Snowchaser Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:51 AM, yoda said: I mean this is just silly Expand Only 12'' for me in Cville Dam it lol. Solid 30'' west of D.C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:19 AM, snowfan said: Do you have a 2020version of those 1963 maps? One day they'll update their product. Expand Omg they’re still using the same maps I was looking at in the weather station at PSU in 1997. Anyone got the Nogaps and NGM while we’re at it??? I remember how frustrating those things were when a MB marking was blocking something you needed to see. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:50 AM, yoda said: Expand 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Gotta watch how far the primary gets north. Too far and it can make the transfer too far east and north. That’s about all that can screw us as the high does look very good. I want it further west to help squash that primary so be fun to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:55 AM, psuhoffman said: Omg they’re still using the same maps I was looking at in the weather station at PSU in 1997. Anyone got the Nogaps and NGM while we’re at it??? I remember how frustrating those things were when a MB marking was blocking something you needed to see. SMH Expand LOLLLLL god the Nogaps was so bad it would have the storm near the Bahamas two days before and then would all of a sudden jump 800 miles nw and get a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Damn Yoda. I am feeling shafted only getting 27 on that snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ErinInTheSky Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Oh my god, am I going to experience my first real snow storm since moving here in 2016? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 12, 2020 Author Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:57 AM, clskinsfan said: Damn Yoda. I am feeling shafted only getting 27 on that snow map. Expand Fringed? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 3:28 AM, jaydreb said: I’m kind of dreading the 0z runs to be honest. Nowhere to go but down. Expand Ok, I maaaayy have been overly pessimistic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:56 AM, WEATHER53 said: Gotta watch how far the primary gets north. Too far and it can make the transfer too far east and north. That’s about all that can screw us as the high does look very good. I want it further west to help squash that primary so be fun to follow Expand Yeah. I was concerned about that earlier today as well. Also with it being east it was allowing howling southern winds in the upper levels. Keep that HP further west and we are golden. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:55 AM, psuhoffman said: Omg they’re still using the same maps I was looking at in the weather station at PSU in 1997. Anyone got the Nogaps and NGM while we’re at it??? I remember how frustrating those things were when a MB marking was blocking something you needed to see. SMH Can't believe they can get everyone vaccinated but they still use an atari 2600 to produce model maps 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:26 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Truth be told the Canadian isn’t much of a model Expand What?! First the icon, now the cmc too? Argh 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:41 AM, nj2va said: I thought I remember Bob last year talking about how GEFS were known to just follow the OP in lock step. Anyone know how the ensembles have been performing since the upgrade? Expand The previous version of the GEFS was extremely underdispersive, but the new GEFSv12 has way more spread. That was one of the strengths of GEFSv12 noted in the summary presentations on the evaluation web page: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/ (It also helps that 10 additional members were added.) If most members agree something at day 5, that's a much bigger deal in the new version. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:56 AM, Amped said: Expand This was my thundersnow King with about 10 flashes, real muffled and wierd thunder sound in heavy snow. Sometimes thunder but no flash . 1” in 10 minutes, 3” in 60 minutes. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:59 AM, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I was concerned about that earlier today as well. Also with it being east it was allowing howling southern winds in the upper levels. Keep that HP further west and we are golden. Expand That for me is the caveat and the trend to watch. CMC further west GFS ICON a little further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:00 AM, high risk said: The previous version of the GEFS was extremely underdispersive, but the new GEFSv12 has way more spread. That was one of the strengths of GEFSv12 noted in the summary presentations on the evaluation web page: https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/meg/gefsv12/ (It also helps that 10 additional members were added.) If most members agree something at day 5, that's a much bigger deal in the new version. Expand Thanks for responding and sounds like a great upgrade. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:00 AM, WEATHER53 said: This was my thundersnow King with about 10 flashes, real muffled and wierd thunder sound in heavy snow. Sometimes thunder but no flash . 1” in 10 minutes, 3” in 60 minutes. Expand Heaviest I've ever seen it snow over a long sustained period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Its always a good thing when the Carolina forum starts to get excited about the possibility of iceLarry Cosgrove 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:59 AM, clskinsfan said: Yeah. I was concerned about that earlier today as well. Also with it being east it was allowing howling southern winds in the upper levels. Keep that HP further west and we are golden. Expand The Primary low looks to develop over Panama City Beach Florida.. the one in TN doesnt seem to be the dominate one anymore 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 This is usually when the Euro drops a turd in the punch bowl, just as hype is growing. 3 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Updated WPC odds at Day 5 now have 95 corridor in 50% contour of 0.25”+ frozen QPF. NW of 95 is 70%. Bullish for 5 days out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:04 AM, PhineasC said: This is usually when the Euro drops a turd in the punch bowl, just as hype is growing. More north and warmer incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:03 AM, 40westwx said: The Primary low looks to develop over Panama City Beach Florida.. the one in TN doesnt seem to be the dominate one anymore Expand The stronger HP is a big part of that. It cant cut into it. But you know that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:06 AM, WxWatcher007 said: I think it'll hold steady tonight. It's been the most amped and I don't see it coming down with everything else seemingly trying to catch up. Expand Right. Euro has been the warmest of the models so far. GFS and CMC have shown all snow for DC. Euro has had more mixing and temp issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Do we get any of those black and white 1980's maps for Euro early? Just show me the same setup as the Canadian had and I can go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 4:57 AM, clskinsfan said: Damn Yoda. I am feeling shafted only getting 27 on that snow map. Expand You should move east. I’m near 30. It’s not uncommon for MBY to be in the jackpot zone. Happens quite often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Much slower moving storm than what was shown 24 hours ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 On 12/12/2020 at 5:10 AM, BristowWx said: You should move east. I’m near 30. It’s not uncommon for MBY to be in the jackpot zone. Happens quite often. Expand The next time I move east it will be to OC full time. Then my snow tracking days are going to be very limited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baltimorewx Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Yikes. This is looking good. I’ve already had too much to drink but need to stay up for Euro now. Tomorrow won’t be pretty. I was very hesitant on this system, it was a late bloomer to start but now there’s gulf moisture to it and the good 50/50 and the high in Canada to boot. It has went from a questionable set up to an almost perfect set up as we stand now. Give me good runs by 12z tomorrow and I’m all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wizard021 Posted December 12, 2020 Share Posted December 12, 2020 Looking like president's day 1 http://meteocentre.com/reanalyses/get_reanalyses.php?lang=en&mod=ncep&area=na&yyyy=1979&mm=02&dd=19&run=12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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