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December Medium/Long Range Discussion


yoda
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1 hour ago, PhineasC said:

I started to take it as a really bad sign that climo is super hostile to snow down there now when it seemed like the models couldn't even bring themselves to show digital snow. We were just so far off from what was required to get a good snowstorm that model errors and biases couldn't even get it done. When I look at the GFS and Euro for MD now, it is such a dreadful snoozefest.

I do think climo is getting more hostile, whether that is a shorter or longer term trend I dont want to start that debate here, but the last couple years also skewed that worse because we haven’t been in a favorable pattern too often. Models are getting better. When were in a really awful pattern they shouldn’t show fantasy snow. Go back to March 2018 and Dec 2018/Jan2019 the last time we had a decent pattern and there was lots of fantasy (and some actual) snow. 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Xmas 6z Gefs 

0DBB2850-C85D-4885-A7B4-0966E1ECCD81.thumb.png.64e07744d28bee3f0e00eff91a58888a.png
 

Potential in the NAO region and a negative NAM state will present opportunities certainly much better than last year at this time,  we're heading in the opposite direction hopefully from where we were during the middle of December 2019.

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Ukie at 144. Has same idea but would likely be warmer with less confluence than cmc has over SE Canada. That would be the big question if this shortwave is legit. As you can see though we have some minor blocking over Greenland which is pinching the cold air south over SE Canada, get that farther and it’s game on

0C7262E0-5D12-4973-BFF8-BCD7919CD0BA.gif

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