Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 31 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Last year st this time we had come out of cold but useless November and the writing was on the wall that after 12/10 looked miserable. It was even worse than that so it’s great to have snow potential discussions moving forward Yeah ya gotta hope that maybe it's an opposite effect: mild November colder/snowier December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Factoring in 3 shortwaves to phase is likely going to reek haywire on the models. Would like to have a hit tonight or 6z on one global though. Especially that model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 22 minutes ago, LP08 said: NAM at 84 caveats apply...quicker scoot of this weekends storm. Phasing a little too late for everything to come together but it’s not far off. Gotta watch that western ridge. If it starts to breakdown/roll-over too soon this'll get pushed east and it's a NC/VA special. Some of the 18z GEFS members were showing some NC and VA snow solutions. But it's certainly close for watching for Northern VA and MD folk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Lol Ji will be complaining about radar and the back edge before first flakes and how it would have been 30” if it wasn’t moving so fast. If it’s wet snow Mdecoy will be whining it was only 4” on his road because he measures in the middle of the street. If it’s dry Eskimo will be telling us how half of it sublimated by noon the next day. Do I need to continue. Not anymore. I'll take anything. Especially if there's snow near Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 51 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: It surely will but I definitely put my trust in the op Euro when it comes to phasing. Hopefully overnight runs continue the trend. The op euro has been a little to phase/amped happy lately. Just throwing that out there. I would rather not be relying on the model that has been the most over amped of late being the only guidance showing a decent scenario right now. Everything else is very close, and trending the right way...just warning that the euro has been a little over done lately in the medium range recently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Damn that escaping low! Nothing up top to pull it up and back? Looks good for a storm blowing up though (next Monday/Tuesday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Icon shows a blizzard in e nc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Icon shows a blizzard in e nc Now that sounds believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Cmc snows on us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Gfs is an epic disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Cmc snows on us Speak for yourself. It basically hits a wall at the Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 Speak for yourself. It basically hits a wall at the Potomac. Yep and we will only get south shifts from here lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 I hate storms with no high. 2/15/2010 Fail 3/3/2010 Fail and most similar to Mondays setup IMO 12/26/2010 Fail 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 dont forget as a general GFS runs often dont handle STJ well 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 as we get closer to the event this dec 7 thing is getting bigger or more significant that is always a GOOD trend ... this threat is one of the threats I talked about on the NOV 29 newsletter 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Now that sounds believable. BLIZZARD? this time of year ssta are too warm ... but if one area could get fookign slammed from a bombing out SE LOW ...its eastern NC 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Amped said: I hate storms with no high. 2/15/2010 Fail Was this after the twin blizzards? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 14 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Was this after the twin blizzards? Yes we just got a few flurries and a dryslot. I think the NYC area and NE did quite a bit better. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0215.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 21 minutes ago, Amped said: I hate storms with no high. 2/15/2010 Fail 3/3/2010 Fail and most similar to Mondays setup IMO 12/26/2010 Fail of course having a high in a good spot is preferable. Our simplest path to snow here is overrunning. Anytime we get into needing a perfect upper level pass or phasing and all that jazz it gets complicated. We are a little too far south for all that to go easy for us...and often things come together just a little late for our latitude. But there are examples where things worked absent any real high. Off the top of my head the early Feb storm in 1995 had no high. I remember a storm in January 2001 I think where we got a decent snow with no high. The xmas day 2002 snow (our last true white xmas) had no high. The feb 2006 storm there was some really weak high in new eng but it was only like 1020 which is about what we have in this setup. There wasn't too much of a high, only like 1024 way up in Maine for the January 2011 storm. Sometimes we can work without. But yea it would make it a LOT easier with one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 4 minutes ago, Amped said: Yes we just got a few flurries and a dryslot. I think the NYC area and NE did quite a bit better. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0215.php Are you thinking of the Feb 21 storm? NYC got hit pretty good from that one. Some places in New England got some moderate totals from the Feb 15 2010 event. I think NYC had like 4"...but it wasn't that big a deal up there either. The Feb 21 storm though...that was a monster we just missed. But I had no issues with that...the whole period from late January to March kind of moved linearly imo. The block was at its strongest and healthiest in late January early Feb and each storm shifted a little north in progression from then on as the blocking slowly weakened. I agree the March 2010 storm has some similarity to this. It had two lobes diving into the trough and they ran interference on each other instead of consolidating the energy into one storm. This setup is somewhat similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 9 minutes ago, Amped said: Yes we just got a few flurries and a dryslot. I think the NYC area and NE did quite a bit better. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2010/us0215.php we would need there to be more separation then that there. There already is frankly on the guidance now but its still not quite enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Are you thinking of the Feb 21 storm? NYC got hit pretty good from that one. Some places in New England got some moderate totals from the Feb 15 2010 event. I think NYC had like 4"...but it wasn't that big a deal up there either. The Feb 21 storm though...that was a monster we just missed. But I had no issues with that...the whole period from late January to March kind of moved linearly imo. The block was at its strongest and healthiest in late January early Feb and each storm shifted a little north in progression from then on as the blocking slowly weakened. I agree the March 2010 storm has some similarity to this. It had two lobes diving into the trough and they ran interference on each other instead of consolidating the energy into one storm. This setup is somewhat similar. NYC get snow a little snowstorm on 2/15-2/16 and a huge one on 2/25-2/26 in 2010. I was mentioning the little storm on 2/15 cause it was a 500mb bowling ball that tracked right over us. It would have been another double digit dump if there was any sort of excuse for a high over New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 12 minutes ago, Amped said: NYC get snow a little snowstorm on 2/15-2/16 and a huge one on 2/25-2/26 in 2010. I was mentioning the little storm on 2/15 cause it was a 500mb bowling ball that tracked right over us. It would have been another double digit dump if there was any sort of excuse for a high over New England Well...yea but we didn’t even need a high simply not that trough suppressing everything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 AND W E GOT OUR SELVES A MID ATLANTIC SNOWSWTORM 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 6z WB NAM....Monday is something to monitor! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 4, 2020 Author Share Posted December 4, 2020 We have a thread for Monday FYI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 6 hours ago, Amped said: I hate storms with no high. 2/15/2010 Fail 3/3/2010 Fail and most similar to Mondays setup IMO 12/26/2010 Fail Good to see you decided to not change your posting style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 GFS sure wants no part of it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 4, 2020 Share Posted December 4, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: GFS sure wants no part of it Some on here have been saying the gfs has been performing best. I'm going with that solution....I'll also wait for bamwx to chime in. Amped has his finger on the pulse as well 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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