psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: I am generally of the belief that we ultimately need some decent PAC periods to have success this winter. I keep saying it, but I have more faith in a favorable EPO period than a blockbuster NA saving us from a persistently crappy Pacific. I would have agreed a month ago. But the AO/NAO seem to want to play nice at times so far. This upcoming pattern is one that would probably work ok if it repeats in January or February. It could work out now but it had a better chance the deeper into winter we get. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I still think the gfs is all over the place when you get out to about 7 days with regard to the small scale 500 features. Hard for me to place faith in it. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 14 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: In your research were you just including WSW events or both WWA and WSW snows . Just curious. I can remember dozens of 1-3" snows myself in November/December. They r much easier to come by as you know. I think most here would take an inch . Definitely harder to get a 4-8" region wide hit before Christmas. Hopefully it hits on Xmas eve or Xmas day For my full study only warning level. I did look at more snowfalls a while ago for Nina specific years...I think I started the cutoff for that at 2". You have to draw the line somewhere...there are way too many 1-2" type events to do a deep analysis of all of them. At least when I am not getting paid for any of this and have to do it on my own very limited time. If I was getting paid to do it I would gladly analyze every cartopper we ever got and break down the pattern. But honestly, its kinda a pathetic state of affairs that we are drooling over the thought of 1" of snow anyways...back when I started the study I was looking at "significant" snowfalls. Due to our lack of any snow at all recently what we call "significant" may have changed since then lol. ETA: including a lot of 1-2" events also would skew the results quite a bit since you can luck into those in a pretty mediocre or bad pattern sometimes...so you end up getting not very useful results. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I would have agreed a month ago. But the AO/NAO seem to want to play nice at times so far. This upcoming pattern is one that would probably work ok if it repeats in January or February. It could work out now but it had a better chance the deeper into winter we get. Ha...that's gonna be funny...I think if they were to be favorable for a change this winter...I mean we gotta look at the solar minimum effect again, don't we? (Especially for the -NAO that has been absent since, well...the effect of the LAST solar minimum) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 28 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: @DT_WXRISK about to come in here and make lobster salad out of you... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just now, Scraff said: @DT_WXRISK about to come in here and make lobster salad out of you... K Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 A step in the right direction. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Icon leaving alot of energy behind at day 4 . Edit: Hour 132 looks like frozen incoming yep, snowing good by 135. Love it when something trackable shows up in the medium range. edit: somehow slides away? But still an okay event for DC verbatim. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 GFS looks totally different from ICON at 132. No frozen but could be close to something. It pops a low but too far offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Boy that would be a kick right in the nuts if a track like that verified on the Icon and we get a cold a** rain at 38. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Ggem with a ton of snow all around us lol but nothing for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Ggem with a ton of snow all around us lol but nothing for usFrustrating Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Ggem with a ton of snow all around us lol but nothing for us Frustrating Why are you frustrated by digital snow? (But then you complain when there isn't any...what gives, dude?) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Why are you frustrated by digital snow? (But then you complain when there isn't any...what gives, dude?) Lol Ji always complains no matter what. The forecast could be for 1 to 2 feet of snow and he would complain about getting 15 inches because the mixing line got too close or Bob Smith had 18 inches 4 miles to his NW. He even complains about the models taking away his snow... like if the Euro gave him 7 inches on the 00z run and then nothing at 12z... he would post about losing his 7 inches of snow. But it's how Ji is... so ya gotta roll with it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Lol Ji always complains no matter what. The forecast could be for 1 to 2 feet of snow and he would complain about getting 15 inches because the mixing line got too close or Bob Smith had 18 inches 4 miles to his NW. He even complains about the models taking away his snow... like if the Euro gave him 7 inches on the 00z run and then nothing at 12z... he would post about losing his 7 inches of snow. But it's how Ji is... so ya gotta roll with it lol I just wanna know why man, lolol I'm starting to wonder if even he knows why... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: I just wanna know why man, lolol I'm starting to wonder if even he knows why... Ji is the kind of character you'll just have to get used to. Even winter 2009-10 wasn't cold enough nor long lasting enough to please him, even though Snowmageddon gave him almost 3' of snow. Most likely it's an act, but the most we can do is speculate. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 @frd There often is a lag time to enso's effects and so I am less optimistic than DT that a rapidly declining cold enso will help us much before March. But...it's a pretty small sample size of rapidly declining cold enso episodes and so it is hard to draw much of any conclusion. He could very easily be correct. I hope he is. I do think march is a wildcard either way. Many Nina's that were totally garbage up until March featured a cold/snowy period in March. It is not universal...1989, 2008, and 2012 were all in the analogs I compiled to this year and were wall to wall garbage winters with no help in March. But 1956, 1976, 1999, 2017, and 2018 all featured a turn to colder with some snow late. I guess "unsure" would be the best way to categorize my feelings on what impact a rapidly collapsing nina will have on our snow chances. Can't hurt though. What I would bank on more then that is simply getting some good high lat blocking before then and not having to wait for a March save. We have scored some good snow periods in Jan and Feb in a Nina but we needed blocking to do it. That's why the current signs up top are so encouraging imo. @CAPE @losetoa6 It's been quite a few years since I did my nina study, I think it was before 2017, so I wanted to refresh my memory. I also expanded my snow study to include all 2" or greater storms at BWI in Dec-Feb during Nina's that peaked at -.1 or greater since 1950. I excluded March because that is kind of a wildcard in a Nina and that is a long way off. Let's hope we aren't heading into March needing to avoid a disaster. Even expanding down to 2" I only found one storm out of 23 (and it was a kinda pathetic 3" to rain) during the 11 moderate or stronger Nina seasons that didn't feature a lot of high latitude help. It is true that a lot of those storms did feature a period of less hostility on the pac side also...but the fact there are almost no examples of even minor snows without blocking to me indicates the break in the pac puke pattern was an effect of the blocking helping to press the TPV out of western Canada or Alaska where it will tend to set up shop and sit otherwise as a response to the central pacific ridge which is a direct effect of the nina. But get a block somewhere in the AO or NAO domain and you can squeeze that feature out of there just enough...retrograde or squash the pac ridge temporarily, and make it work. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 Euro looks... interesting... 998mb just west of OBX at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 Wish that HP in Quebec was more like 1034... then we'd be in business lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 Lol 6 level contour closed h5 low 144 in northern SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 boom Ji will be happy... naw who we kidding 3 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 150 and 156... sign me up on the dotted line please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: boom Ji will be happy... naw who we kidding Looks like it gets kicked east after going over OBX at 144 to 156 because of another s/w back in the Plains at h5 at 168... right? And we would want that right? Or am I reading this all wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 @losetoa6 so for anyone interested in what our snow profile looks like during all snowstorms of 2" or greater during a Nina that peaked at -1 or lower...(this year probably bottomed out around -1.3 This is the composite of all those storms at BWI 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Going to be a lot of shifts with this...obviously. Would suck to go from cutter to whiff because we don’t have proper spacing. ICON/EURO combo is always a winner in the model lotto It's nice to have the Euro on our side... for at least this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 This was the one anomaly where it did not feature any high latitude blocking...a 3" snow to rain event in January of 1989. But it did feature one of the craziest atlantic bombs I've ever seen which acted as a substitute for a block. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 9, 2020 Author Share Posted December 9, 2020 *hides behind the Force* 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 The rest featured some form of high latitude blocking...some of the more memorable storms or periods in this set... 2 storms during the holiday period in 1970. One a minor event, the second a 4-8" storm around the cities and more NW. an 8" storm in Dec 1973 a 6" storm in Feb 1974 I don't think I need to bother posting the 1996 look.... 3 storms over 10 days in January 2000 The psuhoffman storm and a minor event before it 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 23 minutes ago, yoda said: Looks like it gets kicked east after going over OBX at 144 to 156 because of another s/w back in the Plains at h5 at 168... right? And we would want that right? Or am I reading this all wrong? You are analyzing details on a 150+ hour op run way more than I will. There is a threat. That is all there is to say at this point. Details will bounce around a lot. But it's going to be a fine line. There isn't a whole lot of wiggle room here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 WB EPS control at Day 7....if this verifies, I would call it a winter.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now