4:49 AM, Ji said: On 12/18/2020 at 4:48 AM, psuhoffman said: Oddly the anafront snow idea on xmas eve is on the GFS and CMC. Expand I'm sure it will work out Expand probably not...but we keep seeing chances in this pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 How can this not produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 4:50 AM, Maestrobjwa said: Last month felt like the exact opposite of the last two November's...they were pretty cold weren't they? And then there were the head fakes that the pattern to follow would be good...and it turned bad instead. Now wouldn't it be funny if the opposite happened this year? LolCold Novembers to me are a big waste and then the pattern can't hold. This year is so much better so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 4:51 AM, Ji said: How can this not produce Expand Would help if that low off AK would back off just a TINY bit...but still that look probably WOULD give us chances and threats...then its up to the details again. Remember 2 weeks ago we saw the blocking up top several days before even a hint of a specific threat showed up. People were frustrated about that. I will take the pattern first...storm threats come if the pattern is right. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @Ji CMC pops another coastal too late a couple days after xmas and has another piece of energy diving in right after that...active pattern. There would be opportunities. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @Ji ignore the surface...this was REAL close to something big here 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @Ji There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run. Details don't work out. A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead. But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period. Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 Active pattern...lots of chances...all too far out to know anything about details. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 5:02 AM, psuhoffman said: [mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run. Details don't work out. A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead. But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period. Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates. Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get our heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 5:09 AM, Ji said: On 12/18/2020 at 5:02 AM, psuhoffman said: [mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run. Details don't work out. A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead. But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period. Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates. Expand Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get out heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell Expand Or, and here me out, we get our Heather A but the pattern then reloads and we repeat that through March 15... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 5:02 AM, psuhoffman said: [mention=514]Ji[/mention] There is your threat around New Years on the GFS from that block...gets squashed this run. Details don't work out. A system crashes into the west coast and flattens the flow which doesn't allow things to amplify...but that is a detail that will change at that lead. But you can see with that block nothing is going to cut in that time period. Just need to get a healthy system to amplify during the window it creates. Still no cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 5:09 AM, Ji said: Yep lots of chances. I'm sure we won't stay dry for the next 14 days but I still like seeing them on the models. Then at some point we get our heather A before we go into la nina se ridge hell Expand I don't know... when we have pacific driven cold Decembers in a nina they tend to fade into a crappy January/February look. When the AO is this negative it tends to linger and reload through winter. That doesn't mean we are headed for 1996 or 2010...sometimes we still struggle in a Nina with a -AO to get EPIC results...it just skews us towards a more normal snowfall year v a dreg year...but that is assuming the STJ goes dormant. If that stays active...then who knows. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 5:11 AM, Ji said: Still no cold Expand There is a shot around Xmas and then after New Years a big dump coming...it finds a way to miss us again with a Miller B first lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @Ji when we get into January if we keep this pattern I think the cold problem wont be as big an issue as right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 @CAPE this what you want? 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 So about the 06z GFS... within 7 days 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 5:23 AM, psuhoffman said: @CAPE this what you want? Expand Now that is a legit west based block in the ideal spot for the MA.. Too bad it's a GFS op run and will never materialize. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 I wouldn't mind the 06z GFS evolution this morning... cold front comes through and a trailing wave develops and runs up the cold front... nice track for us but not for NYC/SNE lol 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 504DM thickness comes to visit for Christmas Day into Boxing Day... highs in the 20s for Christmas Day for just about everyone in the LWX CWA 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 10:22 AM, yoda said: 504DM thickness comes to visit for Christmas Day into Boxing Day Expand Sounds like my girlfriend. What's it mean? White Christmas or 75 degrees? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 18, 2020 Author Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 10:25 AM, dailylurker said: Sounds like my girlfriend. What's it mean? White Christmas or 75 degrees? Expand 06z GFS is a White Christmas with highs in the 20s for most... teens in the mountains. 06z GFS would suggest rain Christmas Eve changing to heavy wet snow... ending Christmas morning. 4-8" of snow. A Christmas miracle indeed 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 18, 2020 Share Posted December 18, 2020 On 12/18/2020 at 10:27 AM, yoda said: 06z GFS is a White Christmas with highs in the 20s for most... teens in the mountains. 06z GFS would suggest rain Christmas Eve changing to heavy wet snow... ending Christmas morning. 4-8" of snow. A Christmas miracle indeed Expand Best post I've seen in a while. Almost sexy lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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