jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Unreal cutoff south of Baltimore showing up on almost every model. Difference of a foot over 50 miles. That has to be watched closely. NYC the Lower Hudson valley E PA and NNJ are going to get walloped by this. H5 cut off by AC - someone’s going to hit 30” up there. Feeling pretty confident that the area between myself, PSU, and clredskin is looking pretty darn good for at least 6” at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, HighStakes said: Anything is possible but I would be much more worried about a north trend. I dont see this trending SE. I mean for me confluence continues to be progged a little stronger as we get closer to game time. I may end up being wrong but for me that will more or less force the low to feel it’s effects and go more south than north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 0z GEFS snow maps Lol p27 would pretty much make the entire board happy here. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I mean for me confluence continues to be progged a little stronger as we get closer to game time. I may end up being wrong but for me that will more or less force the low to feel it’s effects and go more south than north. We all know no one would be shocked to wake up tomorrow to a 06z GFS run that has the southern MD crew buzzing and psuhoffman writing up a 1,000 word explanation of what happened. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 8 minutes ago, PhineasC said: It's about that time when we get some OTS burp runs to get the NW crew panicking about being fringed. thats where the ukmet comes in and sends a 1012 low off the Jacksonville coast 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 COULD be a storm where reisterstown sees a foot and heavy snow while Brooklyn and Annapolis see a sloppy 6” if this thing nudges west over the next 48 hours. With that being said... h5 and CAD have been trending really nicely since 12z and I expect 00z euro to follow suit. The ideal storm for the setup we’re currently in falls right between the 00z GFS and the 00z CMC. I don’t want to get my hopes up too high just to get burned but DAMN, does it feel good to be tracking a major winter storm in mid December again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lol p27 would pretty much make the entire board happy here. wonder what happened to P09 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, PhineasC said: We all know no one would be shocked to wake up tomorrow to a 06z GFS run that has the southern MD crew buzzing and psuhoffman writing up a 1,000 word explanation of what happened. Boy I hope not. I want everyone to cash in here. We could all use it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lol p27 would pretty much make the entire board happy here. Looks like the Canadian honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: wonder what happened to P09 Must’ve packed it in like the Icon tonight. Went out to 48 and called it a day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 some of you could see more snow in 30 minutes Wednesday then you did all of last winter 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: some of you could see more snow in 30 minutes Wednesday then you did all of last winter Probably more alcohol too... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: Gfs ens mean 13 inch mean? Really? This is just ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 i just found this map of the GFS from 300 hours ago lol 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Icon finally updated and it too is a mauling considering its warm tendencies. Also has a 1039 high parked up top. Strongest I’ve seen yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 psu said the Icon has been getting closer to the other models 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Ji said: i just found this map of the GFS from 300 hours ago lol Actually this coming week had potential based on teleconnections for at least 2 weeks, pretty cool!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 12 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Must’ve packed it in like the Icon tonight. Went out to 48 and called it a day. The Germans over engineer everything man. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: Actually this coming week has potential based on teleconnections for at least 2 weeks, pretty cool!!! that was the Dec 1 12z model run for the GFS. Modeling is sick 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: that was the Dec 1 12z model run for the GFS. Modeling is sick PSU posted something similar for the last coastal (which was all rain)...GFS sniffed that out from 10+ days out but just had the thermals a bit off. USA USA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, Ji said: that was the Dec 1 12z model run for the GFS. Modeling is sick It is crazy how good it really is. I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 0z Canadian, not sure if this was posted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 16 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Must’ve packed it in like the Icon tonight. Went out to 48 and called it a day. It’s out on SV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 RGEM at 84 looks amazing as well. 1038 over the top and strengthening LP off the SC coast. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 27 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Lol p27 would pretty much make the entire board happy here. 3 would really suck for the PA peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Ukie 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM at 84 looks amazing as well. 1038 over the top and strengthening LP off the SC coast. Yep, was going to post the same. If it went past 84, I’d think we’d like what it showed. And nice to see precip already breaking out by hour 84 across the mountains and SW VA. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 13, 2020 Author Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: RGEM at 84 looks amazing as well. 1038 over the top and strengthening LP off the SC coast. 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Yep, was going to post the same. If it went past 84, I’d think we’d like what it showed. And nice to see precip already breaking out by hour 84 across the mountains and SW VA. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, Amped said: More progressive troff FTW. I think It's the Pacjet behind the storm that causes this since it didn't start out more progressive. We finally found some use for that thing 1 hour ago, Amped said: Big wiff north of NYC almost like FEB 2010, but cutoff is a bit further north. The 2010 cutoff was crazy. Razor thin...cutoff even went south of due east as it hit the wall. Crazy blocking. This cutoff is more typical of big storms...1996, 2016...where there is a sharp northern cutoff somewhere as you hit the confluence but its not like going from over a foot to nothing in 30 miles like some places in 2010. 1 hour ago, Ji said: Those DMV specials often do this right? yea...because for us to get crushed we need that confluence to our north...not just to stop the storm from cutting but to create the crazy lift and fgen you get from the WAA be resisting. If there is no resistance the warm air just pushes north and you don't get the same VV's. The more the cold resists the more lift. But that means there is likely a wall of confluence somewhere to your north and the northern edge will hit a brick wall somewhere. Add in the subsidence you will get outside that NW most banding and you can get a pretty sharp cutoff. 1 hour ago, Deck Pic said: It's a pretty classic Miller A It is definitely more Miller A then it was represented a few days ago. And I would agree with your assessment. But there are some that classify any system with a primary that initially gets up west of the apps as a hybrid. Some even argued that 96 was hybrid because there was a trough up west of the apps early in its development. I think that is going a bit far but...I am not one to argue over definitions much. 27 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Actually this coming week had potential based on teleconnections for at least 2 weeks, pretty cool!!! Yea the guidance has been on a long range roll lately. It pegged this from super long range as a "window of opportunity" and there was about 36 hours where it became a bit murky there but for the most part this was a time to watch from weeks ago. Guidance is hinting at another period after xmas that bears watching now...lets see if they remain on a heater. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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