aldie 22 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: Sage Wrong holiday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 12z JMA for ji of course. The LP doesn’t come from the best spot, but the signal is there. HP showing up in SE Canada is of course a big deal for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Couple of non expert observations. It is not going to snow in the next five days. Take a deep breath and let’s see how it looks by Sunday for the period leading up to the holidays. Trying to dissect every model run beyond five days all winter will drive you crazy. Secondly, the torch pattern anticipated by many for the second half of December appears to be at least delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 CMC ensembles agree with the OP, alright back to work! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: 12z JMA for ji of course. The LP doesn’t come from the best spot, but the signal is there. HP showing up in SE Canada is of course a big deal for us. That 1040 HP just north of Ogdensburg is definitely a "big deal" if the LP tracks through southeast Va.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 MJO plots are all over the place because there are multiple waves sending conflicting signals...but it seems day 10-16 the wave out near the dateline becomes more prominent on the GEFS. That would be helpful tropical forcing for a change. The mean plot shows phase 6 because a wave back near the MC and the one near the dateline are battling each other in the means. But if the forcing near the dateline is dominant that may explain the change to a more favorable look. Or it's just a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Interesting to see how this evolves in the time period of interest near mid-month. Continued signs of HL blocking persist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, stormy said: That 1040 HP just north of Ogdensburg is definitely a "big deal" if the LP tracks through southeast Va.. I prefer Massena but its splitting hairs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 @psuhoffman Liking the AAM tendencies and what they portend. I feel we can get a rather robust - NAO in the weeks ahead. Might coincide with an improving Pac and a growing cold air source to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: that's legit...not some bootleg transient ridge...straight -NAO...no chaser. And it really starts to build in the short range not some unicorn long range fantasy. At least a moderately strong -AO is already building in now so it'll greatly increase the chances of a stable NAO block verifying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Nice signal on the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Approaching the make or break period IMHO. Past few winters (or lack of), when model mahem appeared in December the final result sort of dictated the base state the rest of the winter. I know things can turn on a dime at any point but generally we establish things in the period approaching. If we can actually get some of these ull tellie looks to pan out and not be a tease, we should be in businesses this season with ample chances. We know what happened with these teaser looks past years. Fingers crossed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I wouldn't automatically attribute anything to just one factor without a lot more research and data. It could be the solar minimum. Or maybe its something else and its just a coincidence. Or maybe the solar minimum is just a part of the equation and there are other factors contributing also. There are way too many variables to just pin it on one thing. If it was that easy forecasting wouldn't be so difficult. Yeah I can understand that perspective...on the other hand, IF the -NAO is true, I find it mighty strange how we haven't had winter one for almost a decade (basically since the 2009-10 with only maybe one other case)...and then all of the sudden we get one after a minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 This look towards the end of December has changed for the better during the past 5 day period. Have not seen today's though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 thats the other thing with fantasy snow....we can never get it to show up for 2 runs in a row 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: thats the other thing with fantasy snow....we can never get it to show up for 2 runs in a row Check the eps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, LP08 said: Xmas Eve storm? LOCK IT UP almost @CAPE avatar lol December 2009! 2020 redux, Nina style? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah I can understand that perspective...on the other hand, IF the -NAO is true, I find it mighty strange how we haven't had winter one for almost a decade (basically since the 2009-10 with only maybe one other case)...and then all of the sudden we get one after a minimum. We had a period of NAO blocking in 2013. Didn’t do is much good. Also a pretty good period in 2016 but it was cancelled in the means by extreme +NAO periods. Also March 2018. Blocking has been rare lately yes. But there are enough examples not to automatically assume its solar. I’m not saying it’s not. Just that we can’t say for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: If you get just enough blocking it sets off a chain reaction that reconfigured a Nina look into a workable one. What I found was we actually do ok in a Nina if we have a cooperative AO/NAO. Problem is that’s not all that common. Nina tropical forcing tends to favor a +NAM state more often then not. But in cases where we do get help up top it can snow in a Nina. Two questions: 1) What other examples outside of 1995-96 where we did okay in a nina because of what you just mentioned? 2) Speaking of 95/96...was some record -AO/-NAO the reason why it worked? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Eric Webb is a pretty big warminsta: 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 34 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice signal on the eps Details or pics? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 42 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice signal on the eps 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Details or pics? Lol it’s a Miller B signal. Congrats Bahstan. Maybe there are some nice hits in the individual members, not sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 15 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Not bad Would that be a clipper/NS dominated pattern if that verifies verbatim? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Summarizing the Eps snow maps for the midweek storm next week: 3 ggem like monsters, 5-6 modest events. A few suppressed solutions which I don’t mind at D7. More chances interior unsurprisingly. Looking at MSLP, can’t tell if the Miller B look is from 2 camps (one cutter and one coastal) or if these are doublebarreled lows which would scorch our BL temps. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 i feel like we keep driving the ball to the 35 yard line and keep missing 52 yard field goals 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just now, Ji said: i feel like we keep driving the ball to the 35 yard line and keep missing 52 yard field goals Thankfully still got 7 minutes left in the first quarter. 11 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Lol it’s a Miller B signal. Congrats Bahstan. Maybe there are some nice hits in the individual members, not sure. YES DEF MILLER B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 58 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Eric Webb is a pretty big warminsta: HUGE DEVELOPMENT IF THIS VERIFIES 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 36 minutes ago, Paleocene said: Not bad GEFS for the same timeframe. Look awfully similar from a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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