stormtracker Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:11 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Quick aside: regardless of its odds of actually happening, should we start a thread for Monday its more clear what is being talked about where? Expand Go ahead, you can start the rainstorm thread. I'll pin it. 3 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:11 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Quick aside: regardless of its odds of actually happening, should we start a thread for Monday its more clear what is being talked about where? Expand I was about to suggest the same thing. Getting a bit jumbled in here (but it's awesome to have that problem! ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:11 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Quick aside: regardless of its odds of actually happening, should we start a thread for Monday its more clear what is being talked about where? Expand maybe after the euro? i hate starting threads too early. we jinx ourselves far too much around here. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Let's see what Dr No says before a thread on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:13 PM, stormtracker said: Go ahead, you can start the rainstorm thread. I'll pin it. Expand i don't want that bad juju on me! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 winter storm warning criteria Event. Not the dreaded travelors advisory 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:12 PM, stormtracker said: Hot tower Expand Eyewall reconstruction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 DONT START A THREAD 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter Wizard Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:10 PM, Eskimo Joe said: Yup. We're getting into the Euro's wheelhouse. If it trends towards the GFS through Sunday, then man we might have some hope. FWIW, doesn't look like the GFS is warm through Christmas so this snow might stick around for a bit. Expand Agreed, key difference I see is Euro is much weaker with the PNA ridge, which hinders the SW from amplifying as much, causing it to cut west. Hopefully that feature trends toward the GFS. FWIW, 0z EPS looked a bit better than the operational. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 What is the upper limit on this storm if it does snow? 4-8"? 8-12"? Appears to be a quick mover but the trends here are nice for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 GFS evolution is just textbook for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Gorgeous. Look at how it's trended with the cold push out WEST over the Plains. Follow the 522 or 528 height lines in this gif. That push keeps the primary low from amplifying to our west. It can't get north, so it stays weak until it transfers energy to the coast. THIS IS WHAT WE WANT. This is nearly as important as having cold air in place east of the mountains. 6 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:15 PM, LeesburgWx said: What is the upper limit on this storm if it does snow? 4-8"? 8-12"? Appears to be a quick mover but the trends here are nice for sure. Expand Very doubtful to get a foot of snow out of this. 6-8” maybe but will need cold temps the whole time otherwise it will be more wet and heavy which will have lower totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Jason and I will have a post on it coming up. Right now we're playing the probabilities for various accumulations lower than suggested by the eps POPS or GFS as there were lots of different evolutions shown on the ensemble stamps. Plus, we're 4 days out and we live around DC. 13 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:16 PM, WxUSAF said: GFS evolution is just textbook for a Mid-Atlantic snowstorm. Gorgeous. Look at how it's trended with the cold push out WEST over the Plains. Follow the 522 or 528 height lines in this gif. That push keeps the primary low from amplifying to our west. It can't get north, so it stays weak until it transfers energy to the coast. THIS IS WHAT WE WANT. This is nearly as important as having cold air in place east of the mountains. Expand That HP getting back over MN is nice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:15 PM, LeesburgWx said: What is the upper limit on this storm if it does snow? 4-8"? 8-12"? Appears to be a quick mover but the trends here are nice for sure. Expand HECS lol. Well, that's my wishcast. In reality, probably 8-12 if it cranks. Just moves too quickly. Need it to slow down and a bit earlier transfer would help. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:19 PM, H2O said: That HP getting back over MN is nice Expand Yup, all part of the same process. We don't want the HP outrunning the low. Want the HP on top of the LP like a hat. Maybe a bit ahead of the LP. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:11 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Quick aside: regardless of its odds of actually happening, should we start a thread for Monday its more clear what is being talked about where? Expand No. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:22 PM, Eskimo Joe said: No. Expand No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:30 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: Fyp @ravensrule ... how'd I do sensei? Expand Those are the best feeling kind of storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Oh baby that 12Z GFS gets me in on the action. I'm sorry I ever doubted you GFS, I take it all back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 GGEM incoming 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 HOLY SHIT!!!! CMC 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:14 PM, midatlanticweather said: Let's see what Dr No says before a thread on Monday. Expand Dr no just talked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:27 PM, WxUSAF said: GGEM incoming Expand cranking! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I'd feel so much better if the Icon was onboard 1 1 16 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:30 PM, mappy said: I'd feel so much better if the Icon was onboard Expand ???? Looking good to me 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:30 PM, mappy said: I'd feel so much better if the Icon was onboard Expand I would need a map to approve as well! I will keep banter to a minimum! But you are on a roll today! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 CMC snowmaps incoming? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Well the 12z GFS just caught up to last night’s CMC. Tonight’s GFS should catch up to this afternoon’s CMC. Looks like CMC is leading the way! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 4:32 PM, WxUSAF said: ???? Looking good to me Expand Still shows snow for me On 12/11/2020 at 4:32 PM, midatlanticweather said: I would need a map to approve as well! I will keep banter to a minimum! But you are on a roll today! Expand First real threat we've had in a while, good to be fun. Once a thread gets made (NOT TODAY), we will keep banter to a minimum. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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