Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 4 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Nice pics. With the Nina we knew a good winter was almost off the table. The signs the NAM state might not be as hostile this year leaves me hopeful we will have opportunities and this might be a more typical not great but not god awful Nina either. Hope you're right! Because the fact that we had to draw a nina card after last year's disaster kinda stings...hope we can fluke into something! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Hope you're right! Because the fact that we had to draw a nina card after last year's disaster kinda stings...hope we can fluke into something! It's all about expectations. Right now I would be ecstatic if we got a repeat of 2018 or 2019 and a lot of people were complaining all through those years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's all about expectations. Right now I would be ecstatic if we got a repeat of 2018 or 2019 and a lot of people were complaining all through those years. Oh no doubt...I think snow envy drives some of that complaining in those kind of years (at least for me anyway, lol Yet when we are snow-starved like we are now, you'd take even some 1-3" "scenery" snow! Anything is better than a complete shutout like last year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 JUST IN CASE YOU DID NOT NOTICE... since the time I left ... Oct /Nov 2016 we have NOT have BIG widespread northeast US snowstorms--- ya know like RDU/ GSO to BOS snowstorm big KU event we have been close a few times DEC 8-10 2017 Jan 3-5 2018 March 6-8 2018 DEC 12-13 2019 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Then we ask that we be released from the curse. Back you are 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Mid December signal still there on 0Z GEFS, EPS, and GEPS. I will be disappointed if DMV sees no snow by the 20th, but I have been disappointed before... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Eps tanks the NAO just enough to fight off the pac puke for a while. Fantasy land though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 55 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Eps tanks the NAO just enough to fight off the pac puke for a while. Fantasy land though. The OP 00z euro had a decent look day 10. Moderate HP wedged in could be a setup for a snow thump to rain type event. Obviously going to change though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Eps tanks the NAO just enough to fight off the pac puke for a while. Fantasy land though. GEFS doesn't and the lower 48 is all above normal by day 15. There are a few days of slightly below average temps mid month before the puke makes it to the east coast. All subject to change ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: Mid December signal still there on 0Z GEFS, EPS, and GEPS. I will be disappointed if DMV sees no snow by the 20th, but I have been disappointed before... 2 hours ago, Wentzadelphia said: The OP 00z euro had a decent look day 10. Moderate HP wedged in could be a setup for a snow thump to rain type event. Obviously going to change though There’s a lot to like on the D10 EPS. 50/50, -east NAO, weak +PNA, and cold air. That period next week is definitely one to watch. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: There’s a lot to like on the D10 EPS. 50/50, -east NAO, weak +PNA, and cold air. That period next week is definitely one to watch. Dare I say 12/19/20? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 I'm just glad C.A.P.E started ramping up his posting again once things started looking sour again 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 34 minutes ago, nj2va said: Dare I say 12/19/20? Yes please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 24 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm just glad C.A.P.E started ramping up his posting again once things started looking sour again I actually post less when things start to look like shit. At least for now. Still negotiating with the reaper. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormfly Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 51 minutes ago, nj2va said: Dare I say 12/19/20? More rain? December is toast for us. Unless you like making mud pies. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stormfly said: More rain? December is toast for us. Unless you like making mud pies. It’s dec 5th. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 minutes ago, Stormfly said: More rain? December is toast for us. Unless you like making mud pies. In NYC, ours sometime come pre-salted. As always .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, Stormfly said: More rain? December is toast for us. Unless you like making mud pies. The whole month is crunchy bread with butter? I guess 2020 we should expect that. I’ll have eggs over easy, bacon and a side of December please..thanks Flo! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 There is definitely a window between say the 13-18 of a pretty decent pattern available. After the cutter next week, there will be some fresh cold air to tap. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Per the GEFS and GEPS, finally some below normal air in northern/central Canada mid to late month. Lets hope the trough over AK doesn't park there and deepen, and scour it all back out. Then we just need a mechanism to bring it southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 If you want to see snow this week, head to North MA, NH, and most of ME, not Southern VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Pay increase this winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 5 hours ago, CAPE said: GEFS doesn't and the lower 48 is all above normal by day 15. There are a few days of slightly below average temps mid month before the puke makes it to the east coast. All subject to change ofc. Right now it’s EPS and GEPS v GEFS in the long range. The differences start pretty early (relative to long range) between the two camps so it should resolve soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 2 hours ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm just glad C.A.P.E started ramping up his posting again once things started looking sour again Given where we live I find his general pessimism to be grounded and realistic. It sucks for snow 90% of the time here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 43 minutes ago, LP08 said: There is definitely a window between say the 13-18 of a pretty decent pattern available. After the cutter next week, there will be some fresh cold air to tap. Pretty good look with the 50/50 low and a -NAO. I don’t think we like the low heights over Alaska though, right? We need those low heights further west to extend the PNA ridge up into Canada. I could be wrong though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, psuhoffman said: Right now it’s EPS and GEPS v GEFS in the long range. The differences start pretty early (relative to long range) between the two camps so it should resolve soon. Fingers crossed but we all know how it likely will play out. It is worth reminding everyone that December is not normally a snowy month.... Monthly DEC. average: DCA: 1.5 days or 2.3 inches. BWI: 1.7 days or 3 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 Just now, jaydreb said: Pretty good look with the 50/50 low and a -NAO. I don’t think we like the low heights over Alaska though, right? We need those low heights further west to extend the PNA ridge up into Canada. I could be wrong though. Yeah it’s not perfect by any stretch but there is some cold available even if it’s brief. Once that vortex parks over AK it will flood Canada with pac puke. But, it’s a window with a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 20 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Pretty good look with the 50/50 low and a -NAO. I don’t think we like the low heights over Alaska though, right? We need those low heights further west to extend the PNA ridge up into Canada. I could be wrong though. Long term that AK vortex is a killer. It will try to flood zonal pac air across the conus. It can be fought off sometimes temporarily if you have good atl blocking but even then it’s a struggle. But oddly enough a lot of our snowstorms feature a trough near Alaska. That’s because there is a lag effect of several days to a week before that feature kills us. But in the meantime the short term effect often opens up a window of opportunity here if there is some atl blocking. As the ridge response to that AK vortex crashes into the west coast often there is a temporary downstream trough in the east under the blocking. For a short time it actually can favor something amplifying along the east coast. It won’t last, that’s why a lot of our storms are followed by a warm up not long after, but there is often a short period of opportunity as that AK trough sets up before the pattern goes to crap. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 25 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Pretty good look with the 50/50 low and a -NAO. I don’t think we like the low heights over Alaska though, right? We need those low heights further west to extend the PNA ridge up into Canada. I could be wrong though. Low heights in AK are never ideal, but the ridging on the west coast combined with a pretty good Atlantic side make that a nice look. There’s also a bigger piece of the TPV farther east. If that TPV was over AK...it would be suboptimal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 5, 2020 Share Posted December 5, 2020 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Long term that AK vortex is a killer. It will try to flood zonal pac air across the conus. It can be fought off sometimes temporarily if you have good atl blocking but even then it’s a struggle. But oddly enough a lot of our snowstorms feature a trough near Alaska. That’s because there is a lag effect of several days to a week before that feature kills us. But in the meantime the short term effect often opens up a window of opportunity here if there is some atl blocking. As the ridge response to that AK vortex crashes into the west coast often there is a temporary downstream trough in the east under the blocking. For a short time it actually can favor something amplifying along the east coast. It won’t last, that’s why a lot of our storms are followed by a warm up not long after, but there is often a short period of opportunity as that AK trough sets up before the pattern goes to crap. Yep.... A window of opportunity, although short. looks to exist as you mention. Possibly even extended a couple of additional days. Afternoon EPS will be telling, looking for some consistency here. Your previous comments about the NAO domain and the Atlantic in general resonate some hope for us, versus a highly positive NAO state. Matt Hugo @MattHugo81 May not last as momentum falls in the coming days but -ve AAM (E'ly) anoms have popped up at 50N as highlighted by the green 'blob' - the troposphere is seriously not in the mood for producing W'lies/a zonal mid-latitude pattern at the moment & the sPV is getting knocked about... 3:31 AM · Dec 5, 2020·Twitter for iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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