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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other.

I think we are good in here for now brother. If you start a separate thread and the 0Z runs suck it will only be us western folks in it. 

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4 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Accuweather out with their snowfall forecast.

6-12” blue ridge parkway points west. 
12-18” over much of eastern PA.

The map is low imo for Washington, Baltimore, and Philadelphia, even Charlottesville to the south.
We shall see where things go :snowing:

 

 

A59B55AD-5FE6-4B4A-AAD9-A902600EF281.jpeg

12-18 3 days out? Holy crap Accuweather went full weenie. 

My only comment on the 18Z Euro is the CAD still looks really good. I havent seen the upper air winds though. 

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6 minutes ago, Snowchaser said:

Accuweather out with their snowfall forecast.

6-12” blue ridge parkway points west. 
12-18” over much of eastern PA.

The map is low imo for Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, even Charlottesville to the south.
We shall see where things go :snowing:

 

 

A59B55AD-5FE6-4B4A-AAD9-A902600EF281.jpeg

This looks fine to me. It actually seems bullish at this range with Baltimore in the 6-12 and DC possibly in it or very close to it as well.

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16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Totally forgot the 18z doesn't go past 90. I was refreshing like a maniac, haha. I'm not smart enough to extrapolate but I'm not seeing any obvious warning signs here. I will say the CAD looks better on the 12z.

1608120000-Re1SenK2fiQ.png

If you compare it to 12z same time, the HP in Can. is further east at 18Z.

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15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

@tombo82685 mentioned elsewhere that the shortwave is a little weaker on 18z euro vs 12z. High pressure and CAD look very similar to my eye. We'll see what the EPS offers.

Other than the slightly weaker system the rest of the representation is remarkably similar for 84 hours. The pressure field up top is nearly perfectly identical.  Wrt slightly weaker...if we lose a tiny bit of the mega banding qpf but get this to tuck just a little less that’s probably a winning trade off for most of us. We have dynamics to spare here, room to breath with the track not so much. 

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@WxUSAF one other minor different wrt 18z euro. The thermal boundary shifted north ever so slightly in southern VA by like 10-15 miles but the cold is still draining increasing the gradient so the entire profile didn’t retreat just along the edge. However, it’s colder west of the apps in KY on top of the primary. I don’t the primary would make it as far north on the 18z v 12z. That is provably a trade off I would take for the ever so slight changes in the temps and pressure among the coast.  Thoughts?

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Lol. Not your fault but that map has the high from the 12z run in the wrong spot. I think because the map cuts off just below the true center of the high.  Here.. 

DD91C1BF-3BF1-40FE-AF9D-B3B8228B5009.thumb.png.b7a30418cf40bed0c10e0c6d2b79ce68.png

3CB8CD3C-084B-4D29-BA1B-90F4AC46DD1B.thumb.png.dbe33a435a80f40d47b5392cd3f13354.png

like I said maybe a few miles apart...

 

Thanks... I will use the pressure maps in the future.  I learned something new again today...reason I’m here...

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Just now, Weather Will said:

Thanks... I will use the pressure maps in the future.  I learned something new again today...reason I’m here...

I wasn’t picking on you. That was totally ok. Not your fault.  That map did say what you said. Those multi plot precip type charts aren’t as precise with estimating pressure locations as the mslp plots.  

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@WxUSAF one other minor different wrt 18z euro. The thermal boundary shifted north ever so slightly in southern VA by like 10-15 miles but the cold is still draining increasing the gradient so the entire profile didn’t retreat just along the edge. However, it’s colder west of the apps in KY on top of the primary. I don’t the primary would make it as far north on the 18z v 12z. That is provably a trade off I would take for the ever so slight changes in the temps and pressure among the coast.  Thoughts?

Yeah, I’ve only seen maps folks have posts here and on other forums, but all looks like minor details. 

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9 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

I am talking about the High over Southern Canada.  It keeps shifting further east each run.

Right.  Wasn’t being snarky.  I just follow the 540 contour because it’s easy.  I would be quite happy if the 534 was south of DC..but it’s not.  Sadly.  

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