Snowchaser Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Euro run #17 looks tasty for the peeps around D.C. for storm on the 15th. Interesting to see what the 0z runs will show. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, jaydreb said: How does this storm on the Euro dump 7+” in Alabama and then get warmer as it moves north? its 2020. You really needed to ask..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just parsed of home team ens runs and was not bothered (comparing to last year). I'd lock them in as currently depicted and see what shakes out. MUCH better curvy line orientations and colored blob placements. I'll throw some house money in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 45 minutes ago, Ji said: ive seen worse but ive seen better @Yeoman If this one doesn't work out, there's always another behind it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: If this one doesn't work out, there's always next year FYP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GFS D12 is interesting. All caveats apply of course but this is a nice H5 setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, losetoa6 said: HH delivers per Gfs. Almost twice in 10 days dammit ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: HH delivers per Gfs. Almost twice in 10 days Day 8 close to a CAD setup and a hit day 10 WB 18Z GFS...fringed. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GFS and a stupid GL low! That thing always causes problems. BUT, I put no stock in any of this.. as @Ji can attest! I must not believe anything.. I will jinx it. Interesting nonetheless.. lots of time for failure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS...fringed. Ji would cut his wrists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS...fringed. If it weren't for the fact it was the GFS rather than the Euro showing this, DT would have already started threads in no less than 3 subforums. 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS...fringed. Wow look it's a day 10 storm. I've not seen one of those before on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 No shortage of blocking in this op run....just a matter of time until we get our digital snow. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 21 minutes ago, IronTy said: Wow look it's a day 10 storm. I've not seen one of those before on the GFS. I totally didn't see that last December either! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, JakkelWx said: I totally didn't see that last December either! Sounds like a legit threat then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB 18Z GFS...fringed. Just where we want it, as they say...whoever they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 54 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Agree. I personally liked the whole run . Multiple chances with only subtle changes needed . Not saying this winter is going to be a blockbuster by any means but at least so far, its vastly different than last year in that we at least have workable looks. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 10 minutes ago, CAPE said: Just where we want it, as they say...whoever they are. Doesn’t matter because it won’t go down exactly like any op at that range but given that h5 I would expect that storm to adjust north some anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: Not saying this winter is going to be a blockbuster by any means but at least so far, its vastly different than last year in that we at least have workable looks. Better looks, but same results so far. It's super early though. The next few weeks will be telling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 4 minutes ago, nj2va said: Not saying this winter is going to be a blockbuster by any means but at least so far, its vastly different than last year in that we at least have workable looks. The NAO and AO are trending the exact opposite way from this time last year. That’s one way to offset hostile pacific forcing. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Better looks, but same results so far. It's super early though. The next few weeks will be telling. Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling as we head later in Dec or better into January and February it should work out a few times 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The NAO and AO are trending the exact opposite way from this time last year. That’s one way to offset hostile pacific forcing. Run the GEFS trend function on that timeframe for the last few days and watch the NAO ridge push in and lower heights along the east coast. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling as we head later in Dec or better into January and February it should work out a few times Agreed. December 2005 and 2009 were exceptions in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling into January and February it should work out a few times I am generally of the belief that we ultimately need some decent PAC periods to have success this winter. I keep saying it, but I have more faith in a favorable EPO period than a blockbuster NA saving us from a persistently crappy Pacific. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Early to mid December is really not a good time to try to rely on the Atlantic to offset the pac. When I broke down all our snows that was rarely how we got our December snowfalls. We really need the pac to cooperate early. But imo if we can keep this general idea rolling into January and February it should work out a few times ^This. We had pretty much 2 epic winters in a row (13-14, 14-15) with Pacific cooperation (-EPO) and zero AO and NAO cooperation. Why? Because everything is moving west to east on our side of the hemisphere. When you have garbage coming in from the PAC side, you are screwed even with a good AO/NAO under a latitude of about central New England, all it’s doing is trapping the garbage coming off the Pacific.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PivotPoint Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 1 hour ago, SnowLover22 said: GFS D12 is interesting. All caveats apply of course but this is a nice H5 setup. This is the time frame I mentioned couple days ago. It’s interesting to me because of the storm prior to this (15/17th) seems to consistently be there run-to-run. Making for some blocking. However, the ridge out west is all over the place each model run and is super key to this recipe coming together. I think the odds are That the ridge out west flattens out and this cuts. But there’s a chance if we can get inside the weekend and it’s still in some form on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: I am generally of the belief that we ultimately need some decent PAC periods to have success this winter. I keep saying it, but I have more faith in a favorable EPO period than a blockbuster NA saving us from a persistently crappy Pacific. Agreed. The Pacific sets up the incoming trajectory. If it's coming from a bad angle, we're kinda cooked from the start. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 I still think the gfs is all over the place when you get out to about 7 days with regard to the small scale 500 features. Hard for me to place faith in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 Also something to consider is the fact that the Euro, CMC, Icon all have a major storm in the southeast US on Monday morning. The gfs has nothing. Literally nothing. I don’t trust that either. So I can’t trust its forecasts after that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 9, 2020 Share Posted December 9, 2020 At least the models are pretty set on an active pattern for the next couple of weeks. Better than having nothing to track at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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