December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[SnowLover22]

1 minute ago, LP08 said:

Through 93, better confluence pressing down over the NE on the 12z GFS.

PNA ridge is looking better out west. 

[Winter Wizard]

At hour 90, looks like the ridge out west is stronger. 

[mattie g]

At 96, GFS CAD signature looking better this go 'round, as well. It's been doing this multiple runs in a row now.

[LP08]

Better dig of the SS SW.  A little slower as well and as others have said, better ridging out west.

[SnowLover22]

Just now, mattie g said:

GFS CAD signature looking better this go 'round, as well. It's been doing this multiple runs in a row now.

yup the heights in the NAO domain are looking better. Could be why. 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z OPS GFS looks colder at 850 through HR 104. Better CAD signature.

[SnowLover22]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

12z OPS GFS looks colder at 850 through HR 104. Better CAD signature.

Take a look at this. Pretty good look I would say. 

[Scraff]

Incoming nuke looks eminent...

[SnowLover22]

[Eskimo Joe]

(on ncep site) At HR 114, 850s are -6 to -10 N&W of US 15. 0 degree isotherm down the RIC.

[SnowLover22]

Heavy snow DC at 123 hours.

[mappy]

GFS is a nice hit for many at 120

[LP08]

Never lose 850's north of EZF through 126.

[Eskimo Joe]

To my eye, the 12z GFS OP is a good run for everyone N&W of I-95 for the 12/16 storm. Legit advisory criteria immediate I-95 and possible warning event for the the usual jackpot spots.

[Rhino16]

C’mon, shift south a bit. I don’t want ice. I want floofy, heavy, back breaking snow. I liked the 0z CMC...

[SnowLover22]

1 minute ago, SnowLover22 said:

Heavy snow DC at 123 hours.

.7 precipitation looks to be all snow for DC.

[mappy]

Even @JakkelWx is cold enough!

[jaydreb]

GFS looks just like last night’s CMC.  Nice cold run.  Beautiful.  

[Paleocene]

Freezing line at hour 126, at the surface, basically parallels I-95 south of baltimore. 850s line runs through charles, anne arundel, queen annes

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Beautiful panel at 126.  Perfect evolution.  Let's go!!!!!!!

[Eskimo Joe]

12z OPS GFS kills the primary low in Tennessee this round. By HR120 the coastal low is popping off Hatteras. Also has a 1034mb high in Quebec instead of Newfoundland. This is a good shift. Hope the GEFS moves this way too. Onto the 12z Euro.

[nj2va]

That's basically a textbook setup/evolution for the mid-atlantic.

[Scraff]

Who got the keys to the bus!? 

[Winter Wizard]

12z GFS is a pretty solid improvement. Stronger PNA ridge allows the SW to become more amplified while the confluence in the east allows for a stronger push of cold air. End result at the surface: a solid hit for most N and W of I-95 verbatim. Hopefully the Euro can come on board at 12z. 

 

[Snowchaser]

Looks like heavy snow cville points north. Ice storm central/southern VA.

[Yeoman]

10 minutes ago, Winter Wizard said:

At hour 90, looks like the ridge out west is stronger. 

amped?

[Cobalt]

Taken with obvious med/long range grain of salt, but the trends on both the GEFS and the GFS have been really nice to say the least. 

[ryanconway63]

Are we trending toward a more Miller A type storm?

[stormtracker]

50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Literally laughed out loud in class with students looking at me like I’m crazy

It's funny because it's true.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Winter Wizard said:

12z GFS is a pretty solid improvement. Stronger PNA ridge allows the SW to become more amplified while the confluence in the east allows for a stronger push of cold air. End result at the surface: a solid hit for most N and W of I-95. Hopefully the Euro can come on board at 12z. 

Yup. We're getting into the Euro's wheelhouse. If it trends towards the GFS through Sunday, then man we might have some hope. FWIW, doesn't look like the GFS is warm through Christmas so this snow might stick around for a bit.