December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[EastCoast NPZ]

7 hours ago, Amped said:

Beleive that was a stronger low, no?  

That storm still ranks the King in intensity out here.  Temps in the low teens, thundersnow, and 32" in 16 hours.  Almost 5" in an hour at the height of the storm.  I'll never forget it.

I hope this storm can be half what that one was.

[poolz1]

What astounds me is the qpf that will be wrung out...This isnt one of our 36+ hour long duration storms.  First flake to last flake is probably 18-20 hours depending on the model and spitting out widespread 15-20".  Going to be an absolute mauling if things hold.

 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Beleive that was a stronger low, no?  

That storm still ranks the King in intensity out here.  Temps in the low teens, thundersnow, and 32" in 16 hours.  Almost 5" in an hour at the height of the storm.  I'll never forget it.

I hope this storm can be half what that one was.

I was a kid living in Carroll county at the time. True Arctic air mass locked in leading up to that one. That may have been a Archambault event, as it turned much milder right after that as I recall.

[WxUSAF]

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All I will be watching for future runs are 850/925 temps, and how far inland the 0c line gets. The 6z GFS was not good for our area. Need the low track a bit more offshore. I think any significant ridging out in front is problematic too wrt confluence and surface high strength/position. 

I think a healthy portion of the area should expect to mix. Whether that’s sleet or rain depends on location, but I know I’d be very surprised with an all snow event. I hope we’re all in good position to get the deform band like yesterday’s 12z euro. 

[JakkelWx]

This won't be our last chance for a snowstorm either. Sometime around the holidays, there could be another window for a storm.

It's a loong way out

 

[Buddy1987]

Anyone have update on 6z euro? 

[WxUSAF]

Great posts by @MillvilleWx overnight! I’ve noticed that double barreled low look on the last several euro runs. Can’t tell how legit it is. Without it, the euro probably looks more like the ggem for most of us. Have to watch that going forward. 

[wxdude64]

8 hours ago, snowfan said:

Do you have a 2020version of those 1963 maps? One day they'll update their product.

Do you REALLY want to see a 2020 version of anything??

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

Trixie bullseye. Euro likes the 81 corridor again. 

Will my move NW payoff?  I love that snow map!

[JakkelWx]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I’ve noticed that double barreled low look on the last several euro runs.

It's really the only problem. The euro and the CMC both have a similar strength HP over SE canada and in nearly the same spot. CMC is more tucked in than the GFS but it has lesser of a primary low in the OHV, and not surprisingly its more snow. But look at Feb 2010. Same deal. Something still isn't adding up here.

[CAPE]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Great posts by @MillvilleWx overnight! I’ve noticed that double barreled low look on the last several euro runs. Can’t tell how legit it is. Without it, the euro probably looks more like the ggem for most of us. Have to watch that going forward. 

I thought the latest GFS had that going on too. Low offshore in a perfect spot, then next panel it is NW and right on the MA coast.

eta- I am referring to the coastal development/evolution

[WxUSAF]

Just now, CAPE said:

I thought the latest GFS had that going on too. Low offshore in a perfect spot, then next panel it is NW and right on the MA coast.

Sounds like convection issues to me? Low placement is sometimes following the convection? That’s a mesoscale feature that isn’t worth spending time on now. Hopefully the actual circulation center stays offshore. 

[JakkelWx]

CMC vs GFS

Two things that mess things up down here.

1. The high on the GFS is weaker

2. The primary in the OHV is stronger.

What we need to see going forward to dramatically increase significant snow chances further is see the HP in southeast canada correct stronger and the OHV low correct weaker.

[H2O]

24 minutes ago, CAPE said:

All I will be watching for future runs are 850/925 temps, and how far inland the 0c line gets. The 6z GFS was not good for our area. Need the low track a bit more offshore. I think any significant ridging out in front is problematic too wrt confluence and surface high strength/position. 

It safe to say most of us I-95 and east people have seen and been through this enough to know what will happen.  Models will draw us in with snow maps and precip depictions saying we should be frozen. But there will be that one layer at 850/925 that will have +1 or +2C and it will punch in as far as DC and the fall line. Only those with elev and rates will be ok.  For those under 300’ we fight that warm layer every. Single. Time. 

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, JakkelWx said:

CMC vs GFS

Two things that mess things up down here.

1. The high on the GFS is weaker

2. The primary in the OHV is stronger.

What we need to see going forward to dramatically increase significant snow chances further is see the HP in southeast canada correct stronger and the OHV low correct weaker.

This is a known bias of the gfs to drive the primary too far and hold onto it longer. Seen it play out numerous times. I’m sure you have too you’ve been on the board for a long time.

[JakkelWx]

4 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

This is a known bias of the gfs to drive the primary too far and hold onto it longer. Seen it play out numerous times. I’m sure you have too you’ve been on the board for a long time.

I'm sure if the bias corrects as we get ever closer that it'll end up as a win-win for everyone. Down here. I-95 and whatever else. That primary is the reason why the 850s/925s are screwed up. Way too much southern flow when there wouldn't be if the primary wasn't there. Strong a*s high overhead means bidness

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

It safe to say most of us I-95 and east people have seen and been through this enough to know what will happen.  Models will draw us in with snow maps and precip depictions saying we should be frozen. But there will be that one layer at 850/925 that will have +1 or +2C and it will punch in as far as DC and the fall line. Only those with elev and rates will be ok.  For those under 300’ we fight that warm layer every. Single. Time. 

This is true even in a ggem like scenario. Easterly flow off the ocean in the low levels usually produces a transient warm layer somewhere and produces pingers or rain. Meanwhile the Parrs Ridge to Funchester crew are puking dendrites. All very normal. 

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

This is a known bias of the gfs to drive the primary too far and hold onto it longer. Seen it play out numerous times. I’m sure you have too you’ve been on the board for a long time.

I didn’t realize that was a know bias with the GFS especially since the upgrade.  So if you take the over amped Euro and this it should smooth out to a favorable solution.  

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

I didn’t realize that was a know bias with the GFS especially since the upgrade.  So if you take the over amped Euro and this it should smooth out to a favorable solution.  

Well... now that you say that in particular you bring up a good point because with the upgrade I’m not sure that it hasn’t corrected that bias or smoothed it over. One of the Mets or pros would have to chime in. I may stand corrected. I know for sure though there’s been many events to where they were trashing the model because of that tendency at least pre upgrade. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I was a kid living in Carroll county at the time. True Arctic air mass locked in leading up to that one. That may have been a Archambault event, as it turned much milder right after that as I recall.

It did.  There was a minor snow event a couple days later,  as seems usual after a big storm, but it was warm and slushy.  Mid Feb sun and warmth melted it all too quickly.  Snow piles lasted a while though.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EPS maybe tick heavier snow SE, but basically holding course.

[PhineasC]

Soon we will see the runs that shift SE and cause psuhoffman to start talking about being fringed while CAPE and the RIC crew start squawking. All very predictable. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is true even in a ggem like scenario. Easterly flow off the ocean in the low levels usually produces a transient warm layer somewhere and produces pingers or rain. Meanwhile the Parrs Ridge to Funchester crew are puking dendrites. All very normal. 

Yeah I would never expect all snow here in a setup like this. That happens with legit cold and a more offshore track. I am essentially tracking the duration of the warmth/rain during the height of the storm.

[nj2va]

6z EPS snowfall mean almost identical to 00z.  6” along or just west of 95 and increasing west from there to 8-9” in the WV panhandle/81/mountains (note: this is just for the Wed/Thursday event).

[H2O]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

This is true even in a ggem like scenario. Easterly flow off the ocean in the low levels usually produces a transient warm layer somewhere and produces pingers or rain. Meanwhile the Parrs Ridge to Funchester crew are puking dendrites. All very normal. 

So understand that some of us will Debbie this one worse than Ji because we have legit concerns where y’all NW folks worry over nothing. 

[poolz1]

34 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Beleive that was a stronger low, no?  

That storm still ranks the King in intensity out here.  Temps in the low teens, thundersnow, and 32" in 16 hours.  Almost 5" in an hour at the height of the storm.  I'll never forget it.

I hope this storm can be half what that one was.

That is just nuts...I was alive to play in the snow for that one but have little memory of it.  Those stats would rival anything in my weather memory. 

[H2O]

Just now, PhineasC said:

Soon we will see the runs that shift SE and cause psuhoffman to start talking about being fringed while CAPE and the RIC crew start squawking. All very predictable. 

And those runs won’t verify because the storms don’t do that. They never fringe people in favored spots

[frd]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EPS maybe tick heavier snow SE, but basically holding course.

@CAPE in relation to the snow map above where are you ? In the  the 3 inch color  bar?   I am straddling the 5 inch line, ( at the DC&D Canal ) which in the past at this range is a good signal for accumulating snow for my area. ,  Remember way back in 2003 I believe President Day 2 , I mixed, did you ?  I am starting to get a bit excited, but knowing our area, tempering my enthusiasm. Looks like psu gets slammed.  

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Yeah I would never expect all snow here in a setup like this. That happens with legit cold and a more offshore track. I am essentially tracking the duration of the warmth/rain during the height of the storm.

Hell, these setups are sometimes iffy even up my way, the snow/sleet/rain line either sits just to my east, or overhead. Depends on how far west the warm air gets.

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, H2O said:

So understand that some of us will Debbie this one worse than Ji because we have legit concerns where y’all NW folks worry over nothing. 

Oh I’m definitely not in the N/W camp for this storm. I think there’s a very high chance for mix IMBY. 
 

 

 

 

 

 

but yeah, I’ll do better than DC