PivotPoint Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, 12+ is hard along 95 but you’ll be led astray 9 times out of 10 if you’re only using the clown maps to set your expectations. Don’t ruin a perfectly excellent 8-9” event because you had inflated expectations watching the Euro op at 120 hours. That goes for any location along the EC. Exactly. My expectation for dc has never been over 6”. No matter which juiced model I watch. It’s just not a solid setup for 95. Just isn’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, MJO812 said: How does this compare to 12z? That panel looks real nice for 95 west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Heh. 18z is definitely colder than 12z at the surface and at 850. To be honest, if it went the other way I'd be calling it noise, but since it confirms my biases I'll say its a trend. Control is hideous though. Better hope we can toss it. 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18z EPS is much improved compared to 12z EPS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Paraphrasing what I can see posted elsewhere, EPS follows the op (unsurprisingly) and is a little weaker and more progressive. Which is a trade I think we’d all make. SLP track looks classic. Maybe 2-4 members as far west as 18z gfs? Haven’t seen thermals yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Paraphrasing what I can see posted elsewhere, EPS follows the op (unsurprisingly) and is a little weaker and more progressive. Which is a trade I think we’d all make. SLP track looks classic. Maybe 2-4 members as far west as 18z gfs? Haven’t seen thermals yet. No one along or west of I-95 should be upset with the 18z EPS...even cutting the totals in half, it's a solid low end warning event at least. Even Charles and southern PG get a decent advisory level event. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Heh. 18z is definitely colder than 12z at the surface and at 850. To be honest, if it went the other way I'd be calling it noise, but since it confirms my biases I'll say its a trend. I thought it ticked colder too - even comparing the 850 line during the height of the storm, it ticked east from cutting through central Loudoun to now cutting through the eastern part of the county. Something else I noticed is that mean QPF was cut slightly back in Deep Creek (where I’ll be riding this one out) which makes me think there are probably a few less western solutions and/or more progressive. That would translate to a better outcome for the cities. I’m hoping we all can see a warning-criteria storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, nj2va said: I thought it ticked colder too - even comparing the 850 line during the height of the storm, it ticked east from cutting through central Loudoun to now cutting through the eastern part of the county. Something else I noticed is that mean QPF was cut slightly back in Deep Creek (where I’ll be riding this one out) which makes me think there are probably a few less western solutions and/or more progressive. That would translate to a better outcome for the cities. I’m hoping we all can see a warning-criteria storm. Isn't that expected for a weaker system in this scenario? Less warm air advection from the coastal center of circulation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: No one along or west of I-95 should be upset with the 18z EPS...even cutting the totals in half, it's a solid low end warning event at least. Even Charles and southern PG get a decent advisory level event. Show that SLP and 500 track in winter and the 0th order assumption should be WSW snow for most of LWX WFO zone. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Isn't that expected for a weaker system in this scenario? Less warm air advection from the coastal center of circulation? Yes, as a few others pointed out it seems we traded some intensity on the EPS mean for slightly colder solution. Something that helps those on the margins. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 OK, EPS helped wash away the taste of 18z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Show that SLP and 500 track in winter and the 0th order assumption should be WSW snow for most of LWX WFO zone. Agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB EPS Wed. 7pm seems to be the critical thermal period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 ^man knock like 2 degrees off that and everyone wins. We are so close to a regionwide victory. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18z GFS was a burp. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Paraphrasing what I can see posted elsewhere, EPS follows the op (unsurprisingly) and is a little weaker and more progressive. Which is a trade I think we’d all make. SLP track looks classic. Maybe 2-4 members as far west as 18z gfs? Haven’t seen thermals yet. best run yet wrt mslp track 18z v 12z 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Was comparing these wrt the colder profile on top of the primary in KY. Thermals did retreat SLIGHTLY in VA too. This is something that I enjoy because as long as it trends in the right direction we have plenty of time to fix evolution and precipitation type. This goes wrong way we’re all in trouble. Good to see 850s trying to wedge down into SW NC mountains. Good sign normally for I-77/81 and northbound from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 18z EPS is a touch colder at 850 and surface overall- the duration of above 0 850 temps is shorter compared to 12z. My yard only gets to a max of 41at the surface compared to 43 at 12z lol. Trending! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 3 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: ^man knock like 2 degrees off that and everyone wins. We are so close to a regionwide victory. A lot to ask for in mid-December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: 18z EPS is a touch colder at 850 and surface overall- the duration of above 0 850 temps is shorter compared to 12z. My yard only gets to a max of 41at the surface compared to 43 at 12z lol. Trending! If the 18z Eps is exactly right, you should get something on the front end and the back. Just a lot of rain in the middle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 WB 18X EPS. Still lots of nice hits region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc? Tomorrow...or 72 hours...? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Weather Channel is showing 12+ just west of D.C. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If the 18z Eps is exactly right, you should get something on the front end and the back. Just a lot of rain in the middle... Yup thats what I have been expecting all along. I am hoping for the back end thump with the deform band per the 12z op run.. Anything at the front end will be washed away most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Checking in from Gaithersburg here. Moved here from Alabama in 2019, so waiting on my first big snow. We got 5” here in Feb 2019 so anything more than that and I’ll be happy! Thanks for all the info, love this place! Now that winter seems to be returning, I’ll start posting more. Just glad we have something to track! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, nj2va said: Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc? Tomorrow...or 72 hours...? Basically. I’d say the Monday 0z runs is where the Op runs are the focus. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 2 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Weather Channel is showing 12+ just west of D.C. The only problem with this is the snow they are showing in NC is actually ICE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 What day is it? Ugh Mids suckAnyway, quick thoughts on 18z:I didn’t see any appreciable changes with regards to the overall setup. GFS is jumpy right now and is on the most extreme envelope of western solutions at this point. The post early from Tomer Burg showing the 5H progs compared to ensemble mean says a lot. I think that might’ve been the most westward extent of the theta-E advection we could get in this setup. CAD still looks good. EPS is actually fairly solid with LP centers within a reasonable envelope favoring the same areas I mentioned before. Rt15 on west is sitting very pretty. I-95 and east will likely see a ptype shift during storm height before the Deform pivots through as the storm moves NE. The northern tier into PA will see it the longest. Don’t live and die by a model run y’all! Everything seems a go. 00z will ultimately shed more light, but don’t expect until Monday until the Synoptic details are more a bit more concrete. Then it’s meso time and banding. Talk to y’all later on the graveyard. Pass the Caffeine . 18 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc? Tomorrow...or 72 hours...? My cutoff has always been HR60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 7 minutes ago, nj2va said: Can someone remind me...what’s the general ‘cut-off’ for relying on the OP vs referring to the ensembles for trends/outlier vs OP/etc? Tomorrow...or 72 hours...? Depends on which one shows more snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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