December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[JakkelWx]

Blocking pattern looks well established to continue into the first/second week of January at least for now. The pacific should improve as well

[AlexD1990]

Anything about stormieness around Christmas? Some of us aren't getting shite from Wednesday and are trying to look ahead.

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[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, alexderiemer said:

Anything about stormieness around Christmas? Some of us aren't getting shite from Wednesday and are trying to look ahead.

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I think we have to wait until Jan.  

[mattie g]

GFS sets up a heck of a block right around Christmas.

[clskinsfan]

7 hours ago, Ji said:

if we are tracking a snowstorm now....and we are tracking more winter weather after Christmas into January...when are we suppose to get our dreaded La Nina Winter?

I am honestly starting to wonder if Enso state actually means anything at all when it comes to winters in the Mid Atlantic. 

[JakkelWx]

Southeast trough

[yoda]

From @griteater

27 minutes ago, griteater said:

Today's Euro Weekly Control Run (Jan 2 - Jan 29)  

 

[yoda]

hmmm... from this morning's LWX AFD

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Lingering upslope snow showers may persist Friday, but
otherwise, just dry and chilly with a brisk northwest flow as
the storm continues moving away and high pressure slowly builds
in. Warming trend slowly takes hold this weekend as high
pressure shifts south of the region and a southwesterly flow
develops. Then a digging northern trough and a southern stream
disturbance could try to get together early next week. Still
lots of uncertainty and moving parts here so not any confidence
in another significant storm, as the whole thing could pass with
just a shower, but something to watch after the current system
passes. Temps will be milder just ahead of a cold front Monday,
but cold air will be moving in behind it quickly.

[BristowWx]

Maybe the next storm will be colder. 

[Ji]

Maybe the next storm will be colder. 

What storm. Gfs bone dry at 6z

[frd]

 

Now this I like, looking better and better upstream.  

Possible implications for late December and early January if we develop the + PNA / - EPO.  

[Heisy]

We’re going to have plenty of opportunities. This one is tough to swallow for cities point SE, but it’s only mid December. Can tell already this winter will produce. 

[dailylurker]

1 minute ago, Wentzadelphia said:

We’re going to have plenty of opportunities. This one is tough to swallow for cities point SE, but it’s only mid December. Can tell already this winter will produce. 

You must be new to the area lol

[baltosquid]

06z GFS there’s a low flirting with the 50/50 spot (been bouncing around for a few runs) and plenty of cold to go around on Christmas Eve, just can’t get anything to make use of it. I know the pattern looks better after Christmas, but I can dream.

[BristowWx]

45 minutes ago, Ji said:

3 hours ago, BristowWx said:

Maybe the next storm will be colder. 

What storm. Gfs bone dry at 6z

Figuratively.  At some point there will be a storm.  And maybe it will be colder.  I got nothin’

[clskinsfan]

2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said:

We’re going to have plenty of opportunities. This one is tough to swallow for cities point SE, but it’s only mid December. Can tell already this winter will produce. 

Brother you are in Philly. You get flakes when a bird farts. 

[Cobalt]

To those saying next! Seems.. workable? Temps still super marginal on the means but there's a cluster of lows, just a matter of time until we can parse through the details. PNA spike during this time too, so I'm curious as to how this looks in a few days. 

[Ji]

3 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Brother you are in Philly. You get flakes when a bird farts. 

lol philly is a terrible snow town. Id rather live in Wincehster

[BristowWx]

 Xmas looks colder than Thanksgiving was.  We got that for now.  

[blizzardmeiser]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol philly is a terrible snow town. Id rather live in Wincehster

Agree north and west of the city does much better. 

[jaydreb]

17 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

To those saying next! Seems.. workable? Temps still super marginal on the means but there's a cluster of lows, just a matter of time until we can parse through the details. PNA spike during this time too, so I'm curious as to how this looks in a few days. 

Looks even better now!

 

[aldie 22]

10 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

 Xmas looks colder than Thanksgiving was.  We got that for now.  

wasn't it 90 on Thanksgiving?

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said:

wasn't it 90 on Thanksgiving?

88

[ryanconway63]

That's a powerful cold front on the Euro for Christmas Eve

[WinterWxLuvr]

13 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

That's a powerful cold front on the Euro for Christmas Eve

Great .... wind

[H2O]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Great .... wind

cold wind

[Heisy]

49 minutes ago, Ji said:

lol philly is a terrible snow town. Id rather live in Wincehster

Yeah idk what he means by that. We’re just as bad as DC pretty much.

[Heisy]

25 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said:

That's a powerful cold front on the Euro for Christmas Eve

It reminds me of the December 2000 cold front that had epic thunderstorms and setup a nice pattern that lead to the dec 30 event. Of course that was a bust west of philly, but pattern does look good. It’s better than missing this storm and looking like crap.

 

im chasing to Williamsport Pa. at this rate the best forcing will end up NW of even me

[snowmagnet]

It seemed like no one was posting on this page for several days.  Now we are all like "when do we start tracking the next storm?"

[mattskiva]

7 hours ago, dailylurker said:

You must be new to the area lol

 

How quickly some of you forget the period from 2013-2016.  Seemed like every year was a good snow year here, at least in Loudoun.  Yeah we've had a few bad years since, but it wasn't that long ago that this area did well regularly.