Ralph Wiggum Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 hours ago, Ji said: 7 hours ago, psuhoffman said: What were your expectations? Even like a fantasy storm that last for 2 runs would be ok Then you would complain about how bad the models are and how they tease you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 7 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said: I find that lower expectations don't completely erase disappointment with an outcome. Last winter's futility still sucked even when it was clear that it was a no-go. However...more level-headed expectations do help fight off wild emotional swings. With this being a nina...I'm trying to just take it as it comes with that in mind (yeah I'm still hopin' for somethin' deep down, lol) I have a possible solution for you. I recall that when I experienced my first major snowstorm in the mid to late 50's in South Jersey; that was when I first became very interested in weather. I made a half-arse weather vane: learned about clouds, wind direction, local conditions, etc. Of course back then there was no radar, satellite images, etc. and of course no computer models. But I think knowing what is probably coming ten days to two weeks down the road in our area can be especially depressing and tends to suppress hope. Seems like back when we didn't have all the advancements in weather forecasting that we enjoy now, there was a lot less angst. And no, this is not an indictment against progress. So if you must look at the models, don't go past 6 days. Even if on day six, there's a developing storm in the GOM and a cold front is approaching. And just hope. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 11 minutes ago, osfan24 said: GFS is quite active as well, but it doesn't really help how active these models are if there is no cold air. The continuous, almost reliable knowledge, that high precip event are going to arrive shortly regardless of any five day period of dry weather has been going on for almost 24 months. You could make the case that in many of these high impact events, warmth was behind the reason why we achieved such a high precip in the first place. Active use to be a good indicator that eventually as we move deeper into winter the wet becomes white, but in this new base state this is yet another association that has lost value. That goes along with soil moisture as well . You can have a trough in the East and it can still rain in the heart of winter. Very frustrating too regarding recent storm tracks that favor areas North of us. I believe the SST pattern in the North Atlantic may have something to do with this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 There will be opportunities to chase at the very least. 6z GFS drops 12-24”+ through the run in the mountains 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 3 minutes ago, nj2va said: There will be opportunities to chase at the very least. 6z GFS drops 12-24”+ through the run in the mountains You have a guest room? I can pay with craft beer. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Extended GEFS and EPS both show the craptastic PAC we knew was right around the corner. But...that look has a notable difference from last year or just a few weeks ago, imo. Without the monster, stable NPAC ridge this could leave the door open for a PNA ridge to pop ever now and again. With the smoothed LR anoms, this could be just what the models are showing. Add in a cooperative ATL.....possible help from the strat and I am cautiously optimistic. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 6 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Extended GEFS and EPS both show the craptastic PAC we knew was right around the corner. But...that look has a notable difference from last year or just a few weeks ago, imo. Without the monster, stable NPAC ridge this could leave the door open for a PNA ridge to pop ever now and again. With the smoothed LR anoms, this could be just what the models are showing. Add in a cooperative ATL.....possible help from the strat and I am cautiously optimistic. With ensemble means you get that zonal look out in time. I know you know this. So with that in mind that slight bit of western NA ridging and the broad trough across the US is an encouraging look IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, CAPE said: You have a guest room? I can pay with craft beer. Just give me a space in the yard to pitch a tent. A real tent, RR. The kind you sleep in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Early January would be a nice time for this if it happens and we see the pay off. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 16 minutes ago, poolz1 said: possible help from the strat and I am cautiously optimistic. There is hope. The look you posted puts pressure on the PV. May even improve the NAM state. And, we have all talked already about how the Atlantic may want to play this year in our favor, at least at times. There is growing evidence of a SSWE and even a possible reversal of zonal winds. Yes we want a weaker PV, not a beast, and yes we want HL blocking, but the eventual outcomes as it relates to our area, ( colder, snowier ) is really difficult to forecast. Do we experience a split, where does the PV re-locate to? We talked about this last year and the year before. Many times other areas of the NH benefit leaving us out of the severe cold and snowstorms. Granted, I will take my chances and see what develops in the weeks ahead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 19 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Early January would be a nice time for this if it happens and we see the pay off. I think it should be noted 2 things. 1, ssw generally gives the blocking and cold to 2 of the 3 continents, so someone is left out. Also, a ssw doesn't guarantee blocking and cold anywhere. It has to co couple with the troposphere for the effects to materialize. Think back to jan 2019, big ssw early in the month but it did nothing because it never worked down to the troposphere. That was the year the weeklies kept showing this epic cold pattern week 3 onward, while it would of been correct if the ssw worked down to the troposphere, it never did that and well we know what happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 45 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Just give me a space in the yard to pitch a tent. A real tent, RR. The kind you sleep in. Yea sure, I believe you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 22 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: It has to co couple with the troposphere for the effects to materialize Always an issue of timing as HM mentions, and yes coupling is indeed vital. One could speculate this year has a less hostile profile, possibly enabling an increased probability of coupling regarding the SSWE. Talk remains about the effect of last year's tropical fires upon the stratosphere. Seems the 15 th of this month, and the period just after, is key as to what may, or may not transpire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 27 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: I think it should be noted 2 things. 1, ssw generally gives the blocking and cold to 2 of the 3 continents, so someone is left out. Also, a ssw doesn't guarantee blocking and cold anywhere. It has to co couple with the troposphere for the effects to materialize. Think back to jan 2019, big ssw early in the month but it did nothing because it never worked down to the troposphere. That was the year the weeklies kept showing this epic cold pattern week 3 onward, while it would of been correct if the ssw worked down to the troposphere, it never did that and well we know what happened. Yup. Hence the “if” in my post Its a roll of the dice, but it’s one I’d take every time. Doubly so in this year when otherwise background forcing sucks. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 45 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: The weekend system has evolved from a huge cutter wayy west from days ago to now a cad setup for New England and possible N. Pa . Curious to see how this effects the next follow up system. Eps hr 120 What does the op 6z euro run to? Curious what H5 looks. I’d imagine with a colder flatter look there the follow up wave might have more room to occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Regarding the cryosphere, it is looking better with more NH snow cover, while Canada is getting colder. Hopefully, this has a role in January with direct cold air discharge when the pattern becomes more favorable . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: With ensemble means you get that zonal look out in time. I know you know this. So with that in mind that slight bit of western NA ridging and the broad trough across the US is an encouraging look IMO. And the very end of the 6z GEFS run looks like this. Western ridge amplifies and sends a chunk of cold southward. I Have seen worse looks on Christmas eve. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 @CAPE calling for a white Christmas. I like it! 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @CAPE calling for a white Christmas. I like it! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: And the very end of the 6z GEFS run looks like this. Western ridge amplifies and sends a chunk of cold southward. I Have seen worse looks on Christmas eve. If we had that pattern the entire winter we probably would end up happy when it was all over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Pretty sure last December 8 th this was going up, but I am old and can't totally recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 13 minutes ago, frd said: Pretty sure last December 8 th this was going up, but I am old and can't totally recall. Yes. By this time last year, it was clear we were headed to a record low snowfall winter. This year people are jumpy after having nearly 3 consecutive shut outs years. With that said, the AO is definitely trending in a better direction and while it's been some shots of cool air, we aren't in a sustained 50s to 70s in December. There is absolutely nothing worse than 60s on Christmas in the mid latitudes (well except for 34 and a driving rain). 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 20 minutes ago, frd said: Pretty sure last December 8 th this was going up, but I am old and can't totally recall. EPS keeps the AO and NAO at least slightly negative through the end of the run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 Winter storm watch time for the east coast 14-15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 9 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Winter storm watch time for the east coast 14-15th Move that thing 50 miles SE and everyone wins. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 congrats Northern Loudoun County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 we might see some real fantasy snow on the GFS @psuhoffman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: we might see some real fantasy snow on the GFS @psuhoffman fail but close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 46 minutes ago, Snowchaser said: Winter storm watch time for the east coast 14-15th CMC has a storm in the same window, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 8, 2020 Share Posted December 8, 2020 The gfs after day 7 is all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now