Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB Oz EURO wind gusts...what is blizzard criteria again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 ^Sustained winds or frequent wind gusts of 35 mph or greater. Visibility of less than a quarter mile due to large amounts of falling or blowing snow. Forecasted continuation of the above conditions for three hours or longer. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 12 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB Oz EURO wind gusts...what is blizzard criteria again? Be careful with the Euro spatial winds. They are typically way over done and should be adjusted by 40-60% pending the setup. I don't foresee a blizzard in the cards for the MD latitude. Best chance is likely NJ 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bridgie04 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 hours ago, yoda said: 114 and 120 on the 00z GGEM is... @Bob Chill face Where is @Bob Chill and does anyone know if he is okay? Going back to lurking. I learn from the pros here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 06z GFS slightly more delayed than previous runs. Still looks like it’s gonna deliver a good hit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB 6z GFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Wow. I think that’s an even bigger hit than 0z. But now I see how the SE edge pushed back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 WB 6Z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I feel east of the parkway and south of D.C will see a MAJOR ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Early Christmas megolapolis gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I feel east of the parkway and south of D.C will see a MAJOR ice storm. What are the surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Early Christmas megolapolis gift. As depicted this will be one for the books. Still long way to go however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What are the surface temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: I feel east of the parkway and south of D.C will see a MAJOR ice storm. 5 minutes ago, BristowWx said: What are the surface temps? This will be a primary snow or rain storm with a touch of sleet on the dividing line. This is not the type of event for prolonged ZR as the surface will not be arctic cold leading in and the boundary layer warmth will reflect back to the surface where the 925mb easterlies take affect. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The GFS basically outlining a massive mauling NW of the fall line with Rt15 on west absolutely destroyed. One things for sure, this thing will not be lacking precip at this rate. Gonna come down to ptype and meso. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The GFS basically outlining a massive mauling NW of the fall line with Rt15 on west absolutely destroyed. One things for sure, this thing will not be lacking precip at this rate. Gonna come down to ptype and meso. Yes. I did notice the surface low was tucked in a little closer which may account for the reduced totals warmer temps SE of of DC. Minor details have major implications on RN/SN line. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: The GFS basically outlining a massive mauling NW of the fall line with Rt15 on west absolutely destroyed. One things for sure, this thing will not be lacking precip at this rate. Gonna come down to ptype and meso. Am wondering as well as to whether rates will overcome the column in parts of the area where a "mix" would be possible. Like if the column gets close to being isothermal or even close to 0.5C at the 850/925 level... if rates were let's say an inch an hour... I could see snow being the predominant PTYPE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 At about 20miles west of the fall line I am confident I will hear some pingers. Another 25 miles SE for the surface would be nice breathing room. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 So now all three global share showing 20”+ in many areas. Just need to figure out how far be the mix line gets. Going to be a hell of a ride over the next couple days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, BristowWx said: At about 20miles west of the fall line I am confident I will hear some pingers. Another 25 miles SE for the surface would be nice breathing room. I'm 20 east of the fall line and I'm expecting just another flooding rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 4 minutes ago, dailylurker said: I'm 20 east of the fall line and I'm expecting just another flooding rain storm. Nah. You’ll get snow too I bet. Might get more sleety than you would like. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 The low looks more compact and tucked in closer to the coast on the 6z GFS. With that, the E/SE winds cause the 850/925 mb temps to warm for a significant part of the storm for eastern areas. The exact track is really the thing to watch at this point. For my yard I would like to see it another 50 miles or so east as it approaches our latitude. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Nah. You’ll get snow too I bet. Might get more sleety than you would like. Could be some sleet, but the signal for warming aloft is such that it would probably be more of a snow-rain deal. If we had a true Arctic air mass to work with, the lower levels and surface would be colder, and probably see more sleet/zr. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 25 minutes ago, yoda said: Am wondering as well as to whether rates will overcome the column in parts of the area where a "mix" would be possible. Like if the column gets close to being isothermal or even close to 0.5C at the 850/925 level... if rates were let's say an inch an hour... I could see snow being the predominant PTYPE Absolutely agree. We've seen this movie before and the usual suspects will be at wits end watching CC/ZDR on Day 0 while the western crew is nuking fatties and posting 1-2"/hr rates for hours on end. No arctic airmass leading in or drilling in like some storms, so this one will be borderline for fall line on east and Frederick on west will be sitting pretty solid 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Could be some sleet, but the signal for warming aloft is such that it would probably be more of a snow-rain deal. If we had a true Arctic air mass to work with, the lower levels and surface would be colder, and probably see more sleet/zr. I could see sleet east of the fall line but not sure ZR is much of an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Seems like a decent set of overnight runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: Seems like a decent set of overnight runs? I am forced to hug the CMC, and I understand it's not much of a model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: I am forced to hug the CMC, and I understand it's not much of a model. I moved away from Woodbridge for storms like this...recent years it feels like Woodbridge is creeping out this way. I expect to mix some with this thing if recent years are any indication but I'm definitely less worried than if I lived further SE. I honestly hope this thing comes to be and we all score! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 I thought 6z gfs looked a little more progressive with system although I couldn’t really sleep tonight just from being giddy with excitement so I may be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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