WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: CMC has a storm in the same window, FWIW. CMC just has some weak ass GL low otherwise it’s a big snow to rain event. Pretty interesting 12z suite so far 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: CMC just has some weak ass GL low otherwise it’s a big snow to rain event. Pretty interesting 12z suite so far Euro had a storm then too. Meanwhile the gfs has literally nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, WinterWxLuvr said: If we had that pattern the entire winter we probably would end up happy when it was all over. 12z ops continue to show enough subtle changes that I was seeing yesterday wrt mid term to inspire some confidence in a legit window being opened mid/late next week. Thats as far as I'm looking for now (wrt Op/ens guidance). I dare say i'm liking what i see (keeping all disclaimers of climo/base state etc in mind.) Looks normalish and in this bass ackwards year of 2020, I'm all about normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 GEFS at the end of its run isn’t terrible. I would be willing to roll the dice with this look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 12z Euro says congrats Alabama. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: 12z Euro says congrats Alabama. Energy transfer off Chincoteague at the same time. Storm should generate it's own cold air after that. Locked and loaded! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 days to will it south and colder and slower and snowier and stronger.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 CAD event on the 12Z GFS for the Shenandoah Valley for the 18th. Jumps from southern WV to off OC. Decent HP over the top. We can do OK out here with those sometimes. Front end thump to dry slot. At least it is something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 How does this storm on the Euro dump 7+” in Alabama and then get warmer as it moves north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 hours ago, WxUSAF said: CMC just has some weak ass GL low otherwise it’s a big snow to rain event. Pretty interesting 12z suite so far Trend has been more -NAO which keeps us in the game wrt storm track. We will be fighting the lack of cold due to the less than ideal pacific though. If we could keep this pattern into January/February (of course no way to know if we do) I feel like something would work out sooner or later. So long as we don't start seeing signs of the NAO going super positive like last year I feel like we have a better shot this year of avoiding a dumpster fire. Everyday that I don't see a wall to wall blue ball up top across the whole EPO/AO/NAO domain I take as a positive. Keeping in mind my bar for this year is pretty low. ETA: Last year I never even bothered to get my snowblower out of the shed and prep it for the winter. I was pretty sure I wasn't going to need it. This year I moved it into the garage and tuned it up. Not saying I expect to be using it a lot...but I have a feeling it might be needed at least once. At least more of a chance than last year. Or maybe I am just telling myself that because the thought of leaving it collecting dust in the shed 2 yeas in a row is too painful to face. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: How does this storm on the Euro dump 7+” in Alabama and then get warmer as it moves north? because its 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 just aggravating that we cant even get fantasy snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Just now, Ji said: just aggravating that we cant even get fantasy snow Since the opposite usually works out I think we're in good shape 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, LP08 said: 7 days to will it south and colder and slower and snowier and stronger.... We dont really need to adjust the track so much as the temperature profile. The upper level features track perfect for us. The reason the surface ends up so far north and vertically stacked like that relatively early in its progression is the lack of any cold air. The surface low will try to seek out the baroclinic zone. Lacking one it will end up further north than it would in a colder baroclinic profile. Trust me...adjust the thermals and that surface low would be tracking perfect for us given the rest of the variables on that run. Is the adjustment we would need to the thermals possible at that range...yes. Very. It's well within a normal error. But of course it could just as easily adjust warmer. The bigger issue would be does the progression of the longwave pattern even look close to that by 162 hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, Ji said: just aggravating that we cant even get fantasy snow Almost as aggravating as you complaining about it 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: How does this storm on the Euro dump 7+” in Alabama and then get warmer as it moves north? Because it’s wrapped up cutoff from the flow. SE ridge flexing its muscle a tad too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 5 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Since the opposite usually works out I think we're in good shape 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Long way out, lots will change, just happy to be in the game. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 34 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GEFS at the end of its run isn’t terrible. I would be willing to roll the dice with this look. Its a slight adjustment from a very good pattern actually. If there is just a bit more NAO ridging...the resulting effects would lead to a good look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: just aggravating that we cant even get fantasy snow At least we have something to track...last year didn’t even give us that. Could be worse brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 It would be nice to have the weekend system be stronger and faster and perhaps get a little high pressure to our northeast. That would help give us a bit of a cad signature which wouldn’t hurt at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: Energy transfer off Chincoteague at the same time. Storm should generate it's own cold air after that. Locked and loaded! Ask coastal new england how that worked out for them 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 43 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GEFS at the end of its run isn’t terrible. I would be willing to roll the dice with this look. I was thinking the same. Workable look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Its a slight adjustment from a very good pattern actually. If there is just a bit more NAO ridging...the resulting effects would lead to a good look. Very interesting it’s sort of heading back to a nino like look again with Aleutian low and west coast ridging. Have to watch and see if that continues. Either way, it’s good we don’t get a black hole over AK it seems. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I was thinking the same. Workable look. looks feasible while still being achievable.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 50 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Long way out, lots will change, just happy to be in the game. That sounds reasonable if not practical 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 WB 12Z EPS. Let’s see how it trends over the next week... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. Let’s see how it trends over the next week... ive seen worse but ive seen better @Yeoman 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z EPS. Let’s see how it trends over the next week... 12, 15, 17, or 31 would really calm the room 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, Ji said: ive seen worse but ive seen better @Yeoman At least it's not a day 15 forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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