clskinsfan Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That map is just silly. That’s a perfect inversion of what an ice map would look like. Expand Yeah. We arent icing while DC is snowing. Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Lets also keep in mind that cold air damning is always underestimated by the models until under 48 hours. Somebody would get alot of ice with that I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:45 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That map is just silly. That’s a perfect inversion of what an ice map would look like. Expand The individual members don't really even show much ice, maybe it's just seeing the snow panels + rain panels and splitting the difference? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:48 PM, ryanconway63 said: Lets also keep in mind that cold air damning is always underestimated by the models until under 48 hours. Somebody would get alot of ice with that I would imagine. Expand Not with 850’s below zero. Now if they are above, then nobody south and east is getting snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 It's really really really nice to be tracking some kind of actual threat within a week in December. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:50 PM, Cobalt said: The individual members don't really even show much ice, maybe it's just seeing the snow panels + rain panels and splitting the difference? Expand Yes. It’s not an ice setup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Big takeaway from the 12z GEFS is that only 2 members show a miss, and about 7 show mostly rain. Just about every other run is a nice hit from I-95 NW. Even Baltimore City and DCA get accumulating snow. A good shift overal. Hope the UKMET and Euro agree. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:51 PM, Steve25 said: It's really really really nice to be tracking some kind of actual threat within a week in December. Expand fyp Speaking of which, is this the last time we've actually been tracking a potential WSW event in the medium range since March 20-21 2018? The Jan storm wouldn't count since all positive trends were basically short range. Even March 20-21 didn't verify, so maybe the last one since Jan 2016?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I don't believe the GEFS, since significant freezing rain rarely pans out in my experience (December '93 Philly area being a major exception). On Wednesday, it is likely going to be white rain or snow, and I am betting on snow. Cheering for the Euro to nod along at 12Z with the CMC, and to a lesser extent the GFS (which fringes me a bit out west here). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I95 jackpot depending on traffic 3 1 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:40 PM, IronTy said: I need to change my underwear. Expand I purposely wasn’t wearing any when I looked at the maps. I can’t afford that many pairs. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:53 PM, Cobalt said: fyp Speaking of which, is this the last time we've actually been tracking a potential WSW event in the medium range since March 20-21 2018? The Jan storm wouldn't count since all positive trends were basically short range. Even March 20-21 didn't verify, so maybe the last one since Jan 2016?? Expand Jan 2019 verified WSW for a good chunk of the area 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:35 PM, mappy said: PSU fringed on the double digits Expand Ratios! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:00 PM, WxUSAF said: Jan 2019 verified WSW for a good chunk of the area Expand Don't ya mean the southern chunj DC definitely...but Baltimore north? Fell just short (BWI literally measured 4.8"--so it was trolling with being .2 inches shy of verification, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:00 PM, WxUSAF said: Jan 2019 verified WSW for a good chunk of the area Expand True, but we entered NAM range thinking it would be a 2-4/3-5" event. All of the big trends were short range. What I meant was a storm that we could track all the way from med range knowing we have a good shot at WSW criteria for a decent chunk of the subforum. Kind of a niche way to describe it, but just thought it was interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:53 PM, losetoa6 said: Ukmet is more progressive and weaker with the coastal low for Wed fwiw. Expand Think that's a fairly big adjustment on the crazy uncle? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:02 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Don't ya mean the southern chunj DC definitely...but Baltimore north? Fell just short (BWI literally measured 4.8"--so it was trolling with being .2 inches shy of verification, lol) Expand I had over 11". That evening band stopped just a few miles east of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:03 PM, WxUSAF said: I had over 11". That evening band stopped just a few miles east of me. Expand Yep like I said...the southern chunk. It was a good HoCo MoCo DC event...we never got too much heavy banding up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TowsonWeather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:38 PM, Scraff said: Lol. I thought of him as I hit submit. We need him back one day soon. Expand Wait...what happened? Where'd he go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 In case anyone is wondering GDPS on the pivotal weather plot is the acronym for the operational "Canadian" model. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:30 PM, mappy said: I'd feel so much better if the Icon was onboard Expand Moderator, moderate thyself!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:50 PM, Cobalt said: The individual members don't really even show much ice, maybe it's just seeing the snow panels + rain panels and splitting the difference? Expand Wow, that is so much better than yesterday! Impressive! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:13 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Moderator, moderate thyself!! Expand I've been told I need to loosen up and have more fun. So, I'm trying! 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:14 PM, mappy said: I've been told I need to loosen up and have more fun. So, I'm trying! Expand you go ahead and do you!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 With the high centered to our north, we look to have sufficient cold air at the surface as the energy from the low to our west transfers to the coast and precipitation overspreads the region Wednesday morning. The potential for a more widespread wintry solution exists with this system with the cold air at the surface and low pressure tracking northeastward from the Carolinas and off the Delmarva Peninsula. Still plenty of time to watch this one at Day 6, but certainly bears watching given the above. For now, am advertising rain/snow mix east of the Blue Ridge, with snow the favored ptype to the west Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40westwx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:16 PM, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: With the high centered to our north, we look to have sufficient cold air at the surface as the energy from the low to our west transfers to the coast and precipitation overspreads the region Wednesday morning. The potential for a more widespread wintry solution exists with this system with the cold air at the surface and low pressure tracking northeastward from the Carolinas and off the Delmarva Peninsula. Still plenty of time to watch this one at Day 6, but certainly bears watching given the above. For now, am advertising rain/snow mix east of the Blue Ridge, with snow the favored ptype to the west Wednesday morning through Wednesday evening. Expand yeah the placement of that HP is exactly what we need. There is not a ton of Cold Air around but I really wasnt surprised when I saw the GFS trend colder this last run. The ensemble support is very encouraging. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 with the trends thus far does anybody worry that the bullseye pushes to far south and east? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:25 PM, ryanconway63 said: with the trends thus far does anybody worry that the bullseye pushes to far south and east? Expand No. The confluence isn't strong enough to blow this into the Carolinas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:25 PM, ryanconway63 said: with the trends thus far does anybody worry that the bullseye pushes to far south and east? Expand There are at least 100 ways for this area to get screwed. No sense focusing on just one such scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 5:25 PM, ryanconway63 said: with the trends thus far does anybody worry that the bullseye pushes to far south and east? Expand There are all KINDS of worries.. We are modeling way too far to get the specifics figured out. The jackpots and rain/snow lines can adjust radically.. we just are watching trends and excited when it snows in our back yards.. Details are coming! The consistency is a great sign! The pattern looks great! But we live in a fickle area that can break hearts quickly! But i get the concerns! We do not want any bad trends! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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