Buddy1987 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/10/2020 at 11:54 PM, CAPE said: Unless one simply likes hand wringing over details of a singular op run 5+ days out, love this panel and live for the next model cycle. Expand Which one would you personally put your money on for down this way based on model guidance. I was more or less transferring all my eggs to Wednesday but Euro and GFS keeps me interested for Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:03 AM, Buddy1987 said: Which one would you personally put your money on for down this way based on model guidance. I was more or less transferring all my eggs to Wednesday but Euro keeps me interested for Monday. Expand Why not both? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 It is December 10. I grew up inside the DC Beltway and am used to no snow until late January if I was lucky. Patience. Or like me move N & W.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:03 AM, JakkelWx said: Why not both? Expand Still not overly enthused about Monday for our area, but it isn't dead. The mid week period holds more potential, but plenty of details to be resolved. In short, we simply cannot know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/10/2020 at 11:50 PM, osfan24 said: Aren't most of our big storms Miller B's anyway? Miller A's seem like unicorns these days. Expand That can get way in the weeds because people argue over the definitions. Is a miller B any storm that goes up west of the apps and jumps? Only northern stream systems that jump and develop. Some mix? Where does it go from A to B? Most storm jump somewhere. Actually all storms jump since pressure centers are always redeveloping. But those jumps are often minor. So when a gulf system gets into GA then jumps to off the Carolina coast we don’t say anything. When a storm jumps from Ohio to off VA that’s a bit more significant so it gets a different classification. I don’t really like to waste time arguing about definitions and terminology. So it just depends. Rule is the more STJ dominant the better. Further south the transfer and or phase the better! Closer to a miller A the better. But a pure miller A is rare. And even those rules aren’t 100% March 2013 we had a northern stream handoff that jumped so far south due to an Uber block that we got screwed and the heavier banding set up by Richmond. Everything is a matter of degrees. Everything depends on lots of variables. Even the perfect track depends on how mature and deep the low is and the thermal profile around it. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:08 AM, CAPE said: Still not overly enthused about Monday for our area, but it isn't dead. The mid week period holds more potential, but plenty of details to be resolved. In short, we simply cannot know. Expand Is the midweek storm your typical Miller B? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:09 AM, Wonderdog said: Is the midweek storm your typical Miller B? Expand Recent runs seem to be moving away from that idea. Stay tuned! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/10/2020 at 11:50 PM, osfan24 said: Aren't most of our big storms Miller B's anyway? Miller A's seem like unicorns these days. Expand hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 When does the 18z euro come out? I’m curious to see what it says about Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Wasn’t PD II a hybrid? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:18 AM, losetoa6 said: HH euro a bit colder at the surface at 87 hr. Expand What about precip? Without it it doesn’t matter how cold it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:18 AM, losetoa6 said: HH euro a bit colder at the surface at 87 hr. Expand And how far out does it go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 Not sure if Feb 2010 was also a hybrid. There were two lows, one off the OBX and another near West Virginia but I still don't think it fits. I'm guessing just because there are two lows doesn't make a hybrid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:09 AM, Wonderdog said: Is the midweek storm your typical Miller B? Expand I think we need the primary in TN/KY..OH no bueno for our latitude. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:32 AM, losetoa6 said: HH Euro definitely colder .Lower Hieghts out in front definitely helped. Lot less interaction with the ns . Maybe a good thing in this case Expand We suffer from lack of cold more than lack of precipitation. This is good news I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:29 AM, BristowWx said: I think we need the primary in TN/KY..OH no bueno for our latitude. Expand You can still get thumps, but I agree for major snows that is where you want it with hybrids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 WB EURO hour 90. Seems a little slower. That has to affect things later in the week... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:37 AM, Weather Will said: WB EURO hour 90. Seems a little slower. That has to affect things later in the week... Expand For me, I see very little chance that a low near Atlanta can somehow slide straight out to sea. At least I think we’d get precip with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:44 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: For me, I see very little chance that a low near Atlanta can somehow slide straight out to sea. At least I think we’d get precip with that. Expand Tend to agree. Probably a glancing blow but something. That precip map shows you need heavier precip and dynamical cooling to get some snow. Timing of the shortwave relative to the cold air is also key. Want things a little slower. Seems HH euro did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:37 AM, Weather Will said: WB EURO hour 90. Seems a little slower. That has to affect things later in the week... Expand Depends. There wasn’t much correlation on the GEFS members between the two systems. I checked. There is enough separation (as of now). I think the mid week threat is more dependent on the high/confluence and the interaction of the STJ with the NS. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 12:44 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: For me, I see very little chance that a low near Atlanta can somehow slide straight out to sea. At least I think we’d get precip with that. Expand It would head straight for Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 MON DEC 14 looks like a cold rain to me... the 850 mb is cold enough but 925 and surface temps are way too warm even in the mountains 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/10/2020 at 11:54 PM, CAPE said: Unless one simply likes hand wringing over details of a singular op run 5+ days out, love this panel and live for the next model cycle. Expand again very much like 12z euro//eps again east coast storms EURO leading with consistency 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 1:03 AM, DTWXRISK said: WED DEC 14 looks like a cold rain to me... the 850 mb is cold enough but 925 and surface temps are way too warm even in the mountains Expand Even in the mountains?! What are you smoking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/10/2020 at 10:14 PM, Weather Will said: WB GFS 18Z. Coastal low not as organized? Expand its the 18z GFS dont care... WHY? LOOK at the 18z GEFS ... the differences between the OP GFS and the 18z GEFS are significant which tells me that the op GFS is still not getting it 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 1:03 AM, DTWXRISK said: WED DEC 14 looks like a cold rain to me... the 850 mb is cold enough but 925 and surface temps are way too warm even in the mountains Expand Wed or the 14th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/10/2020 at 7:42 PM, Snowchaser said: I’m feeling solid about this storm upcoming in Cville. I think we all have a great chance of seeing 3”+ Expand yes ... CANT wait to move there in March 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 1:08 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Wed or the 14th? Expand dec 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 On 12/11/2020 at 1:07 AM, Snowchaser said: Even in the mountains?! What are you smoking? Expand dec 14 look at the data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 11, 2020 Share Posted December 11, 2020 I’d say these are good locations per the 18z EPS for Wed/Thursday 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now