December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mattie g]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Your rain obs won’t deter them from knocking back a glass of bourbon and doing snow angels in powder. 

But at least I can feel good about *trying* to piss in their cornflakes.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

Not until you know what happens

FYP

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Wonder when DT will get in here.  Be curious to hear his take.  

I think he said he is working the mid shift this week. So he is probably sleeping. 

[LeesburgWx]

So, if it ends up raining after all of this, is winter cancelled?

[Thanatos_I_Am]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

So, if it ends up raining after all of this, is winter cancelled?

why ask a question you know the answer to? 

[BristowWx]

9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ll tell you what. It feels good to see so much joy on the boards right now. 

The pbp has been awesome.  Nothing like it when things are looking up. Kept hitting the refresh.  Waiting for that pesky GLL to show up and shit in our beer. That is the true grim reaper

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, this is what I've seen as well.  Haven't spent the time to figure out quite why that pattern is there.

A more amplified Monday wave would suppress ridging along the east coast some. Maybe that helps get a cleaner transfer sooner. Or maybe more amplified runs are just more amplified across the board lol 

[Weather Will]

Sterling NWS discussion

Broad surface low pressure will near the Ohio Valley early
Wednesday morning as the next upper trough/low tracks into the
Great Lakes Region. Low pressure along the Southeast coast will
begin to trek northward up the coast at the same time.
Precipitation should begin to overspread the CWA from south to
north later Tuesday night. Could be a little faster than
previously indicated. The potential for a more widespread wintry
solution exists with this system with the cold air at the
surface and low pressure tracking northeastward from the
Carolinas and off the Delmarva Peninsula. This system bears
watching as phasing or intensification near the Outer Banks
could mean the difference between chance or likely rain or snow
to likely or definite snow with accumulations as far east as the
I-95 corridor.

[PhineasC]

Almost forgot what a big storm looks like for this area. Been a while since one even appeared on the models. 

[DTWXRISK]

.

 

[mappy]

I dont fall into a category  

[JakkelWx]

lol on the border of all rain and starting as ice.

[clskinsfan]

40% chance of 10+ is bullish for 5 days out. I like it. 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

@psuhoffman I know you said yesterday the outcomes for Monday and Wednesday seemed unrelated. But seeing guidance move in lockstep for both storms today has me wondering... 

 

1 hour ago, Winter Wizard said:

If there is any relation, I would maybe think a weaker, flatter system Monday would allow for a stronger Atlantic ridge to build ahead of wave 2. Would need to take a closer look and see if there's an impact. 

I looked at the EPS members. There is a relationship.
 

I identified the 7 most amplified members for Monday and 6 of them had the most south/cold solution for Wednesday. Those 6 had the axis of heaviest snow south of DC. Some were a total miss south. The 7th had a weird all NS solution with not much of a storm anywhere. 

Inversely the 11 members that I pulled as being flat and weak Monday had the warmest north solutions Wednesday. 9/11 were north of the mean Wednesday. And the 2 most suppressed Monday members were by far the most extremely north members Wed. 

Obviously this isn’t scientific but it seems on the Eps anyways a more amplified system Monday leads to a colder solution Wednesday.  Less obvious is any correlation to the amplitude or organization of the Wed storm. There were amplified but qpf producers in both camps. Some weaker in both. But the warm/cold correlation was like 90%

[BristowWx]

3 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

lol on the border of all rain and starting as ice.

I’m straddling orange/purple.  Muy bueno!

[RickinBaltimore]

In the orange band? What the heck I'll take it.

[40westwx]

10 minutes ago, DTWXRISK said:

I live just outside of Baltimore on the west side of town... basically where interstate 70 and the Baltimore Beltway intersect.. how much snow do you think I will get?

[nj2va]

I'm likely heading to Deep Creek for this one -- happy to not be in the mix zone for a change.

[Snowchaser]

DT BULLISH AF

[CAPE]

7 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

lol on the border of all rain and starting as ice.

Looks an awful lot like the Euro lol.

Although it gives us some back end snow.

[Winter Wizard]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

I looked at the EPS members. There is a relationship.
 

I identified the 7 most amplified members for Monday and 6 of them had the most south/cold solution for Wednesday. Those 6 had the axis of heaviest snow south of DC. Some were a total miss south. The 7th had a weird all NS solution with not much of a storm anywhere. 

Inversely the 11 members that I pulled as being flat and weak Monday had the warmest north solutions Wednesday. 9/11 were north of the mean Wednesday. And the 2 most suppressed Monday members were by far the most extremely north members Wed. 

Obviously this isn’t scientific but it seems on the Eps anyways a more amplified system Monday leads to a colder solution Wednesday.  Less obvious is any correlation to the amplitude or organization of the Wed storm. There were amplified but qpf producers in both camps. Some weaker in both. But the warm/cold correlation was like 90%

Thanks for checking on that, seems to be in line with my hypothesis. The closer the timing between the two systems, the more of a relationship there will be. 

[psuhoffman]

@DTWXRISK

JK nice map

[mappy]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@DTWXRISK

JK nice map

I do want to know though  

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

I'm likely heading to Deep Creek for this one -- happy to not be in the mix zone for a change.

Should be an awesome spot. Worst case you know wisp is gonna be making feet of snow with the cold air. 

[aldie 22]

So does ice storm mean sleet?

 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, CAPE said:

Looks an awful lot like the Euro lol.

Although it gives us some back end snow.

That’s a first guess.  Could easily trend better and you might take advantage of the departing low bombing to your east.  Hopefully we all get something out of this. 

[H2O]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@DTWXRISK

JK nice map

I’m in the red shirt color. We all know what happens to the guys in the red shirts 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, H2O said:

I’m in the red shirt color. We all know what happens to the guys in the red shirts 

Do you at least have a name on the script or do they just refer to you as "ensign#3" 

[mappy]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

I’m in the red shirt color. We all know what happens to the guys in the red shirts 

your character isn't important enough. you're going to die 5 minutes in. (hope you get the movie quote)

[BristowWx]

That spot in N MD is where the all 3 streams cross...we know what happens then..