psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 32 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Look at those ensemble members in @NorthArlington101s maps. Can’t be 100% sure without individual panels, but looks like some also move due north between those panels. Difference is they’re all farther east when they do it vs the Op. I think the SLP center is following where the shortwave turns negatively tilted. You’re right. I was comparing it to 12z op. The 18z is slightly slower so it’s not a perfect comp but they seem to be identical in track through 96h but then 18z jumps due north into the CAD wedge. It is definitely in response to SW going neg. But while the 18z SW is slightly more amplified then 12z I feel like that looks overdone wrt the surface tuck there v 12z. If course maybe 12z was underdone! Lol. Either way the op would be the second most inside track of all the ensembles so it’s an outlier. For the comments WRT the gefs being warmer. They are lower resulting I believe. So they might tend to be warmer by missing some of the dynamic cooling. But what I am more sure of is when you have a few inside runners in the mean they will skew the temps warm a little. I would worry more about the slp clusters and getting a good track more than the mean temps on those plots. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, Weather Will said: I am just trying to be a realist. I lived inside the Beltway for 25 years before moving to Ellicott City and now Brunswick. It snows more outside the Beltway. Where is the forecast map from a pro met for Wed that has the bullseye in the cities eastward? Who is arguing that the cities and east is where the biggest snows will be with this storm? No one has said that. It's pretty clear this is a west of 95 storm. It's just a matter of how far west, and if the cities are able to be on the eastern edge of the big snows. No one thinks Annapolis is getting more than Mount Airy. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I just want the grass covered. That's all I'm asking. A 4" - 6" event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 D^T says toss that ish! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: D^T says toss that ish! THIS IS TOTAL CRAP. Handled with all of the aplomb DT is known for. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, clskinsfan said: THIS IS TOTAL CRAP. Handled with all of the aplomb DT is know for. It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go. 5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, WxUSAF said: It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go. Isn’t it consistent with 12z EPS, which was pretty far west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Cobb data is out for 18Z GFS. I wont post it. It is ugly for east of 81. We toss this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Isn’t it consistent with 12z EPS, which was pretty far west? Nowhere like 18z gfs. Mean track off shore as far as I can see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’ll be total crap as long as the euro doesn’t do the same thing. Seriously though, it’s a big outlier. Throw it in the mix and move on. Still got almost 4 days to go. I feel like a west jog is almost inevitable given the modeled NE hp ever so slightly retreating over past two runs and PNA (again) just not quite as pumped as prior runs. We cant forget how MUCH we really need to go right in the mid-Atlantic (especially 95 crew) to get a 12”+ storm. It sucks actually. Total crap! Eta: the total crap was not a jab at all by the way. Came out naturally lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Isn’t it consistent with 12z EPS, which was pretty far west? fwiw. slightly more west than 06z but there are some big members messing with the mean again (986mb over Hagerstown, for example). I'd say there are more along the Chesapeake than we'd like but it's more than workable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Nowhere like 18z gfs. Mean track off shore as far as I can see. Looked almost the same as the Euro op to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Come on 18z Euro.. Keep hope alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 @psuhoffman look again at the 12z euro SLP track. 102hr off south end of OBX. 108hr mouth of the Bay 114hr due north (!) over Rehobeth beach 120hr moves southeast (!) out to sea This is all about how the upper level energy stacks and captures the surface low. Get it to stack in a good place, and we get nuked. As it is, that’s why we get an awesome CCB death band on the euro. Get it to stack in a poor place and it’s 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah, 12+ is hard along 95 but you’ll be led astray 9 times out of 10 if you’re only using the clown maps to set your expectations. Don’t ruin a perfectly excellent 8-9” event because you had inflated expectations watching the Euro op at 120 hours. That goes for any location along the EC. Mentally I've been thinking 6-8" with a slight chance of an upside if things really lined up. I'd be good with that...will be disappointed if it busts lower though. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Helluva week to make a return! Looking decent for 6” or more area wide! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 7 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: Come on 18z Euro.. Keep hope alive Coming back to weenie windshield wipe the other side of the window. Tomorrow night the wipers should stop somewhere in the middle...and we hope it’s slightly off the OC coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Mentally I've been thinking 6-8" with a slight chance of an upside if things really lined up. I'd be good with that...will be disappointed if it busts lower though. I like the call. 6-8” is a realistic call at this point. My folks who live 40 miles NW of nyc are in for 12+ easily - I’m a bit jealous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Mentally I've been thinking 6-8" with a slight chance of an upside if things really lined up. I'd be good with that...will be disappointed if it busts lower though. 6 inch storm in December is straight money. Don’t sleep on it. I hope we can break 6. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Mentally I've been thinking 6-8" with a slight chance of an upside if things really lined up. I'd be good with that...will be disappointed if it busts lower though. This is a good state of mind to have. And I think it is a realistic possibility. The thing is people forget just how much snow 8 inches really is. It has been too long for an area wide 6+ snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I haven’t seen real snow for two years. The only good thing about 2020 is that we are tracking something now - DECEMBER - that may give us snow that we can count in ‘inches’. It is a freakin’ miracle in my book. Perspective people. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 4 minutes ago, Clueless said: I haven’t seen real snow for two years. The only good thing about 2020 is that we are tracking something now - DECEMBER - that may give us snow that we can count in ‘inches’. It is a freakin’ miracle in my book. Perspective people. There really should be no "bar", or threshold for disappointment, when most of us did not even crack an inch last winter. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 10 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: I think that’s a good place to be. Region wide (sorry eastern shore) warning level event seems totally reasonable even with some mixing. Anything more is gravy. The overall setup before you get to any computer generated maps is really good for most places. If things go right this isn’t a pinpoint strike where only westerners get hit, it’s a carpet bombing. Of the wintry variety. @MillvilleWx made great points on this earlier. That’s kind of where I am at right now, 6”+ down here just NW of Fredericksburg would be nice. I know I’m going to mix, or change to rain, happens in most big storms. Maybe warning criteria of 5”+ or really any snow would be a better bar, but either way, it’s nice to track something in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 21 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: 6 inch storm in December is straight money. Don’t sleep on it. I hope we can break 6. This sounds nice and all, but when rain/snow line is hanging around and there is 2+ inches of qpf on the Euro, I want the big dog. They only come around so often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 I'll break some of the tension in the room 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Totally forgot the 18z doesn't go past 90. I was refreshing like a maniac, haha. I'm not smart enough to extrapolate but I'm not seeing any obvious warning signs here. I will say the CAD looks better on the 12z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 Accuweather out with their snowfall forecast. 6-12” blue ridge parkway points west. 12-18” over much of eastern PA. The map is low imo for Washington, Baltimore, Philadelphia, even Charlottesville to the south. We shall see where things go 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 13, 2020 Share Posted December 13, 2020 1 minute ago, osfan24 said: BTW, shouldn't we start a separate thread for this storm? Even if it does come way west, Winchester/Hagerstown, etc should be in for significant winter weather one way or the other. What storm? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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