MillvilleWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Gfs looks promising at 192 with trailing energy in Texas It even gives me snow. I'll try to throw it your way 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 Not every day. 588 jeez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 45 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Good post, but one thing...I recall the opposite last year. The long range always showed shades of a great pattern, but would end up changing over and over...hopefully the look holds this time It's possible I missed some of that...once the big ugly pattern set it I kinda knew it was over and so I checked out pretty much. I would glance once in a while to see if there was any hope but there were days and days that would go bye without me taking more than a quick glance. But what I did see was more bad than good even out at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 4 minutes ago, frd said: Not every day. 588 jeez It seems that should be the holy grail of epic patterns. Screensaver pattern. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 45 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: are there specific analogs to it being a Nina but the atmosphere looking nothing like that. If so how did we do those years? So I guess the question is are there analogs to us doing well in Nina years because the atmosphere did not respond to what was expected. 1996 lol There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today. NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet. Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works. Way too early to draw any conclusions though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 25, 2020 Share Posted November 25, 2020 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: 1996 lol There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today. NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet. Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works. Way too early to draw any conclusions though. Don't get sucked in. Ha ha. Glad to see you posting. How you find the time is a mystery. I know your busy. We are dealing with some things that normally don't exist. or should I say coexist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: 1996 lol There were also a couple Nina's early in the 1900s that judging by the statistics definitely did not behave like what we consider a "typical" nina today. NOT saying that is what is happening here....yet. Many have pointed out the enso north pacific sst combo is very unusual so maybe a canonical nina isn't in the works. Way too early to draw any conclusions though. You have quite bit of knowledge and always seem to be less weenie...How do you think this plays out for December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 6 hours ago, NorthArlington101 said: EPS has consistently been further East. Will be interesting to see what wins. That would be rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Looking at the 850/2m temp anomaly at 384 on 18z GEFS looks like we need more help. It’s still mostly above normal just not way above normal. Just looking at it for trends there is hardly any really cold air in Canada to deliver even with a better h5 look. Maybe it will evolve over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Looking at the 850/2m temp anomaly at 384 on 18z GEFS looks like we need more help. It’s still mostly above normal just not way above normal. Just looking at it for trends there is hardly any really cold air in Canada to deliver even with a better h5 look. Maybe it will evolve over time. You might wanna focus on something other than the 384 hour forecast 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2020 Author Share Posted November 26, 2020 lulz... 00z GGEM says no snow for you, while the 00z EURO decides to go with a southern slider (re Dec 4-6). However, the 850s are cold enough Days 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 26, 2020 Author Share Posted November 26, 2020 yeah yeah Day 10 on tonight's 00z EURO... but still... looks noice to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 It's looking like a pretty decent heavy rain/wind event for early next week with that low closing off and tracking to the NW of the area. Congrats Ohio. Late next week/weekend looks semi interesting with potential complex interaction between a disturbance ejecting from the SW and northern stream energy dropping down. This has a chance to be further east/colder than the early week system. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 I have been keeping an eye on mid month on the extended GEFS. Here is the latest depiction at h5. Best overall look yet, with what looks like a developing -EPO, and a -NAO. Southern stream should still be active too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 The western ridge with impressive amplitude up into the EPO domain on the 6z GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Lots of wave breaking in this high amplitude pattern leading to cutoffs and eventually maybe a block in the NA with time. This is one way to get it done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 1-3” on the euro for Dec 5 and nobody reports it?? 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 10 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 1-3” on the euro for Dec 5 and nobody reports it?? We were waiting for you out of respect. It’s more believable when you say it. I’m enthused. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 1-3” on the euro for Dec 5 and nobody reports it?? Where are all the snow map posters? I only have access via the freebie sites and I didn't bother looking lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Just now, CAPE said: Where are all the snow map posters? I only have access via the freebie sites and I didn't bother looking lol. I looked through the 3 globals on TT and saw the gfs was really close (just seems to have a warm boundary layer verbatim but 850s below freezing), ggem was wound up and west, and then saw the euro had a good track and looked cold at 850 also. So switched to pivotal and saw the precip. It’s not a huge storm but would be a nice start to winter. For a more bird-in-hand scenario, probably worth keeping an eye on flurries or snow showers behind the big low next Tuesday or Wednesday. If a piece of energy can rotate around, maybe we could get on the board... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I looked through the 3 globals on TT and saw the gfs was really close (just seems to have a warm boundary layer verbatim but 850s below freezing), ggem was wound up and west, and then saw the euro had a good track and looked cold at 850 also. So switched to pivotal and saw the precip. It’s not a huge storm but would be a nice start to winter. For a more bird-in-hand scenario, probably worth keeping an eye on flurries or snow showers behind the big low next Tuesday or Wednesday. If a piece of energy can rotate around, maybe we could get on the board... Yeah I did look at the 6z GFS and it was a glancing blow with boundary temps a tad too mild, but colder air just west. Verbatim it looked like a cold chasing rain deal. Still time for it to morph into something a bit more favorable, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 For posterity. Eps is also moving the good looks up in time. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: For posterity. Eps is also moving the good looks up in time. Wow that LR EPS look is a classic southern slider/mid Atlantic setup. Nice 50/50 style confluence and a positive tilted southern stream along with the obvious PNA ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: 1-3” on the euro for Dec 5 and nobody reports it?? Not how we roll. We don’t get excited for nuisance snows. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Not how we roll. We don’t get excited for nuisance snows. Except in this case some folk were sarcastically claiming it would be worse this year...a 1-3 incher would put that to bed immediately, lol And I put a guess out there that we'd see more than 1.8"...so I'd have a bit of investment in that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Wow that LR EPS look is a classic southern slider/mid Atlantic setup. Nice 50/50 style confluence and a positive tilted southern stream along with the obvious PNA ridge It's a really nice look. I don't know about the EPS at Day 15, but the GEPS and GEFS have an absolutely gorgeous pattern. Somehow the GEFS has normal/AN surface temps with that setup...which, no chance in hell. GEPS (which does seem to have some cold bias, I guess from being Canadian) has us BN or MBN which fits with that 500mb pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 Any snow, in any amount, at any time, is good. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It's a really nice look. I don't know about the EPS at Day 15, but the GEPS and GEFS have an absolutely gorgeous pattern. Somehow the GEFS has normal/AN surface temps with that setup...which, no chance in hell. GEPS (which does seem to have some cold bias, I guess from being Canadian) has us BN or MBN which fits with that 500mb pattern. I'm just pretending we are now in a moderate Nino. This is fun. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It's a really nice look. I don't know about the EPS at Day 15, but the GEPS and GEFS have an absolutely gorgeous pattern. Somehow the GEFS has normal/AN surface temps with that setup...which, no chance in hell. GEPS (which does seem to have some cold bias, I guess from being Canadian) has us BN or MBN which fits with that 500mb pattern. It’s sweet. I originally picked an earlier panel to show that it was moving up and not getting kicked. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 26, 2020 Share Posted November 26, 2020 2 hours ago, CAPE said: The western ridge with impressive amplitude up into the EPO domain on the 6z GEFS. The call for a - EPO during mid December is gaining some traction on the long range models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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