December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[CAPE]

34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Given where we live I find his general pessimism to be grounded and realistic.  It sucks for snow 90% of the time here. 

I am not at all pessimistic about what I see in general.

I made an objective post about what the GEFS was advertising vs the EPS. But I get the subtle trolling. I do it too- and sometimes they don't get it. 

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am not at all pessimistic about what I see in general.

I made an objective post about what the GEFS was advertising vs the EPS. But I get the subtle trolling. I do it too- and sometimes they don't get it. 

I was referring to your general overall tone. But my point was what some call pessimism is simply realism and knowing our climo.  If they want smoke up their arse they can read JB. Either one. 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I was referring to your general overall tone. But my point was what some call pessimism is simply realism and knowing our climo.  If they want smoke up their arse they can read JB. Either one. 

Yeah well, I definitely know mine here, and it ain't good for snow most years. 

 

[aldie 22]

12 minutes ago, CAPE said:

I am not at all pessimistic about what I see in general.

I made an objective post about what the GEFS was advertising vs the EPS. But I get the subtle trolling. I do it too- and sometimes they don't get it. 

Some don't pay attention to the dynamic between certain posters....just a little brotherly ball busting...I knew you would get it

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, LP08 said:

There is definitely a window between say the 13-18 of a pretty decent pattern available.  After the cutter next week, there will be some fresh cold air to tap.  

12z GEFS looks a lot like this at this time. 

[CAPE]

26 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Low heights in AK are never ideal, but the ridging on the west coast combined with a pretty good Atlantic side make that a nice look. There’s also a bigger piece of the TPV farther east. If that TPV was over AK...it would be suboptimal.

GFS dumps all the energy into it at the end of the 12z run.

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS dumps all the energy into it at the end of the 12z run.

Yup, have to see what ensembles say. We don’t want to see that. 

[CAPE]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GEFS looks a lot like this at this time. 

Yeah that general window continues to hold some promise on the ens guidance. A couple days ago the GFS had a trailing wave along the cold front and gave us some snow around the 13th-14th I believe.

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, CAPE said:

GFS dumps all the energy into it at the end of the 12z run.

The Gfs is handling the whole setup up top and the mid lat response completely different from other guidance. Doesn’t mean it’s wrong. It was on an island a week ago wrt how it was rolling over the western Canada ridge and it turned out right. 

[DTWXRISK]

3 hours ago, Stormfly said:

More rain?

December is toast for us.

Unless you like making mud pies.

 Idiot comment 

[WxUSAF]

48 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup, have to see what ensembles say. We don’t want to see that. 

Eh, doesn’t dump the TPV in AK, but has it consolidated north of the Yukon with a trough in AK and -PNA. Either way, another Xmas torch.

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Eh, doesn’t dump the TPV in AK, but has it consolidated north of the Yukon with a trough in AK and -PNA. Either way, another Xmas torch.

20 days...could be right or...who knows 

[Baltimorewx]

3 hours ago, Stormfly said:

More rain?

December is toast for us.

Unless you like making mud pies.

I pretty much agree. I doubt anything happens before Christmas, so then there’s a week after that. Maybe somebody in the forum gets lucky with something but I doubt a widespread accumulating event is in the cards

[leo2000]

Mmm the EPS is suppose to tank the NAO negative which would fight the pac puke. 

[chris21]

7 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

I pretty much agree. I doubt anything happens before Christmas, so then there’s a week after that. Maybe somebody in the forum gets lucky with something but I doubt a widespread accumulating event is in the cards

We all know that climo is hostile to that idea in dec but without more meteorological reasoning I’m not sure what the point of all of these type of posts is.

[BristowWx]

Even if the GEFS looked great for Xmas week it would be folly to get excited...it looks crappy now but same applies.  Need to at least let it play out a bit. 

[CAPE]

Two differences I see in the advertised longwave pattern between the EPS and GEFS beyond the mid month period: EPS keeps some semblance of a -WPO(ridge) while the GEFS loses it, and EPS has a little better look in the NA, although not ideal. This keeps the the Pacific flow somewhat at bay, and allows the east coast to remain on the cooler side. Something to monitor going forward.

(I would have used the WB GEFS, but as usual WB always sucks in some way and its not available atm).

[clskinsfan]

22 hours ago, JakkelWx said:

It may seem like a wild fantasy, well, it is. For another 5 to 10 years at least. 2009-10 like years have a return period of every 20 years or so most likely. The least we can expect between now and 5 years is one like 2013-14 or 14-15.

What about the 40 inches I got in 2016?

And it is good to see DT back on here. 

And yes I am salivating on the mid December look. We have a REAL chance. Which is not something we could say over the past 2 winters.

[CAPE]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

What about the 40 inches I got in 2016?

And it is good to see DT back on here. 

And yes I am salivating on the mid December look. We have a REAL chance. Which is not something we could say over the past 2 winters.

I think he was referring to the winter as a whole, and for the MA region in general. 2015-16 was a torch with one decent week to 10 day period and one big storm, and  that was much better for the western burbs than the eastern. Not even remotely comparable to 2009-10, and we probably won't see another winter close to that in our lifetimes. I believe that was the general point he was making.

[Stormfly]

5 hours ago, DTWXRISK said:

 Idiot comment 

LOL I hope I am wrong, but as the saying goes trend is your friend.

[Ji]

I think he was referring to the winter as a whole, and for the MA region in general. 2015-16 was a torch with one decent week to 10 day period and one big storm, and  that was much better for the western burbs than the eastern. Not even remotely comparable to 2009-10, and we probably won't see another winter close to that in our lifetimes. I believe that was the general point he was making.

Well see a 09-10 again because it wanst a cold winter

[CAPE]

11 minutes ago, Ji said:

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

I think he was referring to the winter as a whole, and for the MA region in general. 2015-16 was a torch with one decent week to 10 day period and one big storm, and  that was much better for the western burbs than the eastern. Not even remotely comparable to 2009-10, and we probably won't see another winter close to that in our lifetimes. I believe that was the general point he was making.

Well see a 09-10 again because it wanst a cold winter

We will see plenty of warm, in all forms. We may never see the trifecta of moderate Nino, and wall to wall -AO/-NAO again though. The latter combo seems extinct, during DJF anyway.

[Ji]

Winter is

[mappy]

Just now, Ji said:

Winter is

 

[DTWXRISK]

On 12/3/2020 at 9:11 PM, DTWXRISK said:

This is a timing problem. If the southern  s/w  were  to come in more neutral or negatively tilted over Georgia then you would end up with a much stronger Coastal LOW and the potential for a surprise snowstorm in portions of Virginia and Maryland on Monday December 7.

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

Winter is

Nailed it

[Prestige Worldwide]

Maybe this will be the one

[Ji]

Maybe this will be the one

Or the one after

[PivotPoint]

23 hours ago, LP08 said:

There is definitely a window between say the 13-18 of a pretty decent pattern available.  After the cutter next week, there will be some fresh cold air to tap.  

AK trough rotates down and squashes our +PNA. It’s also a 240+hour frame so I personally wouldn’t bank on this general idea

23 hours ago, CAPE said:

Per the GEFS and GEPS, finally some below normal air in northern/central Canada mid to late month. Lets hope the trough over AK doesn't park there and deepen, and scour it all back out. Then we just need a mechanism to bring it southward.

Bermuda high is creepy back in a little more each GFS run. We’d need a stout HL block to prevent cutters each time the PNA relaxes.

I actually think the look for D5+ is marginal and trending worse, unfortunately.

What would be better is if the one eyed monster would vacate and the Atlantic cooperates. Then we can see sliders, clippers and maybe even an Mill-A 

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, PivotPoint said:

AK trough rotates down and squashes our +PNA. It’s also a 240+hour frame so I personally wouldn’t bank on this general idea

Bermuda high is creepy back in a little more each GFS run. We’d need a stout HL block to prevent cutters each time the PNA relaxes.

I actually think the look for D5+ is marginal and trending worse, unfortunately.

What would be better is if the one eyed monster would vacate and the Atlantic cooperates. Then we can see sliders, clippers and maybe even an Mill-A 

The EPS still shows a brief window around Dec 16-18 before the pac puke arrives if something can amplify before the cutter vacates the 50/50 region.  After that looks ugly. Silver lining is the Atlantic side stays ok. Unlike last year there are hints, including signs of a SSW, that the NAM might not be a complete lost cause this year. The pac looks a mess. I kind of assumed that was coming. But last year the Atlantic side was hostile too. That’s a no hope situation. If we get some Atlantic side help this year we should get some opportunities. It will still be a struggle and a fight. Nothing will come easy. But it’s not hopeless like last year.