MJO812 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ukie Snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Cobb data is out for the 0Z GFS run. It is surprisingly bad for east of 81 so I wont post it. If anyone want to look at it. go to this link and change MRB to your closest airport code. I am not trying to add negativity to this thread: https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kmrb 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I told y'all not to worry 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Cobb data is out for the 0Z GFS run. It is surprisingly bad for east of 81 so I wont post it. If anyone want to look at it. go to this link and change MRB to your closest airport code. I am not trying to add negativity to this thread: https://meteor.geol.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=gfs&site=kmrb Looked great for KCHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 UKIE 6-12 for most i95 and west... @mappy jackpot (north central MD into NE MD 12"+) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 This from MAG5035 in the central PA forum "Hmm, well at least on the WeatherBell products it appears the op data for the GFS and Euro is 0.25º and 0.1º respectively while their ensembles are both at 0.5º resolution. Without getting into a whole thing on GIS/mapping/degrees to meters conversion, the short answer would be yea the ensembles are run at a lower resolution (higher degree number). The high res Euro at 0.1º would be a bigger resolution difference vs it's ensemble. So I guess it could be implied that the lower resolution could flatten mesoscale features and thermal boundaries a bit and that difference could show with coastal low development, especially with how warm the water is off the eastern seaboard. Also, ensembles aren't going to see CAD as well as an op or especially a meso model for that same general reasoning. The higher resolution of the ops might be promoting a more explosive coastal response (and also closer to the coastline) just simply on the premise of modeling a sharper clash of warm vs cold. Given the +SST anomalies present on the eastern seaboard and a fairly respectable cold air air mass being supplied by the Canadian high, it may be wise to lean that direction with trying to blend guidance. Ultimately, I'm not sure how much the resolution difference actually plays in the grand scheme of things, as an ensemble is made of individual members that have their own specific conditionals to form a mean within a range of possible outcomes, which pretty much can have a similar effect as lower resolution flattening features out. Thing with ensembles is we're typically looking at them to get a handle on overall larger scale things with these events (QPF fields, pressure/height fields, accumulation probabilities, etc).. especially at this middle range where we don't have our short range or meso models in range quite yet. " 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I don't have access but I read on another forum that the gfs-para is a good hit for both storms.... I hope they meant mid mid Atlantic and not NEPA or something. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: I don't have access but I read on another forum that the gfs-para is a good hit for both storms.... I hope they meant mid mid Atlantic and not NEPA or something. You do have access. Go to Pivotalweather.com 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 That follow up wave on the Gfs has some ice out this way for Sunday. Temps are pretty atrocious. But something to watch at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Well, the 00z runs were pretty much a great run for all of the sub-forum, and being totally serious, the CMC actually had some room for improvement (Yes, it could've been a whole lot better) and the GFS finally got a grip and has a surface reflection more indicative to its 5H progression. There wasn't much of a shift at 5H outside the eventual close off over DE, but that's something that won't be solved until closer to game time. CAD sig on both the CMC and GFS were classic for a precursor to a major snow for the Balt/DC megalopolis with the wedge down to SC/N GA. One of the biggest differences between the GFS and CMC was actually the extension of dry air at 7H that lead to the storm cutting off a bit abruptly. The 700mb moisture field was actually a good 1 deviation drier than the GFS as a whole, which would limit some of the total moisture content available for the storm. The + Theta-E advection nose was focused well to the north of the area on the CMC where all other models have it right into the sub-forum. One of the biggest reasonings was the CMC actually led an open 7H depiction until just north of our latitude, so that would cause the heaviest plume to be centered over NJ/NY/PA instead of MD/VA. I'm not too worried about that unless it's a pattern the other models pick up. In any case, both would provide warning criteria snows for much of the area. The deformation axis on the GFS is sublime with a co-located 7H and 85H frontogen placed along I-95 with 7H extension back to the western folks. There's a classic "warm nose" indication at 850mb that we see with bombing cyclones in these parts, and that's actually a good thing because that's an indicator of prime moisture advection into the boundary layer in co-location with the lift. This will be a fun event for many and we haven't even talked about banding yet. Good times 20 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: You do have access. Go to Pivotalweather.com This is Saturday 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Thanatos_I_Am said: This is Saturday 0z Para always comes out a day late and only at 00z. That's why its really hard to assess its usefulness, IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I don't care when it initialized. I will take my 23 inches and run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 next 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 might be the first run to push up the start time in awhile. first flakes at 87hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro isnt good 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Always a good sign when hkywx and them south boys giddy about ice and sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Yeah, Euro went the other way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I really don't like seeing the high trending further east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro isnt goodcan’t seem to figure out where the SLP will develop from the looks of it. definitely trying to justify an off run but it looks wacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Not a great euro run...bleh.....unless you're west in which case you get shellacked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Mixing gets as far west as Winchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 recovers a bit at 99 once it figures out that it wants the low in a better spot for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It's pretty meh even up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 It's pretty meh even up here Hopefully its just its overamped self Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Model wars three days out? Perfectly 2020...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Well at least tomorrow the NAM will be in range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's pretty meh even up here you still get over a foot up in northern Maryland. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Euro isn't disaster on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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